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View Poll Results: Which guard will have the highest PER in 2019-2020?
Markelle Fultz 12 57.14%
Lonzo Ball 0 0%
DeAaron Fox 1 4.76%
Malik Monk 1 4.76%
Dennis Smith Jr. 6 28.57%
Frank Ntilinka 1 4.76%
Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-25-2017, 10:09 AM   #1
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Default Predict the best guards in the draft

Who will average the highest PER/EWA in 2019-2020?
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Old 04-25-2017, 03:05 PM   #2
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Seems a bit premature to make that prediction before knowing what team these guys end up on... Like, I could see Ball's production taking a hit if he lands in the circus of LA.
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Old 04-25-2017, 06:03 PM   #3
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It's premature, but entertaining. I think hands down Fultz. I think Ball on the right team is the first to win a championship.

Edit: Just remembered the Celtics. If they get Jackson I see them as the #1 season and East Coast favorites moving forward. They could potentially net a championship as he develops in 2-3 years.

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Old 04-25-2017, 07:02 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Underdog View Post
Seems a bit premature to make that prediction before knowing what team these guys end up on... Like, I could see Ball's production taking a hit if he lands in the circus of LA.
It's premature to predict a player's performance three years out...because we don't know their team?
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Old 04-25-2017, 07:29 PM   #5
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It's premature to predict a player's performance three years out...because we don't know their team?
Yep... How many excellent college players have turned into garbage by getting drafted by the Sixers? Some franchises bring out the best in players, some don't. It's absolutely relevant.
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Old 04-25-2017, 09:13 PM   #6
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Yep... How many excellent college players have turned into garbage by getting drafted by the Sixers? Some franchises bring out the best in players, some don't. It's absolutely relevant.
I'm not saying it's not, but it's a bit silly to critique the question for that.

It's like saying who would make the best president in 2024, but saying it's hard to say because you'd like to see the stock market in 2020
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Old 04-26-2017, 08:08 AM   #7
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The easy answer is Fultz. But I went went DS Jr because he's gonna fall the Mavs, then him and HB will lead us into The Next Generation!
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Old 04-26-2017, 09:05 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
I'm not saying it's not, but it's a bit silly to critique the question for that.

It's like saying who would make the best president in 2024, but saying it's hard to say because you'd like to see the stock market in 2020
I, too, would like to see the stock market in 2020.
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Old 04-26-2017, 11:26 AM   #9
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I, too, would like to see the stock market in 2020.
Halliburton +1,200
Raytheon +950
Samsung +150

Everything else down bigly
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Old 07-02-2017, 01:45 PM   #10
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Bump
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Old 07-07-2017, 11:43 PM   #11
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Lonzo Ball off to a great start... https://screengrabber.deadspin.com/l...ter-1796735360
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Old 07-08-2017, 09:04 AM   #12
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I watched part of the Lakers game. Ball looked like shit lol. Daddy was still hyping him up as ROY and leading them to the playoffs though.
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Old 07-08-2017, 11:13 AM   #13
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I watched part of the Lakers game. Ball looked like shit lol. Daddy was still hyping him up as ROY and leading them to the playoffs though.

Yeah, who knew a frickin' slingshot jumper wouldn't translate well to the NBA line..?

....oh yeah, most of us

He obviously has a high bball IQ, but he will need to work his ass off to get up NBA athlete standards and fix that jumper. His dad is not doing him any favors by putting a target on his back. NBA players are going to want to destroy the kid.
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Old 07-08-2017, 11:25 AM   #14
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Yeah, who knew a frickin' slingshot jumper wouldn't translate well to the NBA line..?

....oh yeah, most of us

He obviously has a high bball IQ, but he will need to work his ass off to get up NBA athlete standards and fix that jumper. His dad is not doing him any favors by putting a target on his back. NBA players are going to want to destroy the kid.
Honestly this is the main reason I'll tune into any Lakers games this year. Brice Johnson put a nice move on him last night and had a big finish.
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Old 11-15-2017, 11:46 AM   #15
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How to Identify an NBA Draft Bust in Just 10 Games
Philly’s Markelle Fultz hasn’t earned the label yet, but analyzing the surprising lessons from two key metrics in the lottery era shows that he’s not far away

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/1...markelle-fultz

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First, this analysis examines top-10 picks based on the thought that anyone picked outside the top 10 doesn’t generate the same “bust” smears. Second, it generally examines their play during their first four seasons in the NBA (the standard length of a first-rounder’s contract) because a failed prospect who bounces back as a veteran still engenders the “bust” label. And third, it uses two advanced statistics designed to encompass a player’s overall performance. Basketball doesn’t break down so neatly into single numbers as, say, baseball does with WAR, but these metrics work on a macro level. To encapsulate career value, the analysis will rely on win shares, which estimate how many wins a player added or subtracted to his team’s total. Win shares cohere with the eye test, too: By this metric, the half-dozen best top-10 picks in the lottery era (from 1985’s draft onward) are LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O’Neal, and David Robinson; the half-dozen worst (not counting players still on their rookie contracts) are Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Adam Morrison, Bobby Hurley, Jonny Flynn, Chris Washburn, and Rafael Araujo. That’ll do.

But win shares don’t vary much on a game-to-game basis, so game score will fit for shorter spans of games. This metric, which was created by John Hollinger, condenses a box score line into one number and, according to Basketball-Reference’s glossary, is supposed to “give a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game.” An obvious caveat is that because game score considers only numbers that appear in a box score, it doesn’t account for a player’s entire impact on the court, but it works as the best proxy for short-term player value.
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