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View Full Version : Jiri Welsch Breaks Out.


MavKikiNYC
12-10-2003, 09:21 PM
Welsch put up a very nice line in the Celtics 126-112 win over the Sonics--25 minutes, 17 points on 7-9 shooting (1-1 3s), 4 rebs, 4 assts, 3 steals.

I think Mavs shoulda kept this boy.

bogey
12-11-2003, 12:12 AM
I like Jiri, but I also like Walker at this point.

Max Power
12-11-2003, 12:58 AM
At this point this stat line falls into the "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile" category.

Gator Mike
12-11-2003, 08:07 AM
Originally posted by: Max Power
At this point this stat line falls into the "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile" category.
I'm not saying Antoine isn't a good addition for the Mavs, but Jiri's turning into a player...

His last nine games in Boston:

30.9 Minutes per Game
10.0 Points per Game
50.0% Field Goal Percentage
40.0% 3-Point Field Goal Percentage
4.1 Rebounds per Game
3.6 Assists per Game
1.2 Turnovers per Game
3.0 Assist to Turnover Ratio
1.9 Steals per Game

He's getting some playing time at small forward, and he's doing a nice job. Shooting a high percentage; creating some shots; not turning the ball over as much; doing a good job on the defensive end; and his team is 5-4 since he started getting serious minutes.

The MavKikiNYC might actually be right... Dallas could regret trading him at some point.

Simon2
12-11-2003, 08:24 AM
I wouldn't say he's arrived till he averages more than 10 pts a game. I will be interesting to see what kind of numbers he puts up in the next few games.

kingrex
12-11-2003, 09:27 AM
Nelson and the gang always liked Jiri, but he was expendable with Finley and Howard on the team. Plus, Nellie wouldn't have his coveted "point-forward".

dirno2000
12-11-2003, 09:36 AM
He's in a better situation. He's being force fed minutes in Boston to justify the Walker trade. If he was still here he may play 20-25 minutes one night and pick up a DNP-CD the next.

MavsFanFinley
12-11-2003, 10:32 AM
Howard and Daniels help make up the loss of Welsch. I wish the Mavs could have held on to him, but no room for him here with everyone else.

He's going to be a player, but like Dirno said, he's in a better place. A young player like that needs the playing time and room for error. He wouldn't get that here.

Epitome22
12-11-2003, 04:15 PM
Put Josh Howard on a team where he gets 30 minutes a game and he would probably put up comparable numbers.

Dirkenstien
12-13-2003, 03:36 PM
Originally posted by: Epitome22
Put Josh Howard on a team where he gets 30 minutes a game and he would probably put up comparable numbers.

lol, no JHo would put those numbers to shame and he is still a rookie whereas Welsch has already had a year to adjust. I have no problem with letting Welsch go considering what we got in return and we simply would not have had enough room for him.

JHo is going to be a much better player than Welsch and in my opinion is already a much better player than Welsch, no doubt about it. I dont regret letting him go at all.

EricaLubarsky
12-16-2003, 03:58 PM
LaF is out
Welsch is averaging 6.2ppg and 2.6rpg

Walker is averaging a double double with 18.2ppg 10rpg 4.7apg
Delk is averaging 7.5ppg 2.7rpg

Welsch is going to be a nice player but I cant say that I miss him.

madape
12-16-2003, 04:48 PM
Jiri was a small price to pay toget Walker on this team. This organization was very excited about his potential when they acquired him. Hell, I was probably more excited about Welch than I was about Jamison. But when someone offers you an all-star big man in his prime for a broken down center and a project off-guard, you take it. Clearly he was a deal-breaker for the Celtics.

Speedy
12-21-2003, 11:59 PM
Another good night for Jiri in a win over the Sixers. 22 pts 4 as 2 stl on 8-12 shooting from the field and 2-4 from behind the arc. I still think you have to make that trade when presented to you, but a part of me wonders if he wouldn't be getting some good minutes at both gaurd positions right now. Add that to the fact we wouldn't be any worse at center, plus we would have a $5mil expiring contract that would come in handy in trading for a center...... not to mention a 1st round pick that is unfotunately becoming more and more valuable.

MavKikiNYC
12-22-2003, 12:01 AM
Originally posted by: Speedy
Another good night for Jiri in a win over the Sixers. 22 pts 4 as 2 stl on 8-12 shooting from the field and 2-4 from behind the arc. I still think you have to make that trade when presented to you, but a part of me wonders if he wouldn't be getting some good minutes at both gaurd positions right now. Add that to the fact we wouldn't be any worse at center, plus we would have a $5mil expiring contract that would come in handy in trading for a center...... not to mention a 1st round pick that is unfotunately becoming more and more valuable.

Stop. You're makin' me ill.

Speedy
12-22-2003, 12:07 AM
Originally posted by: MavKikiNYC

Originally posted by: Speedy
Another good night for Jiri in a win over the Sixers. 22 pts 4 as 2 stl on 8-12 shooting from the field and 2-4 from behind the arc. I still think you have to make that trade when presented to you, but a part of me wonders if he wouldn't be getting some good minutes at both gaurd positions right now. Add that to the fact we wouldn't be any worse at center, plus we would have a $5mil expiring contract that would come in handy in trading for a center...... not to mention a 1st round pick that is unfotunately becoming more and more valuable.

Stop. You're makin' me ill.

Kiki, I feel the same. I honestly almost didn't post it.

MavKikiNYC
12-22-2003, 08:37 AM
It gets better--

Over the last 10 games, in which Boston is 7-3, Welsch is averaging

14PPG in 32.5MPG, on 52% shooting (53% 3-PT), along with 3.5 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2 STEALSPG and only 1.7 TO PG.

Anyone care to crunch Antoine's stats over the last 10? I don't have the stomach.

Max Power
12-22-2003, 08:54 AM
Originally posted by: MavKikiNYC

Originally posted by: Speedy
Another good night for Jiri in a win over the Sixers. 22 pts 4 as 2 stl on 8-12 shooting from the field and 2-4 from behind the arc. I still think you have to make that trade when presented to you, but a part of me wonders if he wouldn't be getting some good minutes at both gaurd positions right now. Add that to the fact we wouldn't be any worse at center, plus we would have a $5mil expiring contract that would come in handy in trading for a center...... not to mention a 1st round pick that is unfotunately becoming more and more valuable.

Stop. You're makin' me ill.

And we still got rid of one of the worst contracts in basketball - Raef, acquired a nice trading chip - Delk, and acquired a much better expiring contract - Walker. And all we gave up was a shooting guard who is having a nice run?

Oh yeah, we acquired a player who will probably be playing in this year's All-Star Game.

MavKikiNYC
12-22-2003, 09:12 AM
And we still got rid of one of the worst contracts in basketball - Raef, acquired a nice trading chip - Delk, and acquired a much better expiring contract - Walker. And all we gave up was a shooting guard who is having a nice run?

Oh yeah, we acquired a player who will probably be playing in this year's All-Star Game.

This is a happy spin, as long as you believe the Mavs don't intend to sign Walker to a contract mo'bigger, and mo'worser than LaF's. I have no such assurance.

Or do you think they're going to deal him ('Toine) at the deadline to actually get rid of that contract? In which case this first stretch of the season will be meaningless, and Nellie will get to play fruit basket turnover all over again come March--more excuses, more discontinuity, more waiting for them to jell, more helter-skelter lineups and rotations, ... ... ... ... more losses?

And you're thinking Walker goes to the All-Star game? Man, if you're right, the standard for Western Conference All-Star PF-s just plummeted.

Seriously, what do you think will happen with Walker? They trade him, they keep him, they resign him, they let him go to gain cap space?

And as for Delk, how do you think he gets disposed of? Undersized, 'tweener, journeyman utility guards are a dime a dozen on NYC playgrounds.

Finally, with respect to Welsch, the Celtics have a player with a lite contract, with a big upside, who is contributing more in terms of positive effect on team performance in recent games than the player they gave up (Walker) is for his team.

Never underestimate the notions of "fit" and "chemistry". The Celtics appear to be developing it; the Mavericks do not. Danny Ainge's perceived IQ just took an upward spike.

Max Power
12-22-2003, 09:28 AM
Fit and chemistry gets you into the playoffs. Talent wins championships. I like going to the playoffs, it is better than the alternative. But I'd like to know what a championship feels like. Welsch is NOT the missing piece in the Mavs championship puzzle. Walker might be, or at least the player we trade Walker for might be.

We gave up nothing of value except the no-defense playing Welsch (hmm - maybe he IS a better fit for the Mavs) and gained either a better player or a very good trading chip.

Advantage Dallas.

MavKikiNYC
12-22-2003, 10:02 AM
Max--

I think you have it backward--talent gets you to the playoffs; fit and chemsitry advance you in the playoffs, and DEFENSE wins championships.

Walker has some talent. He got to the playoffs with the Celts (in the admittedly weaker lEastern Conference). But his and Pierce's talent could only ever take the Celts so far. Not Walker's fault per se, just a fact.

The Mavs will probably make the playoffs with all the talent they have, assuming they jell enough to fight off hungry teams like the Rockets, Warrior and Clippers. How far they advance will depend on how fast and the extent to which they jell, which is where things start to get really questionable. A championship, IMO, is out of the question at this point because they won't ever play enough defense to close the deal.

Walker/Delk for LaF/Welsch/Mills looked to be a big upgrade in talent for the Mavs. But the talent upgrade came at the cost of fit and chemistry. They will get to the playoffs, but their prospects are far from certain beyond that. Walker is in Dallas, doing his thing, but the Mavs appear to've slipped significantly after the dust has settled. Delk, after a quick start, is showing why he's played for like six teams in his NBA career.

Welsch looked to be a non-entity in the trade--a flyer, a future prospect. Turns out he's producing much sooner than expected, while LaF is, once again, the cypher.

Bottom line, the results, i.e. lopsidedness, isn't nearly as stark as people thought. Walker isn't helping the Mavs as much as people expected. Welsch is doing more for the Celts than anticipated. Advantage probably still goes to Dallas, but it's a lot grayer than it looked at the time of the deal, and depending on what the Mavs do with Walker and his contract, the gap in favor of the Mavericks can narrow even further. If Welsch continues to improve, this deal will eventually bite Nellie in the ass.

Back to the question: What do you think the Mavs will do with Walker--keep, trade, resign, let go? The eventual result of this question is significant as to how the deal should ultimately be evaluated. What's your take?

Max Power
12-22-2003, 01:13 PM
IMO the Mavs will not trade Walker this year. I doubt they make a trade at all. I >DO< think that Sabonis is a done deal. I think we have appr $4M left of our MLE which would be a great signing for Sabonis for a 3 month contract. He shows up mid-March for a month long training camp. The NBA season ends mid-June so he wouldn't be playing for more than 3 months. With the long intervals between games in the playoffs he will have time to rest his knees.

In the offseason, the Mavs will evaluate the season and determine whether to trade Walker then. His value will be at an all time high because he would be on the last year of his contract (assuming he doesn't opt out). IMO the Mavs will keep Walker and add a FA center to the mix.

And I wouldn't dismiss Delk's value so quickly. Delk is a guy that a GM could sell to the local fans as a great addition to a team. YOU know and I know that he is a filler guy but the average fan will see his potential to score 50 points and his glowing press and think they got a good player who happened to get stuck on the wrong team. So Delk is much more palateable asset than a TAW.

Gator Mike
12-22-2003, 02:29 PM
Not that this proves anything, but I think it's kind of interesting...

Points Per Game
2002-03 Mavericks: 103.0
2003-04 Mavericks: 102.1
2002-03 Celtics: 92.7
2003-04 Celtics: 95.3

3-Point Field Goal Percentage
2002-03 Mavericks: 38.1%
2003-04 Mavericks: 32.6%
2002-03 Celtics: 33.4%
2003-04 Celtics: 35.3%

2-Point Field Goal Percentage
2002-03 Mavericks: 47.3%
2003-04 Mavericks: 46.5%
2002-03 Celtics: 45.3%
2003-04 Celtics: 47.6%

Assists Per Game
2002-03 Mavericks: 22.4
2003-04 Mavericks: 22.1
2002-03 Celtics: 19.2
2003-04 Celtics: 22.1

Turnovers Per Game
2002-03 Mavericks: 11.1
2003-04 Mavericks: 12.2
2002-03 Celtics: 13.5
2003-04 Celtics: 15.0

FG Percentage Differential
2002-03 Mavericks: +1.5%
2003-04 Mavericks: -1.0%
2002-03 Celtics: -2.0%
2003-04 Celtics: +2.4%

Rebound Differential
2002-03 Mavericks: -3.4
2003-04 Mavericks: +1.6
2002-03 Celtics: -4.5
2003-04 Celtics: -1.9

Point Differential
2002-03 Mavericks: +7.8
2003-04 Mavericks: +3.9
2002-03 Celtics: -0.4
2003-04 Celtics: +0.4

Winning Percentage
2002-03 Mavericks: .732
2003-04 Mavericks: .577
2002-03 Celtics: .537
2003-04 Celtics: .500


We gave up nothing of value except the no-defense playing Welsch
Celtics' assistant Dick Harter (...who has forgotten more about NBA-caliber defense than you and I combined, multiplied by ten) says Jiri is very good defender.

Max Power
12-22-2003, 02:32 PM
Originally posted by: Gator Mike

We gave up nothing of value except the no-defense playing Welsch
Celtics' assistant Dick Harter (...who has forgotten more about NBA-caliber defense than you and I combined, multiplied by ten) says Jiri is very good defender.

We will have to agree to disagree. The coach of a particular player is unlikely to be objective. Plus I'd have to read the qualifier. "Jiri is a good defender for a rookie" for example.

DallasMavericksFan
12-22-2003, 08:13 PM
If Jiri was playing in the West then his numbers would not be what they are in the East.
The Celtics have barely beat Cleveland and the Sixers (without Allan Iverson) in recent weeks when Jiri has played well. That says a lot.

To different NBA's the East and the West.

WayOutWest
12-22-2003, 08:40 PM
Originally posted by: DallasMavericksFan
If Jiri was playing in the West then his numbers would not be what they are in the East.
The Celtics have barely beat Cleveland and the Sixers (without Allan Iverson) in recent weeks when Jiri has played well. That says a lot.

To different NBA's the East and the West.


The west is dominated by front court players and the east is dominated by back court players. The east is tougher defensively for a back court player like Jiri.

Gator Mike
12-22-2003, 09:09 PM
Jiri's six best scoring games this season:

22 points vs. Philadelphia
21 points vs. Dallas
19 points at Denver
17 points vs. Seattle
14 points vs. Utah
13 points at Cleveland

MightyToine
12-22-2003, 09:30 PM
Originally posted by: dirno2000
He's in a better situation. He's being force fed minutes in Boston to justify the Walker trade. If he was still here he may play 20-25 minutes one night and pick up a DNP-CD the next.




EXACTLY!!!!!!!! If you're gonna play a young player heavy minutes, then OF COURSE he's going to produce SOMETHING. i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

DallasMavericksFan
12-22-2003, 09:42 PM
The West is better period and Jiri would be looking like a fish out of water if he played here.
Should I start a list of players who would kill him?

MightyToine
12-22-2003, 09:48 PM
Originally posted by: DallasMavericksFan
The West is better period and Jiri would be looking like a fish out of water if he played here.
Should I start a list of players who would kill him?



Najera on bad knees would kill him. 'nuff said. i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif

MavKikiNYC
12-22-2003, 09:49 PM
Originally posted by: MightyToine

Originally posted by: dirno2000
He's in a better situation. He's being force fed minutes in Boston to justify the Walker trade. If he was still here he may play 20-25 minutes one night and pick up a DNP-CD the next.

EXACTLY!!!!!!!! If you're gonna play a young player heavy minutes, then OF COURSE he's going to produce SOMETHING. i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

Except, why didn't that work with LaF?

MightyToine
12-22-2003, 11:04 PM
Originally posted by: MavKikiNYC

Originally posted by: MightyToine

Originally posted by: dirno2000
He's in a better situation. He's being force fed minutes in Boston to justify the Walker trade. If he was still here he may play 20-25 minutes one night and pick up a DNP-CD the next.

EXACTLY!!!!!!!! If you're gonna play a young player heavy minutes, then OF COURSE he's going to produce SOMETHING. i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

Except, why didn't that work with LaF?



Umm........because he sucked? i/expressions/rolleye.gif

Gator Mike
12-23-2003, 08:11 AM
Originally posted by: MightyToine
EXACTLY!!!!!!!! If you're gonna play a young player heavy minutes, then OF COURSE he's going to produce SOMETHING. i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

Jiri IS in a better situation, but he's not being force-fed minutes. He didn't start the first 18 games of the year, and the Celtics went 7-13, playing mostly Eastern Conference teams. He's finally inserted into the starting lineup, and all of the sudden, the Celtics are now 14-14, tied for first place in the admittedly pathetic Atlantic Division. But over the last 10 games, Boston has played mostly Western Conference teams, including your beloved Mavericks.

Jiri's a big reason for the recent turnaround.

Paul Pierce: "Jiri is my go-to guy."

Vin Baker: "He's running the team. He's been playing great. There's really great plays that he's making out there."

Jim O'Brien: "He's doing so many important things for us. The other thing is that big people think they can go at him - post him and isolate him - but he's a good defensive player. He's been such a key element to our team. For him to be a part of what is right now a first-place team, and I have made no bones about it - I had no idea who this guy was when he came from Dallas. To Danny's credit he really thought highly of this guy. It's made for tremendous dividends to have Jiri with us.''

Jiri's stats over the last 9 games:

Celtics Record: 7-2
Minutes Per Game: 32.1
Points Per Game: 14.5
Field Goal Percentage: 54.5%
3-point FG Percentage: 51.8%
Points Per Shot: 1.48

He can REALLY shoot, he moves well off the ball, he can pass, he can handle the ball, he's got a really high basketball IQ, he can defend... the kid is just a real good player. There's no harm in Mavs fans admitting that they gave the Celtics a pretty good player.

MightyToine
12-23-2003, 08:21 AM
Originally posted by: Gator Mike

Originally posted by: MightyToine
EXACTLY!!!!!!!! If you're gonna play a young player heavy minutes, then OF COURSE he's going to produce SOMETHING. i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif

Jiri IS in a better situation, but he's not being force-fed minutes. He didn't start the first 18 games of the year, and the Celtics went 7-13, playing mostly Eastern Conference teams. He's finally inserted into the starting lineup, and all of the sudden, the Celtics are now 14-14, tied for first place in the admittedly pathetic Atlantic Division. But over the last 10 games, Boston has played mostly Western Conference teams, including your beloved Mavericks.

Jiri's a big reason for the recent turnaround.

Paul Pierce: "Jiri is my go-to guy."

Vin Baker: "He's running the team. He's been playing great. There's really great plays that he's making out there."

Jim O'Brien: "He's doing so many important things for us. The other thing is that big people think they can go at him - post him and isolate him - but he's a good defensive player. He's been such a key element to our team. For him to be a part of what is right now a first-place team, and I have made no bones about it - I had no idea who this guy was when he came from Dallas. To Danny's credit he really thought highly of this guy. It's made for tremendous dividends to have Jiri with us.''

Jiri's stats over the last 9 games:

Celtics Record: 7-2
Minutes Per Game: 32.1
Points Per Game: 14.5
Field Goal Percentage: 54.5%
3-point FG Percentage: 51.8%
Points Per Shot: 1.48

He can REALLY shoot, he moves well off the ball, he can pass, he can handle the ball, he's got a really high basketball IQ, he can defend... the kid is just a real good player. There's no harm in Mavs fans admitting that they gave the Celtics a pretty good player.



Our "beloved" Mavericks built up a HUGE LEAD on the Celtics with Welsch, if you recall....It was the stupid Zone and LACK OF MAN-TO-MAN Defense that Cost us.

Oh and I have no problem saying that Jiri is turning out to be a nice player to the C's. But I still think the Mavs got the better Player. i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif