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Old 08-07-2018, 11:35 AM   #1
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Default Predict Doncic's rookie stats (O/U)

Points: 12
Reb: 5
Ast: 5
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.0
TO: 2.5

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction
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Old 08-07-2018, 11:58 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Points: 12
Reb: 5
Ast: 5
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.0
TO: 2.5

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction
Points: over
Reb: under (DAJ will suck up most of them)
Ast: over
Blk: under
Stl: under
TO: over

FG% - .440
FT% - .800
3pt% - .333
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Old 08-07-2018, 12:06 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Points: 12
Reb: 5
Ast: 5
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.0
TO: 2.5

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction
Looks realistic-ish to me. Maybe slightly under on both assist and rebounds.
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Old 08-07-2018, 01:28 PM   #4
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I am going high on points but I don't see why he couldn't do that. I think he will play the passing lanes well and will be disruptive so I think higher on steals.

Points: 17
Reb: 4
Ast: 4
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.5
TO: 2.0
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Old 08-07-2018, 02:44 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by SMC0007 View Post
Depends on minutes, health. I am hoping for 15p, 5reb, 4ast,
It he plays enough to average 15 points, he will have at least 6 rebounds and 5 assists, but 7/7 wouldn't shock me either. He's going to be an elite rebounder and passer, those two skills that will surely translate.
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Old 08-07-2018, 04:03 PM   #6
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18 points
6 rebounds
8 assists

I think this is the first rookie that Carlisle turns totally loose
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Old 08-07-2018, 05:28 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by MFFL View Post
18 points
6 rebounds
8 assists

I think this is the first rookie that Carlisle turns totally loose
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Old 08-08-2018, 01:53 AM   #8
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Worst case scenario

13 PPG
5.5 RPG
5.0 APG

Most realistic scenario

15 PPG
6.5 RPG
6 APG

Best case scenario

18 PPG
7 RPG
7 APG
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Old 08-08-2018, 01:54 AM   #9
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I want to add though, there is NO WAY he averages less than 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Just won't happen, these are literally his two main strengths at this point.
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Old 08-08-2018, 07:28 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Scoobay View Post
Points: over
Reb: under (DAJ will suck up most of them)
Ast: over
Blk: under
Stl: under
TO: over

FG% - .440
FT% - .800
3pt% - .333
With the 3 pointer being a big part in today's NBA, long rebounds will probably keep his rebound numbers on the high side.
If he is generally a good rebounder that stat should be one of his best.

Wouldn't surprise me if this guy flirts with a few triple-doubles this season.
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Old 08-08-2018, 09:48 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by MFFL View Post
18 points
6 rebounds
8 assists

I think this is the first rookie that Carlisle turns totally loose
Keep in mind that those points would come off of someone else's stats, too. Who are you thinking that would be?


And I don't think he'll get turned totally loose. NBA is a different game, and Carlisle has a different system. Plus fairly new team, with 2 new starters. He'll ease everybody into it. Probably won't see the 'real' team until at least second half. Meaning Doncic would need to be getting around 24 ppg then to make up for first half.
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Old 08-08-2018, 02:19 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by BigDog63 View Post
Keep in mind that those points would come off of someone else's stats, too. Who are you thinking that would be?


And I don't think he'll get turned totally loose. NBA is a different game, and Carlisle has a different system. Plus fairly new team, with 2 new starters. He'll ease everybody into it. Probably won't see the 'real' team until at least second half. Meaning Doncic would need to be getting around 24 ppg then to make up for first half.
Either Wes or Dirk, Whichever one is coming off the bench. The other portion will come with the 2nd group. DAJ won't be much of a scorer, and I can easily see him dishing out some nice dimes to him.
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Old 08-08-2018, 03:03 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by BigDog63 View Post
Keep in mind that those points would come off of someone else's stats, too. Who are you thinking that would be?


And I don't think he'll get turned totally loose. NBA is a different game, and Carlisle has a different system. Plus fairly new team, with 2 new starters. He'll ease everybody into it. Probably won't see the 'real' team until at least second half. Meaning Doncic would need to be getting around 24 ppg then to make up for first half.

He's directly taking Yogi's minutes and he'll be a better scorer (27 min : 10 ppg). The rest of the minutes and points will come from less efficient scorers

It might be Jan or Feb before coach lets him totally loose. But it will happen. Carlisle loves ball movement and this kid a "joyful passer"
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Old 08-08-2018, 08:48 PM   #14
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Points: 12 -- OVER... If Wes could average 12.7 as our #3 scorer, then I see no reason why Doncic can't do the same. The kid averaged 14.5 last season. Not sure how efficient he'll be, but the volume should be there.

Reb: 5 -- OVER... Somebody has to grab boards, and Luka is quite adept at it. If Old Man Dirk can average over 5 per game, then so can the rook -- especially with his ability to track long rebounds (which should keep him out of DeAndre's space).

Ast: 5 -- OVER... DSJ averaged 5.2, and he doesn't have the court vision that Luka does. Plus, Doncic has Dennis and DeAndre to feed for high percentage buckets -- DSJ didn't have that luxury last season.

Blk: 0.5 -- OVER... Doncic is pushing 6'8" or so -- if Dirk "never known for defense" Nowitzki can get almost 0.6 BPG as an AARP member, then Luka should be able to as well.

Stl: 1.0 -- UNDER... The kid has long enough arms to disrupt passing lanes, but I think his lack of lateral quickness is going to see him fall short here. Would love to see him push that number, maybe somewhere around 0.8 per game.

TO: 2.5 -- UNDER... Luka has great court vision and is pretty careful with the ball... Hell, DSJ forced a lot of stuff out of necessity last season, and he only ended up with 2.8. I think Luka does even better, especially if DSJ is acting as the primary ball handler.
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Old 08-08-2018, 10:13 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Underdog View Post
Points: 12 -- OVER... If Wes could average 12.7 as our #3 scorer, then I see no reason why Doncic can't do the same. The kid averaged 14.5 last season. Not sure how efficient he'll be, but the volume should be there.

Reb: 5 -- OVER... Somebody has to grab boards, and Luka is quite adept at it. If Old Man Dirk can average over 5 per game, then so can the rook -- especially with his ability to track long rebounds (which should keep him out of DeAndre's space).

Ast: 5 -- OVER... DSJ averaged 5.2, and he doesn't have the court vision that Luka does. Plus, Doncic has Dennis and DeAndre to feed for high percentage buckets -- DSJ didn't have that luxury last season.

Blk: 0.5 -- OVER... Doncic is pushing 6'8" or so -- if Dirk "never known for defense" Nowitzki can get almost 0.6 BPG as an AARP member, then Luka should be able to as well.

Stl: 1.0 -- UNDER... The kid has long enough arms to disrupt passing lanes, but I think his lack of lateral quickness is going to see him fall short here. Would love to see him push that number, maybe somewhere around 0.8 per game.

TO: 2.5 -- UNDER... Luka has great court vision and is pretty careful with the ball... Hell, DSJ forced a lot of stuff out of necessity last season, and he only ended up with 2.8. I think Luka does even better, especially if DSJ is acting as the primary ball handler.

I really hope you're correct. This is basically best-case scenario.
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Old 08-08-2018, 10:44 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Points: 12
Reb: 5
Ast: 5
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.0
TO: 2.5

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction

Over
Over
Over
Under
Over
Over

I see something like 14/6.5/5.5 on about average efficiency for Doncic's first season. Wouldn't be surprised to see him end up doing something crazy like leading us in scoring either, but my guess is he'll end up 3rd behind Barnes and DSJ.
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Old 08-11-2018, 01:34 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Points: 12 Over
Reb: 5 Over
Ast: 5 Over
Blk: 0.5 Over
Stl: 1.0 Push
TO: 2.5 Under

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction
The only caution i have in terms of his numbers is his minutes. He got 25 a game in Europe and he's going to be expending more energy in the NBA. DSJ was around 35min a game in college(he did take it easy on defense though, which was well documented in his predraft stuff) and he was gassed early on playing 28-30 in the nba by his own words. If the mins are around DSJ's 29 a game he will average some hefty numbers imo. If he takes time to ramp up to 28-30+ he could be slightly under on some of these until he does get the mins up. I would be disappointed if he for some reason was under 10pts a game and under 4 in rebs and assists. But that's only because I think he's special. I wouldn't hit the panic button but I would be disappointed for sure. I fully expect him to be 14-15pts/6-7ast/5-6rebs though once his minutes are consistently in the 28+ area.
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Old 08-13-2018, 02:48 PM   #18
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I'm excited to see him play and am very optimistic about his production; HOWEVER, the single biggest factor is going to be his playing time imo, and call me a pessimist, but Carlisle's track record for playing young guys, much less rookies, is horrible. If there's a veteran on the roster, then Carlisle typically goes that route, especially going down the stretch to end game. Matthews anyone? :-( Ideally, I'd love for Carlisle to flip me the bird and load Doncic up on minutes. Unfortunately, I'm not going to believe it until I see it.
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Old 08-13-2018, 06:39 PM   #19
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I'm excited to see him play and am very optimistic about his production; HOWEVER, the single biggest factor is going to be his playing time imo, and call me a pessimist, but Carlisle's track record for playing young guys, much less rookies, is horrible. If there's a veteran on the roster, then Carlisle typically goes that route, especially going down the stretch to end game. Matthews anyone? :-( Ideally, I'd love for Carlisle to flip me the bird and load Doncic up on minutes. Unfortunately, I'm not going to believe it until I see it.
This is the dumbest Mavs narrative that keeps getting repeated since "Dirk is soft."

Rookie starts under Carlisle (which is an easier measure of RC's *trust* than minutes):

08-09: no rookies
09-10: Rodrigue Beaubois (16)
10-11: Dominque Jones (0)
11-12: no rookies
12-13: Jae Crowder (16), Bernard James (11), Jared Cunningham (0)
13-14: Shane Larkin (0), Ricky Ledo (0), Gal Makel (1)
14-15: no rookies
15-16: Justin Anderson (9), Salah Mejri (6)
16-17: Yogi Ferrell (29), Nicolas Brussino (2), Pierre Jackson (1), AJ Hammons (0), Jarred Uthoff (0), Jonathan Gibson (0)
17-18: Dennis Smith Jr (69), Maxi Kleiber (36), Johnathan Motley (4), Kyle Collinsworth (2), Gian Clavell (0), Antonius Cleveland (0)

Two observations:

1) Rick hasn't had many rookies to work with until recently, with 12/22 coming in the last two seasons... That's on Donnie, Cuban, and Dirk's grudge match with Father Time.

2) It's no surprise that the guys getting the most starts (and minutes) also happen to be the most talented... I mean, it's not like Rick let some gem slip through his fingers here -- most of these guys aren't even in the league now (seriously, this list is pathetic). If they were worth playing more, then why didn't any of the other 29 teams give them an opportunity?

So, apparently Rick hates young guys, yet he developed marginal players like JJ Barea, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jae Crowder, Ian Mahinmi, Brandon Wright, etc. to the point where they could have productive NBA careers... This myth that he hates youth needs to die, especially since it sprouted from Rick's reluctance to give Roddy B more minutes -- which, you know, only led to an NBA championship.

As for Luka? We moved up to get him because that's the guy Rick wanted the most. "Rick Carlisle Guys" don't ride the pine... Even DSJ pushed 30 MPG playing through injuries (7th-most among rookies last year), so there's no reason to think Doncic won't get as much burn as he can handle.
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Old 08-14-2018, 09:25 AM   #20
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Thank you for that analysis. I've always doubted that "Rick hates young guys' credo as well. Outside of last year, the only player on that list that is really worth consistent game time is Jae Crowder who we thought we traded for a "key piece".
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Old 08-14-2018, 10:32 AM   #21
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I agree with MavzMan - great analysis UD. These are the kind of points that are totally lacking from the more main stream Eddie Sefko types reporters. I'm really liking Bobby Karalla and a few others for their Mavs reporting.
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Old 08-14-2018, 10:37 AM   #22
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As for Luka? We moved up to get him because that's the guy Rick wanted the most. "Rick Carlisle Guys" don't ride the pine... Even DSJ pushed 30 MPG playing through injuries (7th-most among rookies last year), so there's no reason to think Doncic won't get as much burn as he can handle.
To add to that, we traded potentially a 5th this year and a 10-15 next year for Doncic. That's how much we loved him and unlike in prior years, Rick was in on the decision. He's a guy Rick likes a lot-- both for his skills and because Rick doesn't tolerate stupidity and Doncic is pretty accomplished with his BBIQ for 19.
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Old 08-14-2018, 03:01 PM   #23
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You can see the numbers skewing upwards recently. Before then, the Mavs 'brain trust' often wasn't even trying to select rookies that could play. Cuban never understood the value of rookies...probably his biggest failure. Look at what Houston did with all of their draft picks...very few of which are still on their team. Cuban never understood their value...hence Carlisle seldom had good rookies to work with. Last year, that mentality in the FO changed, and Mavs started drafting much better. Previously, one could make a case for them being the most inept drafter in sports...except the Cowboys were actually a lot worse, even though they were actually trying to draft well.
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Old 08-14-2018, 04:43 PM   #24
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Personally think it was a mixture of two things

1) We never had good picks because we were winning so it was hard to get good players

2) Cuban was obsessed with giving Dirk a good team and viewed our low draft picks as a cheap way to get veteran assets to surround Dirk with.

When we've had good picks, we've used them well (Harris, Smith). We've even found some diamonds in the rough (Daniels, Howard, etc.) We've just frittered away some lower picks that we probably should have swung for the fences on and trading away picks for Antawn, Antoine, Rondo, etc. were all bad decisions done for the right reasons

Now that Dirk is retiring, we're both getting some better draft picks (Smith and then Doncic) and hopefully Cuban has gotten over the habit of selling all his draft assets for win-now veterans
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:10 PM   #25
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I do think players can look confused and stagnant in Rick's offense at times, but I don't think it directly relates to the development of young players.

Even with late picks, the Mavs haven't been very good at the draft which was the central problem. Shan Larkin, Dominique Jones, and Jared Cunningham are all inexcusably bad picks.

All of that has changed with DSJ and Luka. Those are safe, high picks that will hopefully change our losing ways this season.
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Old 08-16-2018, 08:03 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Points: 12
Reb: 5
Ast: 5
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.0
TO: 2.5

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction
Reb: under
Ast: under
Blk: under
Stl: under
TO: over
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Old 08-16-2018, 08:45 PM   #27
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Reb: under
Ast: under
Blk: under
Stl: under
TO: over
Bold
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Old 08-17-2018, 02:34 AM   #28
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Rick doesn't like rookies who cannot understand the game through schemes. I feel that in prior years, he actually wouldn't have liked DSJ, and maybe he didn't like him that much, despite him playing the kid near 30 minutes per night. I tell you one thing though, he will LOVE Luka. Doncic will quite possibly be the player with the highest b-ball IQ on our roster this season.
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Old 08-17-2018, 08:33 AM   #29
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this.

Rick doesnt hate rookies, he hates players who doesnt know how to play the game. If a rookie understands the game, he plays them (Yogi etc)
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:28 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Underdog View Post
This is the dumbest Mavs narrative that keeps getting repeated since "Dirk is soft."

Rookie starts under Carlisle (which is an easier measure of RC's *trust* than minutes):

08-09: no rookies
09-10: Rodrigue Beaubois (16)
10-11: Dominque Jones (0)
11-12: no rookies
12-13: Jae Crowder (16), Bernard James (11), Jared Cunningham (0)
13-14: Shane Larkin (0), Ricky Ledo (0), Gal Makel (1)
14-15: no rookies
15-16: Justin Anderson (9), Salah Mejri (6)
16-17: Yogi Ferrell (29), Nicolas Brussino (2), Pierre Jackson (1), AJ Hammons (0), Jarred Uthoff (0), Jonathan Gibson (0)
17-18: Dennis Smith Jr (69), Maxi Kleiber (36), Johnathan Motley (4), Kyle Collinsworth (2), Gian Clavell (0), Antonius Cleveland (0)

Two observations:

1) Rick hasn't had many rookies to work with until recently, with 12/22 coming in the last two seasons... That's on Donnie, Cuban, and Dirk's grudge match with Father Time.

2) It's no surprise that the guys getting the most starts (and minutes) also happen to be the most talented... I mean, it's not like Rick let some gem slip through his fingers here -- most of these guys aren't even in the league now (seriously, this list is pathetic). If they were worth playing more, then why didn't any of the other 29 teams give them an opportunity?

So, apparently Rick hates young guys, yet he developed marginal players like JJ Barea, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jae Crowder, Ian Mahinmi, Brandon Wright, etc. to the point where they could have productive NBA careers... This myth that he hates youth needs to die, especially since it sprouted from Rick's reluctance to give Roddy B more minutes -- which, you know, only led to an NBA championship.

As for Luka? We moved up to get him because that's the guy Rick wanted the most. "Rick Carlisle Guys" don't ride the pine... Even DSJ pushed 30 MPG playing through injuries (7th-most among rookies last year), so there's no reason to think Doncic won't get as much burn as he can handle.

Thanks for the analysis and perspective UD. I will be so happy to be wrong about my previous take on this. The more the younger guys play this year, the more fun it will be for us fans imo, regardless of record.
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Old 08-17-2018, 04:15 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by NeedlesKane View Post
Reb: under
Ast: under
Blk: under
Stl: under
TO: over
I'm very interested to know why you think he will play this way. Unless you think Carlisle won't play him much
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Old 08-17-2018, 07:58 PM   #32
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I'm very interested to know why you think he will play this way. Unless you think Carlisle won't play him much
He's a rookie, and a 25 year old Ginobli who put up better International numbers than him didn't put up numbers as good as those in his rookie NBA season.
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Old 08-17-2018, 08:01 PM   #33
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Bold
Trust me. I want to be very wrong here. But that's my honest opinion. As a Mavericks fan I'd love for him to put up numbers like Oscar Robertson did in his rookie season. For those here who don't know, he put up 30.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game. Of course he hasn't done anything to suggest he can put up those kind of numbers.
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Old 08-17-2018, 10:08 PM   #34
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He's a rookie, and a 25 year old Ginobli who put up better International numbers than him didn't put up numbers as good as those in his rookie NBA season.
Ginobli only played 20 minutes a game back then and international ball has improved by light years in the last 15 years
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Old 08-18-2018, 02:01 PM   #35
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Ginobli only played 20 minutes a game back then and international ball has improved by light years in the last 15 years
So has the Nba though
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Old 08-18-2018, 11:23 PM   #36
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So has the Nba though
The NBA has improved but the gap has closed significantly.

Porzingis came into the NBA and averaged 14.3 points and 7.3 rebounds. The year before on his EuroCup, Liga ACB team he only averaged 11.0 points and 4.6 rebounds

If the talent level wasn't closer then this couldn't have happened
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Old 08-19-2018, 08:15 AM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Points: 12
Reb: 5
Ast: 5
Blk: 0.5
Stl: 1.0
TO: 2.5

Play the OVER/UNDER or post your own prediction
over
under
over
under
over
over
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Old 08-21-2018, 02:26 AM   #38
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How did I skip points? I'm embarassed by that. I was going with Under on points.
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Old 08-21-2018, 02:59 PM   #39
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Right now, other rookies kind of dogged him. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/m/4bb98...o’d.html
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Old 08-21-2018, 08:08 PM   #40
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Right now, other rookies kind of dogged him. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/m/4bb98...-on-who’d.html
I don't know if he's the best from the class, but I feel like he's definitely among the very top. He was definitely dogged.
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