At this point, all you can do is laugh

[darkwitzki]

Everyone's afraid during crunchtime, that's why.. Terry just got the guts to throw it out in the closing seconds, but nice effort though, were going to need more of 'em.

[basketballgirl25]

don't lose faith yet, I for one think Mavericks still could be a good team, hopefully they win against the Knicks when I go, that will be a good start. They just can't go in thinking "This is the Knicks it is a easy win" if they do that they could lose. They have a good chance of winning though, Knicks are better this year but still the Knicks

[Bookit]

Originally Posted by Itachi

It's kind of sad...we could have won each of last few games, but we found ways to lose.

I remember Brad Davis talking about the first Mavericks season where they only won 15 games. He said that it was funny because the team was right there in position to win most games and lost then right at the end. Sounds familiar.

[Bookit]

It might be time to break out the baghead avatars.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by darkwitzki

Everyone's afraid during crunchtime, that's why.. Terry just got the guts to throw it out in the closing seconds, but nice effort though, were going to need more of 'em.

Being afraid of winning or just not having confidence in your own qualities at the end of a close game is perhaps the ultimate sign of mental problems that can hardly be solved without changing a team. It's possible to make them seem irreleveant or even gone by winning games and gaining confidence, but as soon as a close game is lost all of the doubts might be back.

During our 67-win season in 06-07 we were literally notorious for defeating opponents in the very last minute and hardly lost any of those games. We had the mental edge, so to speak, that seemingly couldn't even be influenced by the loss against Miami in the 2006 finals and an 0-4 record at the beginning of the season. But then, there was the Golden State series, and I do believe that this totally unexpected defeat had our core players question their own abilities or at least the ability as a team to win it all.

In 05-06 and 06-07, after a 2-0 advantage over Miami and a 67-win season, the players lost their confidence in just being better than the opponent. Not only that, they also could have believed that prior achievements might not even matter for the outcome. And then, during last season, we also lost our confidence in being able to close out games successfully and being clutch by losing almost every close at the end of the season with the exception of two games against Phoenix and Utah.

Basically, we have lost every advantage we had that was not based on box score numbers. Even Kidd couldn't change that by bringing leadership and experience, and one can hardly expect young players like Bass, Green, or Wright to positively influence older players and make them believe in themselves again. It's the other way around. Sooner or later players like Bass and Green will start questioning themselves and doubting their impact.

I could certainly be wrong, but the number of rebounds or turnovers alone, or the Kidd trade (that actually improved us, IMHO), or Dirk not being Dirk in three games, or Josh being out of action can't be the reasons for a 2-7 record. It seems like a marriage that has run its course and can't be saved by adding a counselor. Perhaps it would be best to let go and regroup.

[erdubya]

Originally Posted by Burn this City

I expected the loss so that doesn't really bother me too much...seeing this headline does:

"Harris' 30 in return gets Nets by Hawks."

Or what about this headline..

"Avery Johnson comes down with an extreme case of giggle-itus."

[horse900703]

I have nothing to say now~

[Sportstudi]

Originally Posted by GermanDunk

6 o clock in the mornin´ and i drink a beer.

I should have done that as well instead of going to bed directly after watching this crap. Probably I would have felt better afterwards. Well, I will have some beers this evening then and I ask myself why I am still ruining my nights without a break just for watching another loss?

[alby]

Originally Posted by horse900703

I have nothing to say now~

moral victory.

[GermanDunk]

Originally Posted by Sportstudi

I should have done that as well instead of going to bed directly after watching this crap. Probably I would have felt better afterwards. Well, I will have some beers this evening then and I ask myself why I am still ruining my nights without a break just for watching another loss?

I definitively will NOT watch basketball today. After the soccer matches i´ll go to work and then zzz

[Darth Ape]

Don Nelson and Avery Johnson are laughing their asses off

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Darth Ape

Don Nelson and Avery Johnson are laughing their asses off

Golden State looks like they suck this year.

[Sportstudi]

Originally Posted by GermanDunk

I definitively will NOT watch basketball today. After the soccer matches i´ll go to work and then zzz

Don't worry, Dallas won't play tonight...

[Underdog]

Real Victories 2-7

Moral Victories 2-7

[GermanDunk]

Originally Posted by Sportstudi

Don't worry, Dallas won't play tonight...

They won´t play tomorrow for me either...i think...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Hey...the good news is Stackhouse is shooting 29% from the field and 18% from the three point line.

Clank, Clank, Clank, Continues the Stackhouse!!

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Darth Ape

Don Nelson and Avery Johnson are laughing their asses off

At the fans...probably.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by sike

Riley said, "The rest of them can't beat us...stop Dirk at all costs and then dare the others to make open shots."

The Heat said, "let's double and triple Dirk.. no one else on the team is good enough to consistently beat us." Honestly, if the rest of the team doesn't make you pay, then you can do that with virtually any superstar.

[sike]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

The Heat said, "let's double and triple Dirk.. no one else on the team is good enough to consistently beat us." Honestly, if the rest of the team doesn't make you pay, then you can do that with virtually any superstar.

This is certainly true to a point, but most "superstar" players we can name will more often beat double teams than Dirk. They are either fast enough to break them down or powerful enough to occasionally dominate down low or draw fouls and get to the line.

Dirk's freakish combination of size and speed that makes him nearly unstoppable in the one on one game becomes an oddly sluggishly weak combination when facing double teams. He is just not fast enough to dribble through and around them and he is not a strong enough to power through them on the post.

This, to me, is Dirk's fatal flaw. Its not his fault that he is a 7 foot perimeter player...and an overwhelming amount of the time its a huge positive. His game simply demands having the presence of better shooting supporting cast than other "superstar" types.

[Murphy3]

An easy way to beat the double team would be for Dirk to pass the ball out of the post and then re-post and force the team to double again.. each time they do so, the more likely they are to expose themselves to scoring opportunities.

Sike, I really don't buy into your post. Dirk won an MVP award after Riley and the Heat upset the Mavs. Dirk showed that he can get involved more in the passing game and still score around 18-20 points even with the hard doubles.. but, the Mavs really never made opponents pay. The Mavs have never had the guy that would cut to the bucket either with or without the ball via the pass from Dirk. The Mavs were mostly just a group of jumpshooters. This is the primary reason why forcing Dirk to pass the ball worked against the Mavs. The Mavs were a team of jumpshooters.. and some of them weren't even that good at hitting the outside shot.

[vinylstar]

Originally Posted by Burn this City

I think Keith Van Horn is our only hope...

He hung up his tube socks.

[dude1394]

Having teams double and triple dirk is much better than having jet try to win it one-on-one. My options right now would be get the ball to dirk...let him try to give it up out of the double-team...2a has to be howard and jet never is allowed to just dribble the ball around.

In fact...I'd think hard about getting him off the floor at the end if I could...His defense is killing me.

I know that looks like avery's post up...but carlisle is NOT getting any type of motion offense at the end of games either....it's devolved into iso's as well...which I don't see changing anytime soon.

He's going to have to give it to dirk as the closer or he's going to have to get this motion offense working...I don't see that thing working much at the end of games...so it's probably number 1....He's just going to have to live with that while he figures out how to get the team to play motion all game I think.

[BGMaverick9]

Both sike and Murphy are right but there is still a major problem.

Sike has it right where his ability and size are a strength and a curse because it is a struggle to attack and split the double teams and when he drives, he gets brutal attacks at times and doesn't get a call. Now you can say he doesn't take it fully strong, but he's trying in that sense.

Now with Murphy's point. Yeah, he can dish it out and repost, but that doesn't happen...and if he does, the ball doesn't get back to him. It's a sound strategy but a lot of times, he just doesn't get it back and everyone else goes without incorporating him back into the play.

[jthig32]

The only superstars less bothered by double teams are those who can dribble, meaning they're harder to double.

What I think has not been mentioned yet is that when Dirk is doubled, it's usually at the high post or higher, making it harder to make other teams pay for the double.

When you double Duncan on the block someone somewhere is open, and you can kick it out and swing it around. It's harder to make a team pay doubling Dirk where he usually operates.

That, in my opinion, is the biggest factor. So when Sike says Dirk's abilities make it harder for him to beat double teams, I think he's wrong. Duncan doesn't score through double teams. Very few post players do. But teams pay a higher price for doubling a post man.

[dirno2000]

I'm watching last nights highlights on NBA TV and something just occurred to me when they showed Devin's stat line. In his last two games he's shot 36 FT's. In the Mavs last two games Josh leads the team with 21 while Dirk, Diop and Damp are in a three way tie for second with 6 each.

[dirno2000]

Originally Posted by jthig32

The only superstars less bothered by double teams are those who can dribble, meaning they're harder to double.

What I think has not been mentioned yet is that when Dirk is doubled, it's usually at the high post or higher, making it harder to make other teams pay for the double.

When you double Duncan on the block someone somewhere is open, and you can kick it out and swing it around. It's harder to make a team pay doubling Dirk where he usually operates.

That, in my opinion, is the biggest factor. So when Sike says Dirk's abilities make it harder for him to beat double teams, I think he's wrong. Duncan doesn't score through double teams. Very few post players do. But teams pay a higher price for doubling a post man.

I disagree with this. The farther out on the floor you double team someone the more you expose you defense. The low post double is the safest because the open players are on the perimeter. When you double a player at the high post and out you're very susceptible to giving up a layup. That's why, outside of blitzing a pick and roll, you almost never see teams double PG's.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

I disagree with this. The farther out on the floor you double team someone the more you expose you defense. The low post double is the safest because the open players are on the perimeter. When you double a player at the high post and out you're very susceptible to giving up a layup. That's why, outside of blitzing a pick and roll, you almost never see teams double PG's.

Teams don't double team PG's because they can dribble around them and control the game much better.

Perhaps if the Mavs had an offensive threat down low doubling Dirk at the high post would be dangerous. But all you have to do is watch the Mavs and see how rarely teams are beaten when doubling Dirk to see the logic in play.

When you play a two man game with a post up player, you either have to leave the post feeder open up top or leave a weak side three point shooter open.

[sike]

The simple fact is that Dirk is not quick enough off the dribble or strong enough to consistently split double teams (and yes, healthy Tim Duncan splits doubles, thig).

You can get around this by passing out and then re-posting the ball...and then they double again and you kick it out again...and so on and so on until someone is jacking up a rushed shot (but getting the ball out of the doubled offensive player's hands is the double team WORKING!). When you have to kick out of a double, it has just forced you to do what it was intended to do. I know there are ways to game plan around it, but that is my point, Dirk doesn't beat double teams without passing out of it. And our personnel hasn't been able to make opponents pay for taking this approach with Dirk.

My point is that double teams are more effective at taking Dirk out of his game than "most" other superstar players. It boggles the mind why every team in the league doesn't attempt to play him this way every minute he is on the court.

[sike]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Sike, I really don't buy into your post. Dirk won an MVP award after Riley and the Heat upset the Mavs.

I've addressed this in this very thread already. Most teams do not apply the "double dirk" approach for 40 minutes a night. Either they lack the personnel to be effective or they lack a coach willing to do something so drastic.

[Mavs Rule]

Originally Posted by sike

This is certainly true to a point, but most "superstar" players we can name will more often beat double teams than Dirk. They are either fast enough to break them down or powerful enough to occasionally dominate down low or draw fouls and get to the line.

Dirk's freakish combination of size and speed that makes him nearly unstoppable in the one on one game becomes an oddly sluggishly weak combination when facing double teams. He is just not fast enough to dribble through and around them and he is not a strong enough to power through them on the post.

This, to me, is Dirk's fatal flaw. Its not his fault that he is a 7 foot perimeter player...and an overwhelming amount of the time its a huge positive. His game simply demands having the presence of better shooting supporting cast than other "superstar" types.

WOW, this is one insightful post. Bravo Sike! I think Riley showed the first glimpse of this in the Finals that year. But everyone took notice when the Warriors played us like this, and it has been downhill since. The fatal flaw is now common knowledge and superman has been rendered mere mortal by the cryptanite.

[BGMaverick9]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Teams don't double team PG's because they can dribble around them and control the game much better.

Perhaps if the Mavs had an offensive threat down low doubling Dirk at the high post would be dangerous. But all you have to do is watch the Mavs and see how rarely teams are beaten when doubling Dirk to see the logic in play.

When you play a two man game with a post up player, you either have to leave the post feeder open up top or leave a weak side three point shooter open.

Either that with the low post threat or a top level SG that can score from anywhere...
Both of those have been terrible issues for the team.

Teams can basically play off of Damp because he may dribble in the paint but he'll hardly do anything with it other than drain time off the clock.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by Stranger

We've been right there in several games so far. But then come the killer turnovers, missed free-throws, stupid fouls... I've pretty much come to expect it.

Stranger may have come closer in one sentence than anyone else has to my way of thinking.

Look at the stat line from last night. The Mavs won every stat category convincingly except for...

1)a 37 to 23 disadvantage in free throws taken (see Stranger's "stupid fouls" which I would clarify as stupid shooting fouls which is always an indication of poor movement in defense, getting out of position); this stat gave the Magic 8 points in the net difference.

2)turnover disadvantage of 16 to 13. I don't know how much difference this really made.

3)as to "missed free throws", the Mavs shot a higher percentage and it is hard to complain about hitting 19 of 23. The problem is that the Magic got to shoot 37 free throws.

Here are a few quotes from the Yahoo news article about the Mavs' loss:

"The Magic were down by as many as 15 and by 11 early in the fourth quarter. They were outshot, outrebounded and crushed on points in the paint and fast-break points. Basically, they lost every category but the one that mattered most, beating the careening Mavericks 102-100 on Friday night.

“We didn’t do much well,” Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy said. “What we did was hang in there and made plays at the end. To get this win says a lot about our team. I’m as proud as I’ve been of them all year. This was outstanding, even though if you look on paper we didn’t play very well.” "...

"Dallas had seven more rebounds, five more assists and two more steals than Orlando. The Mavericks made 44 percent of their shots, the Magic only 39. They had a 44-22 advantage on points in the paint and a 24-14 edge in fast-break points.

“We didn’t do anything but get the win,” Nelson said. “That’s all that counts.” "...

"Kidd also had six turnovers and fouled out on the play that sent Lewis to the line for the winning points." [that statement hints at the turnover and shooting foul problems that caused defeat].

The free throw/shooting foul issue is, to my mind, the primary reason the Mavs have lost several of their games. Let's review the short year so far: (going from here backwards)

Chicago game. Actually, in this game the fouls and free throws were pretty equal. The Mavs had two primary problems in that game: poor shooting percentage (great defense play by Chicago with an offense that is struggling in the half court set) and a 13 to 6 disadvantage in turnovers. Dallas again shot a slightly better free throw percentage than did the Bulls.

Lakers: free throws and fouls again equal. Again, a disadvantage in turnovers 21 to 15 (both teams turning the ball over a lot). Lakers enjoy a shooting percentage advantage and a shots taken advantage. Looks like the turnovers were a prime issue in this game.

Clippers: Dallas just shot poorly. Dallas won every other category including shots taken and turnovers. Fouls and free throws were equal. Again, the shooting percentage is an issue of a struggling offense with an adequate strategy in the half court set...

Denver: definitely a game lost by committing too many shooting fouls. Dallas won every every statistical category but allowed Denver to shoot 40 free throws to our 16...
Again an issue of being out of position on defense and swatting desperately...

San Antonio: Dallas wins by shooting "lights out". Huge shooting percentage advantage. Dallas only took 5 free throws the whole game... Spurs took 20 which is probably average. Dallas whipped the Spurs on the boards and turnovers were not a problem (7 for each team). Dallas took more shots as a function of the rebounding advantage. Dallas has a shots taken advantage and a rebound advantage in pretty much every single game so far except for the ones where the turnover disadvantage was large.

Cleveland: 32 free throws to 26 disadvantage. shot poorly, big shooting percentage disadvantage. Cleveland kicked our arse on rebounds, the only team to do so this year. 14 to 10 turnvoer disadvantage.

Minnesota: Dallas wins primarily by shooting a lot better than the Wolves who shot pathetically. Dallas did not shoot impressively. The Wolves just sucked that night. No other important stat here..

Houston: the only game where Dallas had a free throws taken advantage. But, the Rockets hit nearly all of theirs to get more points from the line than the Mavs and the Mavs did not shoot poorly from the line. Main stat here is that Dallas shot poorly and the Rockets shot "lights out" including hitting 50% of their 3 pointers. Rebounding fairly equal, fouls fairly equal, other stats fairly even.

___________

So, my conclusions:
1)Dallas definitlely lost two games so far due to large free throws taken disadvantages (Magic and Nuggets). This is evidence of weak defense and desperation efforts (shooting fouls). Also a big factor in the Cleveland game.

2)Dallas has rarely shot a higher percentage than their opposition. Dallas is primarily suffering to generate effective offense in half court sets. IMO, needs a low post threat. Glad to see Dampier more involved in the offense. Need Dirk down in the post more? That is debatable as he is better in the mid and long range positions. Bass? Don't know. Antonio McDyess? Dreaming now, probably can't do it under the CBA since we didn't trade for him.

3)turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Kidd has had a lot. Hard to complain about Kidd, he has been our MVP so far. Playing a lot of new faces and combos between the SG and SF positions and several are young.

4)Terry and Dirk "off" on long range shooting. This will probably self correct.



My observations of good things with the Mavs (silver lining):
1)Except for the Cleveland game, Mavs are at worst equal in rebounding and usually have an advantage.

2)Mavs usually have a shots taken advantage (except for when they have a lot of turnovers).

3)Dampier having his best year with Carlisle than any previous year so far. More points, more minutes, fewer fouls, more rebounds.

4)Dirk playing with more enthusiasm than he did last year under Avery.

5)JKidd playing better under Carlisle' system than he did under Avery.

6)JHo playing better under Carlisle than he did under Avery.

I really think that if the Mavs do these things that they will turn the year around:

1)stop the shooting fouls. play better defense with their legs to get their bodies in position.
2)stop the turnovers. This is a function of pathetic half court offense.
3)improve the half court offensive schemes so that we are taking shots we want instead of "buzzer/shot clock beaters".

I think the above is do-able.

But, I think Dallas needs a low post scoring threat to become a top contender. I don't think Dallas can go deep in the playoffs without improving that issue somehow.


From the website 82games.com, you can find the team stat of block/foul (number of blocked shots divided by the number of shooting fouls).

Dallas on defense has a block/foul ratio of .34
The Dallas opposition's defense has a ratio against the Mavs of .38
So, the Mavs have a disadvantage overall on the issue of shooting fouls versus successfully blocked shots. Dallas blocks a lot of shots (check out the stats), so that means that Dallas commits a ton of shooting fouls (see the stats for support).

For comparison, look at the Celtics:
The Celtics ratio is .46 meaning that they have roughly one blocked shot per every two shooting fouls (which means that one out of every 3 attempted blocked shots is cleanly blocked and 2 result in shooting fouls; naturally, an attempt to block a shot that neither produced a foul or a block would not show up in this stat). That ratio of .46 is for their defensive effort. On Celtic offense, the ratio of the opposing defense is .33, meaning that the opposition defense gets one block for every 3 shooting fouls which means that one of every 4 attempts is successful and the other 3 attempts produce free throws for the Celtics. That is a big ratio difference in the Celtics' favor.

[wmbwinn]

From 82games.com

For the Mavs:

On defense: 655 shots attempted (against the Mavs)
34 of those shots were blocked (5.2% shots blocked by Mav defense)
100 shooting fouls committed
.34 ratio blocks/shooting foul

Think about those numbers… That means that roughly one of every 6.5 shots taken against us earns free throws against us. Disgusting.

On offense (stats this time are what the opposition defense did to us):

675 shots taken by the Mavs (advantage in shots taken, largely due to rebounding advantages IMO)
32 of our shots are blocked (4.7%)
84 shooting fouls committed against us (675/84= roughly 1 shooting foul against us per 8 shots we take)
Ratio of .38 blocks/shooting fouls against us

Now, lets break down the turnovers and fouls further from the same 82games.com page
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809DAL3.HTM

Dallas has:
8 offensive fouls
47 lost bad passes
51 ball handling losses
2 “other” losses/turnovers

Dallas has benefitted from the mistakes of their opponents in total of:
9 offensive fouls
50 bad passes
37 ball handling losses (note the huge difference against us in this category)
0 “other losses”

Dallas has committed these fouls:
100 shooting fouls
44 personal fouls
13 loose ball fouls
10 “other fouls”

Dallas has benefitted from the following fouls against us in total for the year:
84 shooting fouls (big disadvantage in net difference)
49 personal fouls
15 loose ball fouls
9 “other fouls”

As a measure of our half court offensive woes, see on the same page linked above a break down of where we are shooting from…

71% of our shots are perimeter jump shots with 41% success
23% of our shots are close to the basket with 52% success
3% are dunks
3% are tips (55% success)

Now, what does our defense allow the opposition?

64% are perimeter jump shots with 41% success
29% are close to the basket with 50% success
5% are dunks
2% are tips with 67% success

Anyway, the above further supports the view that the Mavs:
1)commit too many turnovers, especially ball handling turnovers
2)commit too many shooting fouls
3)have half court offensive problems forcing an inordinate number of long perimeter shots

[Zki41]

In 06-07 weren't we like an 83% free throw shooting team which was the highest ranked (Including Dirk at 90/91%)?

[pepe]

Thanks wmbwinn for the recap...here is another stat opponents bench fg% 42.4%....MAVS a whooping 36.3%

[pepe]

bench opponents 3pt fg% 34%....MAVS 30.2%

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by pepe

Thanks wmbwinn for the recap...here is another stat opponents bench fg% 42.4%....MAVS a whooping 36.3%

Yes, we currently have severe bench deficits. Really, we are a four man team:
JKidd, JHo, Dirk, Dampier.

Everyone else is suspect. Jet comes close to fitting in.

Bass and Gerald Green are close.

Pretty much, the rest are scrubs. Diop can play better. He may be getting fat and lazy on us. He can do better.

Stack is close to done. Wright is a good team player and can be of value.

[DubOverdose]

Originally Posted by Darth Ape

Don Nelson and Avery Johnson are laughing their asses off

As we continue to pay both of them...

[alby]

Winning the Austin League Flag Football championships today was the perfect answer. God that felt good.

[dirno2000]

Devin with 31 points 10 assists and 1 turnover. Good thing we sent the Nets two number 1's to take him off our hands.