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Old 02-03-2019, 03:30 PM   #1
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Default Tankathon watch 2019 - Lets keep our pick

So how about a nice cozy tank thread discussing the tank, odds to keep the pick and playing with the simulator

http://www.tankathon.com/

Keeping our pick would be incredible important. Either another rebuild piece or an asset to combine with expiring contracts to get another good player (since we are pretty much out of assets after the Zinger trade). It would be really really huge to keep it.

It would be also incredible to see two fanbases losing their shit because their Mavs picks will be delayed and worse

I would love to sneak for the lottery odds in the #7 or #8 spot. 26 or 32% chance to keep the pick is kind of solid. We wont outtank the first five teams and it will be pretty hard to outtank the Pelicans and Grizzlies (if they blow it up). But its good that the Magic/Pistons/Wizards are gunning for the playoffs, probably until the very end.

Zion is of course the absolute pipedream. Its not just the crazy talent but also the amazing fit with Porzingis.

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Old 02-03-2019, 03:32 PM   #2
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If we're gonna get lucky, we're gonna get lucky, but no way we are going to tank. It ain't happening, unless you sit out Luka for the rest of the year.
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Old 02-03-2019, 03:34 PM   #3
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If we're gonna get lucky, we're gonna get lucky, but no way we are going to tank. It ain't happening, unless you sit out Luka for the rest of the year.
We are going to tank, but not so obvious like other teams in the past...like we did last year. It started with letting Porzingis sit out and im pretty sure we are going to see some Luka DNP in B2Bs etc. Wouldnt be surprised if they shut him down with some bullshit for the last four games (Grizz, Grizz, Suns, Spurs) to go at least 1-3 in these games.

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Old 02-03-2019, 03:41 PM   #4
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We're seven games away from the #5 pick and six games away from #8 seed, which makes us more likely to get swept by GSW in the playoffs than retaining our pick... Seems like the only way it's gonna happen is if the lottery balls fall in our favor (which would be a first for us).
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Old 02-03-2019, 04:23 PM   #5
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Honestly don't think we tank. Just because in the past they keep singing the winning culture motto. With the exception of last year they don't pack it in until they are mathematically, or nearly, eliminated. I still think we end up with the 8-11 pick and unless we have serious luck then it's getting conveyed.
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Old 02-03-2019, 04:51 PM   #6
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I don't think we tank either. I thought low-40 wins in the beginning and I'm sticking there. Luka is too good for us to basically lose out
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Old 02-03-2019, 05:48 PM   #7
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Yeah I mean if this thread wants to age well, you better hope that Doncic goes down with a minor injury and the Mavs decide to play it safe.
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:20 PM   #8
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I don't think we tank either. I thought low-40 wins in the beginning and I'm sticking there. Luka is too good for us to basically lose out
For 41-41 we have to finish 17-13...

30 games left, i count just nine games against bad or semi-bad (Magic, Wiz and worse) and at least 15 games against good teams. Sure, Spurs in the last game could play everyone to secure the playoffs or rest everyone.

But right now i see us closer to 10-20 than 15-15. Lebron is back with the Lakers, maybe soon Davis plays in LA....Jazz and Rockets are rock solid since weeks. Wouldnt be surprised if we are almost 10 games behind with 20 games left...and yeah, then its clear they wont make the playoffs.

I think we end up with around 33 wins, maybe lower if we try hard and Luks is on board with some "resting"

53 Wed, Feb 6, 2019 8:30p Charlotte Hornets
54 Fri, Feb 8, 2019 8:30p Milwaukee Bucks
55 Sun, Feb 10, 2019 3:00p Portland Trail Blazers
56 Mon, Feb 11, 2019 8:00p @ Houston Rockets
57 Wed, Feb 13, 2019 8:30p Miami Heat
58 Fri, Feb 22, 2019 8:30p Denver Nuggets
59 Sat, Feb 23, 2019 10:00p @ Utah Jazz
60 Mon, Feb 25, 2019 10:30p @ Los Angeles Clippers
61 Wed, Feb 27, 2019 8:30p Indiana Pacers
62 Sat, Mar 2, 2019 8:30p Memphis Grizzlies
63 Mon, Mar 4, 2019 7:30p @ Brooklyn Nets
64 Wed, Mar 6, 2019 7:00p @ Washington Wizards
65 Fri, Mar 8, 2019 7:00p @ Orlando Magic
66 Sun, Mar 10, 2019 7:00p Houston Rockets
67 Tue, Mar 12, 2019 8:30p San Antonio Spurs
68 Thu, Mar 14, 2019 10:30p @ Denver Nuggets
69 Sat, Mar 16, 2019 8:30p Cleveland Cavaliers
70 Mon, Mar 18, 2019 8:30p New Orleans Pelicans
71 Wed, Mar 20, 2019 10:00p @ Portland Trail Blazers
72 Thu, Mar 21, 2019 10:00p @ Sacramento Kings
73 Sat, Mar 23, 2019 8:30p @ Golden State Warriors
74 Tue, Mar 26, 2019 8:30p Sacramento Kings
75 Thu, Mar 28, 2019 7:30p @ Miami Heat
76 Sun, Mar 31, 2019 3:30p @ Oklahoma City Thunder
77 Mon, Apr 1, 2019 8:30p Philadelphia 76ers
78 Wed, Apr 3, 2019 8:30p Minnesota Timberwolves
79 Fri, Apr 5, 2019 8:30p Memphis Grizzlies
80 Sun, Apr 7, 2019 6:00p @ Memphis Grizzlies
81 Tue, Apr 9, 2019 8:30p Phoenix Suns
82 Wed, Apr 10, 2019 8:00p @ San Antonio Spurs

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Old 02-03-2019, 06:34 PM   #9
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Mavs compete above their talent level at home though this season. So having 16 home games helps them. I don't think they get to 41 but I think they can and will get 35-38 wins. If they get 10 wins from home games, which looks very doable and then get just 4 of 14 wins on the road that would put them at 38 wins.
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:53 PM   #10
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At this point I bet we're playing to make Atlanta's pick worse, but not much else.
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:56 PM   #11
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I'm all for pushing for a playoff spot. I don't imagine Luka would be too thrilled with playing less and tanking. Yeah, we'd probably get swept if we somehow climbed into the 8th spot, but I still think it would be a fun experience for Luka and the younger guys as well as show KP what we do have without him yet playing. I think a loss to GS in the PO's would be a nice measuring stick for the young guys as well as encouragement to improve during the offseason. Having said that, I don't think we're going to make it. I think we'll miss by 2 or 3 games... basically by a couple of the games we gave away, and that's going to suck if we are that close imo. Just my .02.

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Old 02-03-2019, 07:21 PM   #12
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It's much more fun trying to win as an underdog. I'd rather convey the pick and see what happens with the next draft. I mean, if we go on a big losing streak, fine, but it's really unbearable to watch a team tank.
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Old 02-03-2019, 07:34 PM   #13
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It's much more fun trying to win as an underdog.
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Old 02-03-2019, 07:35 PM   #14
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DHWS - I am in total agreement with you. No tank.
Think how refreshed the our newly acquired Knicks guys are going to be - actually playing to win and not tank. I also think it is psychologically against how athletes are trained to think.
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Old 02-03-2019, 07:51 PM   #15
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It's much more fun trying to win as an underdog. I'd rather convey the pick and see what happens with the next draft. I mean, if we go on a big losing streak, fine, but it's really unbearable to watch a team tank.
Yep.
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Old 02-03-2019, 08:13 PM   #16
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DHWS - I am in total agreement with you. No tank.
Think how refreshed the our newly acquired Knicks guys are going to be - actually playing to win and not tank. I also think it is psychologically against how athletes are trained to think.
And teaching DFS and Kleber how to win as well.
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Old 02-03-2019, 08:56 PM   #17
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It's much more fun trying to win as an underdog. I'd rather convey the pick and see what happens with the next draft. I mean, if we go on a big losing streak, fine, but it's really unbearable to watch a team tank.
Well, fuck the #8 spot because i have zero interest in getting trashed by the super annoying Warriors.

I also think we wont start to tank straight on purpose but trading for KP and shutting him down (there are reports he is pretty much cleared) is a tank move.

We are also going to get destroyed at the boards now with Kleber/Pomeranian/Dirk.

Just look at the next 11 games, we could go easily 2-9 even without tanking, pushing us to 26-37 and then bye bye playoff race.
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Old 02-03-2019, 09:22 PM   #18
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Well, fuck the #8 spot because i have zero interest in getting trashed by the super annoying Warriors.

I also think we wont start to tank straight on purpose but trading for KP and shutting him down (there are reports he is pretty much cleared) is a tank move.

We are also going to get destroyed at the boards now with Kleber/Pomeranian/Dirk.

Just look at the next 11 games, we could go easily 2-9 even without tanking, pushing us to 26-37 and then bye bye playoff race.
That's fine, but there are too many tankers right now. Sure, we could slip into 5, but it's gonna really hurt if we have like the 7th pick going to Atlanta.
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Old 02-03-2019, 09:43 PM   #19
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For me it doesnt matter if the Picks goes at #6 or at #12 to the Hawks. Sure their annoying fanbase would still pretend they are the winner of the trade but it was a nobrainer to give up the pick.

But it would be so much better to get a Top-5 this year. Either its a rebuilding piece or a great piece to add to the expiring contracts. And i think next year we would probably pick around #14, so thats a huge difference too.

So i personally take 20-30% chances to have the pick over a trashing against the Warriors.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:02 PM   #20
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I’m all for an organic, soft tank. Best we can hope for is 7 or 8 with a 25-30% chance at top 5 as Sefant pointed out. It will become clear soon enough that the playoffs are not happening.

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Old 02-03-2019, 10:02 PM   #21
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Draft sucks outside the top 4 anyway. So that part I don't care about. If Luka is healthy though you play him. You can sit him on a b2b or at the end of the year for the last 2-3 but I don't see some super hard schedule honestly. Over the next 11 the only high percentage losses I see are Bucks, Rockettes, and Nuggets. None of those others look much worse than a coin flip. If they go 2-9 I think you can make a shift. If they go 6-5 that's the end of the tank idea. Even if they did go 2-9 I don't see any way they get higher than the 7th spot at best with all the teams that are alrdy tanking or very soon to be tanking.

Edit- I'll add that I see zero chance of making the playoffs as well.

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Old 02-03-2019, 10:29 PM   #22
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We won't make the playoffs, but we won't get a draft pick either... I'm just going to enjoy watching our guys for the rest of the season.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:30 PM   #23
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Draft sucks outside the top 4 anyway. So that part I don't care about.
If you dont like anyting outside of the Dukes and Morant, then you shop the pick in combination with Lee or even THJ. I wouldnt be surprised if a team blowing it up during the offseason even eats the THJ contract (salary floor etc) in such a trade.

So...just really good stuff can happen with keeping our pick. Much better stuff than a worse pick in 2020....

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Old 02-03-2019, 10:34 PM   #24
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OK so obviously Zion would be #1 but pretending we get the #2 pick, who would it be?

RJ Barrett seems like the logical choice
don't know much about the rest of them
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:42 PM   #25
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OK so obviously Zion would be #1 but pretending we get the #2 pick, who would it be?

RJ Barrett seems like the logical choice
don't know much about the rest of them
Zion
Barrett
Reddish
Culver

That's about it... None of other high picks make sense with Luka and KP on the roster.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:48 PM   #26
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If they have Morant as BPA after Zion, who knows....multiple ballhandler etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLd00X79ygY

Drafting Barrett would probably push Barnes out of the door not picking up his option, giving us cap space.

But i also wouldnt be surprised if we shop the pick (outside Zion) for a proven player.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:00 PM   #27
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I don't think playoffs are that realistic but I don't think we should tank either, even if it's subtly.
We've given away 3 of the next 5 draft picks. If we don't give away the first one soon, the number of years we owe a draft pick keeps increasing and there's no way in knowing what happens more than 5 years down the road.

The Nets thought they were going to be good for a while so they traded away picks after picks and look at where they were (before they turned around this season).

I'm pretty sure the reason Dirk did not want last season to be his final one was that he didn't want to retire in a tanking season.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:10 PM   #28
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I'm pretty sure the reason Dirk did not want last season to be his final one was that he didn't want to retire in a tanking season.
I'd be shocked if they tanked, even subtly. The only thing I see is maybe if we are mathematically eliminated we alter rotations to give some guys more burn than normal. But the Mavs said last year was a "one time thing". They knew early on that they were awful. They started 2-14. The year before they didn't tank until they were mathematically eliminated and they ended with the 9th pick. I don't see them doing it any differently.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:27 PM   #29
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We've given away 3 of the next 5 draft picks. If we don't give away the first one soon, the number of years we owe a draft pick keeps increasing and there's no way in knowing what happens more than 5 years down the road.

The Nets thought they were going to be good for a while so they traded away picks after picks and look at where they were (before they turned around this season).
Nah, thats a bad example. When the Nets did the trade KG was 37, Pierce and Terry 36. The picks had no protection and KG/PP fell (of course) soon off a cliff.

Im pretty sure that we are locking KP up in the summer for at least four years, he is not taking the QO. That means we have Luka and KP locked up until 2023. We are clearing 50m in salary until 2020. Another 20m in 2021. Even if we keep our pick this year, that covers the Hawks pick and the unprotected first Knicks pick converting with Luka and KP on the team. The 2nd Knicks pick is even Top-10 protected and changes into a 2nd rounder if not converted by 2025.

So totally different situation.

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But the Mavs said last year was a "one time thing". They knew early on that they were awful. They started 2-14. The year before they didn't tank until they were mathematically eliminated and they ended with the 9th pick. I don't see them doing it any differently.
And after the Zinger trade they said that we trade wasnt for this year, it was for the next years....so that implies that they dont mind falling out of the playoff race. We pretty much gutted our rebounding...i think after the trade they are at the same point...being okay with tanking. I think they know even with pushing hard they will be out of the race by the end of february....

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Old 02-03-2019, 11:45 PM   #30
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And after the Zinger trade they said that we trade wasnt for this year, it was for the next years....so that implies that they dont mind falling out of the playoff race. We pretty much gutted our rebounding...i think after the trade they are at the same point...being okay with tanking. I think they know even with pushing hard they will be out of the race by the end of february....
Well I think we will have a better idea in 10 days after these next 5 games. I agree rebounding could be their downfall now. Along with it takes time to incorporate new pieces.

We might also know by Thursday if they trade Barnes. If Barnes is traded I'll concede 100% that they might be tanking to at least get a chance in the 7-8th spot on the sly.
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Old 02-03-2019, 11:51 PM   #31
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Yeah....i wouldnt be shocked to see Barnes in a salary dump with the Kings. Just to be extra sure that his 25m are off the books. Because thats pretty much the difference between zero cap in the summer or 25m and going after guys like Vuce etc
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Old 02-04-2019, 12:20 AM   #32
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I would say "tanking" would be a byproduct, rather than the goal. We can try to win all we want, but with that much turnover we're likely to lose anyway... But that doesn't mean we're TRYING to lose -- we just make moves to improve this team going forward and let the chips fall where they may this season.
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Old 02-04-2019, 12:43 AM   #33
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Nah, thats a bad example. When the Nets did the trade KG was 37, Pierce and Terry 36. The picks had no protection and KG/PP fell (of course) soon off a cliff.

Im pretty sure that we are locking KP in the summer for at least four years, he is not taking the QO. That means we have Luka and KP locked up until 2023. We are clearing 50m in salary until 2020. Another 20m in 2021. Even if we keep our pick this year, that covers the Hawks pick and the unprotected first Knicks pick converting with Luka and KP on the team. The 2nd Knicks pick is even Top-10 protected and changes into a 2nd rounder if not converted by 2025.

So totally different situation.
I'm not saying it's the same situation as the Nets given the age of the players. I'm referring to the fact that 5 years is a lot of years down the road. Call me pessimistic but 1) KP has not signed a long term deal and 2) KP has not returned to court from his injury so we don't know what he'll look like or if he'll become injury prone (finger crossed he does not).

I may have read somewhere that management considered the fact that this was not going to be a good draft in deciding to trade away this pick, so why not keep it that way. My hope is that even if we don't get into the playoffs we play hard and fall just short and get a 12th pick and send it over to Atlanta.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:28 AM   #34
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That's fine, but there are too many tankers right now. Sure, we could slip into 5, but it's gonna really hurt if we have like the 7th pick going to Atlanta.
Too many tankers? But I thought the change in draft percentages was supposed to fix that. There shouldn't be any teams actively tanking.

As for losing the #7 pick, knowing that Luka is on the team takes a lot of the sting out of luck of the draw pick. I'm perfectly happy conveying whatever pick we get over to Atlanta outside of top 5 just to be done with the trade.
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Old 02-04-2019, 11:03 AM   #35
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Too many tankers? But I thought the change in draft percentages was supposed to fix that. There shouldn't be any teams actively tanking.

As for losing the #7 pick, knowing that Luka is on the team takes a lot of the sting out of luck of the draw pick. I'm perfectly happy conveying whatever pick we get over to Atlanta outside of top 5 just to be done with the trade.
Under rated line of thinking lately. We made the deal so now lets play on and live with it. Nothing Atlanta gets from the pick in addition to Young will be what Luka has been and will be.
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Old 02-07-2019, 08:29 PM   #36
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Davis is going to play out the rest of the season. Good for our tank, we may catch them. Grizzlies kept everyone except Gasol, so there is a slight chance we catch them too.

Wizards blowing it up are bad news.
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Old 02-07-2019, 09:05 PM   #37
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If Dirk starts for the rest of the season, then it's clear that we're tanking.
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Old 02-07-2019, 09:49 PM   #38
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Ah and another point why it would be really huge to keep the pick: If we pick this year, the Hawks pick moves to 2020 and the first unprotected Knicks pick moves to 2022. We would keep the 2021 pick and that looks like the year the NBA is going to kill the one-and-done, allowing the HS kids to enter the draft. So 2021 as the first year of this is going to have a deeper playerpool than usual.

if we lose our pick this year, we pick in 2020 and the Knicks have our 2021 unprotected
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Old 02-07-2019, 10:41 PM   #39
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The team last night played like it was tanking....the bad part is....there's about 10 other teams tanking........
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Old 02-10-2019, 05:47 PM   #40
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