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View Poll Results: How many wins do the Mavs have in 2019-2020?
63+ wins 1 2.22%
53-62 wins 0 0%
48-52 wins 9 20.00%
42-47 wins 22 48.89%
36-41 wins 13 28.89%
30-35 wins 0 0%
24-29 wins 0 0%
Fewer than 23 wins 0 0%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-13-2019, 01:25 PM   #1
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Default Mavs record prediction thread

Bball-index has us going 42-40 (which would most likely having us as 9th or 10th in the West with how loaded the west is.)

How many wins do we get this year?
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Old 07-13-2019, 01:33 PM   #2
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That sounds about right to me. I expect the Mavs to be around .500 for the season.
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Old 07-13-2019, 02:35 PM   #3
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I just had this conversation at work with a Lakers and Knicks fan. I expect the Mavs to make the playoffs as one of the last teams and as usual in the West a team will need 50 wins.

So my picks were.

Mavs 50-32 .... I wanted to go with 46 or 48 but it would go against me believing they need 50 to make the playoffs.

Lakers 52-30
Knicks 22-60
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After the 104-102 loss at OKC last Thursday, Terry said "if the Thunder are the pick to win the West, then these re-tooled Mavs are feeling pretty good about things" lol

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Old 07-13-2019, 02:55 PM   #4
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If we win more than 35 games that will be a success.
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Old 07-13-2019, 04:18 PM   #5
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I am still trying to understand some fans on here. Free agency was disappointing for most of us but we also have Luka ...LUKA and KP.

When we talk about duos, everyone dismisses this duo including apparently our own fans because “ KP is coming from an injury” or “ they haven’t played together at all”.

Which duo that came together this summer has played together in any meaningful way recently or for any extended time?

Which due doesn’t have injury concern?

KP missed a season and a half while recovering. I am not one bit concerned about his injury but I will admit he may be rusty. There is a big difference there.

Our role players complement our stars as well as any of the other duos.

So what not 50 games or 45 ?
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After the 104-102 loss at OKC last Thursday, Terry said "if the Thunder are the pick to win the West, then these re-tooled Mavs are feeling pretty good about things" lol

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Old 07-13-2019, 04:34 PM   #6
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This will be a difficult season to predict but I'll play along.

Going down the list, optimistically I'll say we go 46-36.

21-9 against the East
25-27 against the West

I see 4 Tiers in the West:

Tier 1 (5 wins against those 5 teams)
Clips
Warriors
Jazz
Nuggets
Blazers

Tier 2 (3 Wins against those two teams)
Rockets
Lakers

Tier 3 (3 Wins against those two teams)
Mavs
Spurs
Kings

Tier 4 (14 Wins against those 5 teams)
OKC
Wolves
Grizzlies
Suns
Pels

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Old 07-13-2019, 04:42 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by AO41 View Post
I am still trying to understand some fans on here. Free agency was disappointing for most of us but we also have Luka ...LUKA and KP.

When we talk about duos, everyone dismisses this duo including apparently our own fans because “ KP is coming from an injury” or “ they haven’t played together at all”.

Which duo that came together this summer has played together in any meaningful way recently or for any extended time?

Which due doesn’t have injury concern?

KP missed a season and a half while recovering. I am not one bit concerned about his injury but I will admit he may be rusty. There is a big difference there.

Our role players complement our stars as well as any of the other duos.

So what not 50 games or 45 ?
I wish we would win 50 games this year (voted 36-41 but I'm thinking 38-40 wins) but I don't see it. Our two best players are a 20 year old in his second year in the NBA and a 23 year old who hasn't played in over a year and is going to be load managed. Besides them, we don't really have any other players that have started games consistently.

It's possible that Luka improves, KP comes back fully recovered, Powell / Delon / Jackson (or whoever starts as SF) make significant strides to become starter quality players, we avoid serious injuries to any of our players (specially Luka / KP) and we end up winning 50 games, but I think that's unlikely to happen. Maybe in the East, but the West it's too strong this year.

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Old 07-13-2019, 05:25 PM   #8
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My guess is 40 wins. 9th or 10th in the West
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Old 07-13-2019, 10:00 PM   #9
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My guess is 48+ wins. Yeah, we're gonna be really good this year.
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Old 07-14-2019, 02:30 PM   #10
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Much will depend on how much Porzingis is load managed, and how much load Luka is ready to shoulder this season. After DeAndre, Wes, and Barnes were traded last season, things looked really difficult for Luka.
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Old 07-14-2019, 02:50 PM   #11
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Much will depend on how much Porzingis is load managed, and how much load Luka is ready to shoulder this season. After DeAndre, Wes, and Barnes were traded last season, things looked really difficult for Luka.
That was in part because we didn’t have any players who could help him out / get points for the team other than maybe Brunson.

This year we will have better shooters and other guys who can handle the offense a little while Luka rests.

I have heard the “load management a lot” and I am sure there will be some. I don’t think KP will be managed as much as some think. He was out for. Along time RECOVERING and managing. He probably could have come back midway through last season and that’s when he would have been managed. He took the extra time to be safe and so when he finally does come back I don’t expect too much managing to happen.
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Old 07-14-2019, 03:06 PM   #12
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That was in part because we didn’t have any players who could help him out / get points for the team other than maybe Brunson.

This year we will have better shooters and other guys who can handle the offense a little while Luka rests.

I have heard the “load management a lot” and I am sure there will be some. I don’t think KP will be managed as much as some think. He was out for. Along time RECOVERING and managing. He probably could have come back midway through last season and that’s when he would have been managed. He took the extra time to be safe and so when he finally does come back I don’t expect too much managing to happen.
Yeah it's 100% unsurprising that Luka's numbers went down.

Mavs went from having about 3-4 NBA-caliber players to basically 1.5 after that trade. Of course things will be harder for him when he's basically playing with a JV squad and NBA teams have done more scouting on him.

Really hard to say a dude was just tired after he played so many minutes in so many games before it. He's not an NCAA player who is used to a shorter season. Dude just lost and semblance of an NBA supporting cast.
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Old 07-14-2019, 04:21 PM   #13
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I'm still trying to figure out how much better KP/Delon/Seth/Boban are than Barnes/DSJ/Wes/Jordan... Because we aren't adding the new guys to a 33-win team, considering that 26 of those wins came before we traded our core away -- we're adding them to a squad that went 7-18 to close out the season (without tanking)... Obviously Luka is going to continue to grow, but we also lost Dirk, so I'm gonna call that a wash for now.

So how many wins better are KP/Delon/Seth/Boban than Barnes/DSJ/Wes/Jordan? (not just in a player-for-player vacuum, but accounting for fit, growth, likelihood to make it into the starting lineup/Rick's doghouse, etc.)
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Old 07-14-2019, 04:34 PM   #14
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I'm still trying to figure out how much better KP/Delon/Seth/Boban are than Barnes/DSJ/Wes/Jordan... Because we aren't adding the new guys to a 33-win team, considering that 26 of those wins came before we traded our core away -- we're adding them to a squad that went 7-18 to close out the season (without tanking)... Obviously Luka is going to continue to grow, but we also lost Dirk, so I'm gonna call that a wash for now.

So how many wins better are KP/Delon/Seth/Boban than Barnes/DSJ/Wes/Jordan?
Which is why it's puzzling that we gave long contracts to guys that get us 30 wins every season. Obviously KP makes us better, but I've also seen it reported that his minutes will be managed so don't expect over 30 mpg.

It's not that I dislike Powell, Kleber, DFS, or Seth Curry, but if we aren't going to be a winning team next season, then I don't see the point. I guess you have to field a team, but these guys better get us wins. No excuses.
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Old 07-14-2019, 05:02 PM   #15
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That was in part because we didn’t have any players who could help him out / get points for the team other than maybe Brunson.

This year we will have better shooters and other guys who can handle the offense a little while Luka rests.

I have heard the “load management a lot” and I am sure there will be some. I don’t think KP will be managed as much as some think. He was out for. Along time RECOVERING and managing. He probably could have come back midway through last season and that’s when he would have been managed. He took the extra time to be safe and so when he finally does come back I don’t expect too much managing to happen.
I wouldn’t be surprised if KP misses a lot of back to backs, and even though I like the new additions, I’m just not sure they add up to more wins than the DAJ, Wes, Barnes team.
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Old 07-15-2019, 04:11 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AO41 View Post
I am still trying to understand some fans on here. Free agency was disappointing for most of us but we also have Luka ...LUKA and KP.

When we talk about duos, everyone dismisses this duo including apparently our own fans because “ KP is coming from an injury” or “ they haven’t played together at all”.

Which duo that came together this summer has played together in any meaningful way recently or for any extended time?

Which due doesn’t have injury concern?

KP missed a season and a half while recovering. I am not one bit concerned about his injury but I will admit he may be rusty. There is a big difference there.

Our role players complement our stars as well as any of the other duos.

So what not 50 games or 45 ?
Because we have 2 true starters and one will be load managed to my guess of 65-70 games.
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Old 07-15-2019, 09:38 AM   #17
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Sort of related to this. ESPN came up with some power rankings

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...best-teams-now

They have us at 18th right after the Pelicans and before Orlando, which it's probably where I would place the Mavs as well.

Here is what they had to say about the Mavs:

The Mavs failed to add a proven starter in free agency despite entering the summer with almost $30 million in salary-cap space. Guards Seth Curry and Delon Wright, who have been quality reserves, came to Dallas as consolation prizes. Over the past 13 months, the Mavs have managed to add two potential long-term superstar pillars in Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but the goal of making a major leap into the playoffs this season appears quite ambitious in the loaded West. -- MacMahon

Key additions: Seth Curry, Boban Marjanovic, Delon Wright

Key subtractions: Dirk Nowitzki

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Old 07-15-2019, 11:25 AM   #18
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Yeah..this is why failing in Free Agency is such a big deal. You're going to be a middling team that probably isn't quite good enough for the playoffs...and probably not as attractive as you'd like to be in free agency.
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Old 07-15-2019, 12:40 PM   #19
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betonline.ag has our over/under in regular season wins at 41.5

Another prediction (and one with $ on the line) that has us around .500 (but probably also missing the playoffs)
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Old 07-15-2019, 04:57 PM   #20
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ESPN came up with some power rankings

They have us at 18th right after the Pelicans and before Orlando, which it's probably where I would place the Mavs as well.
I would have us at the same spot but drop the Pelicans 2 spots and lift the Magic 2 spots
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Old 07-15-2019, 05:39 PM   #21
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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...best-teams-now

Here's the article, divided by conference with playoff/lottery designations.

WEST
1) Nuggets
2) Clippers
3) Rockets
4) Lakers
5) Trailblazers
6) Jazz
7) Warriors
8) Spurs
---------------------
9) Pelicans
10) Mavs
11) Kings
12) Wolves
13) Thunder
14) Suns
15) Grizzlies


EAST
1) Bucks
2) 76ers
3) Celtics
4) Raptors
5) Nets
6) Heat
7) Pacers
8) Pistons
---------------------
9) Magic
10) Hawks
11) Bulls
12) Wizards
13) Knicks
14) Hornets
15) Cavs
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Old 07-16-2019, 12:29 AM   #22
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Vegas over is 41.5 wins
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Old 07-16-2019, 02:56 PM   #23
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538 has us at 44-38
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Old 07-16-2019, 03:02 PM   #24
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Too optimistic?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...20-nba-season/
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Old 07-16-2019, 03:36 PM   #25
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Last year they predicted 28-54 through October
November they changed it to 33-49

We ended up 33-49
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Old 07-16-2019, 03:46 PM   #26
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44-38 would be a massive success. I mean, it can be anywhere from 33-44 depending on injuries...esp KP.
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Old 07-16-2019, 04:40 PM   #27
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I was going to go the over 53 route, just to be that guy, but just couldn't. If we win 48, it was a GREAT year. Let them prove me wrong.
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Old 07-16-2019, 05:42 PM   #28
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Mavs were .275 after they were done trading (8-21) and that was without tanking

A jump to even close to .500 would be a huge leap forward, particularly with the west (who we play 2/3 of our games against) being so strong

Hoping for a playoff spot, but even 40 wins would tickle me. That would essentially be doubling out win-loss ratio in a single year
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Old 07-16-2019, 11:34 PM   #29
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I voted 42-47 wins.

I came out of free agency feeling pretty good about this team. But hey, I didn't want Kemba and I know a lot of people on here were hoping for him. I watched Delon Wright in Toronto, he's a really nice player. If he can develop that 3 point shot (+35% from outside) he may be the best contract in the league. They filled up with some shooters and bet on continuity.

Really hope KP can stay healthy this coming year. It's good to hear the front office is committed to load managing him.

Haven't been this hopeful about the team in a long time. I think they're going to surprise people, especially Mavs fans!
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Old 07-17-2019, 01:08 AM   #30
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I think it'll be around 41 wins, with more of them coming earlier in the season rather than later.
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Old 07-17-2019, 10:22 AM   #31
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Mavs were a great home team before the trade, and I expect that to be the same this season.
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Old 07-17-2019, 08:39 PM   #32
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Dirk had a 67-15 season. How many of those will Luka have? Keep in mind that was Dirk's 9th season as well. We will be fortunate if Luka stays around as long.
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Old 07-17-2019, 09:53 PM   #33
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Dirk had a 67-15 season. How many of those will Luka have? Keep in mind that was Dirk's 9th season as well. We will be fortunate if Luka stays around as long.
Luka might be a superstar for years to come with us, an all time great and we might not see a 67 win season anyway during his career. Winning 67+ games in the NBA is incredibly hard (Lebron has never had one, Spurs with Duncan only had one)

https://www.landofbasketball.com/sta...st_seasons.htm
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Old 07-19-2019, 01:31 AM   #34
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Luka might be a superstar for years to come with us, an all time great and we might not see a 67 win season anyway during his career. Winning 67+ games in the NBA is incredibly hard (Lebron has never had one, Spurs with Duncan only had one)

https://www.landofbasketball.com/sta...st_seasons.htm
Excellent point. LeBron still has a chance at getting one though.
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Old 07-19-2019, 10:15 AM   #35
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Excellent point. LeBron still has a chance at getting one though.
No, he doesn't. Unless you consider that he is still playing in the nba so technically he does. I don't see it happening with this lakers team.
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:46 PM   #36
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Caesars Sportsbook has the Mavs with 41 wins

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...son-win-totals
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:57 PM   #37
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Caesars Sportsbook has the Mavs with 41 wins

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...son-win-totals
I think Mavs go over 41. More like 44 or 45

Charlotte going lower than 24. More like 20 tops

OKC more than 28.

Sac more than 37. More like 40,41.
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:08 PM   #38
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I think Mavs go over 41. More like 44 or 45

Charlotte going lower than 24. More like 20 tops

OKC more than 28.

Sac more than 37. More like 40,41.
I agree except for the Mavs, I think we are a bit lower than 41.

Clippers one (55 1/2) it's a bit too high I think. Still have some questions on how PG13 and Kawhi can work together and the West is stacked this year.
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Old 07-26-2019, 05:16 PM   #39
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I agree except for the Mavs, I think we are a bit lower than 41.

Clippers one (55 1/2) it's a bit too high I think. Still have some questions on how PG13 and Kawhi can work together and the West is stacked this year.
The clips are going to be tough defensively.. real tough. And obvious those 2 are closers so it wont matter, they are contenders. "Load management" is the new thing and that will probably be the only reason they dont reach 55
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Old 07-27-2019, 01:21 PM   #40
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We're going to shock the NBA, and win 53. Luka+KP will be unstoppable, and Wright will be a MIP candidate, along with Powell, while Brunson proves everyone that he is starter material, leading the second unit on most nights.
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