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Old 03-06-2019, 01:38 PM   #81
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I really like the new odds, hardcore tanking for the worst record isnt worthy anymore. So many times the Knicks fell from #1 down to #4 or even #5.

Had a few times that four teams jumped up...
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:02 AM   #82
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We dont play to lose. We just suck after the trades because we lost five guys and pretty much just got one back for now (THJ).

So its about losing and not getting pissed about it.
Ok. Let me rephrase. It is not 'playing to lose' but 'playing like losing is ok'.

With this mindset, the hungrier team will always win. You can already see that Luka doesn't like losing and he can't do anything about it.
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:47 AM   #83
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Ok. Let me rephrase. It is not 'playing to lose' but 'playing like losing is ok'.

With this mindset, the hungrier team will always win. You can already see that Luka doesn't like losing and he can't do anything about it.

1. Make his Free throws.

2. I think Luka is smart enough to see the big picture. Sure losing is frustrating but no KP, Barnes etc... he knows next year is when it starts to count.
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Old 03-08-2019, 10:33 AM   #84
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12 tries
7 top 4
2 Zion, 3 Barrett (2nd pick), 2 Reddish (4th pick)
not bad
may the odds be in our favor
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Old 03-08-2019, 10:38 AM   #85
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I initially thought the tanking idea wouldn't hold any water...too many teams to pass up, and 4 of the 5 bottom positions were pretty locked up, and teams that were a lot worse than the Mavs to start with, BUT..

We just lost to 3 of those teams, 2 in total blowouts.

So now I'm not sure...

are the Mavs really that bad now?
even if they are, can they really drop down into that 5th position...with other teams also tanking hard to get there as well?

Official tankathon tracker

Mavs are currently in 7th position, needing to pass up Memphis and ATL. They are SIX games ahead of ATL. That's going to be hard to do, especially since ATL has zero interest in trying to win themselves. They also need to pass Memphis, and Memphis is a mess (but did just drub the Mavs).

The problem with tanking these days is everybody is doing it.

Did y'all ever play Spades? If so, ever play a game where EVERYONE bids 'null'? It's crazy...and that's what tanking is like these days. You win games you were sure you were going to lose, simply because the other side wanted to lose more than you did. The Mavs really aren't equipped with that mindset.
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Old 03-08-2019, 10:59 AM   #86
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I initially thought the tanking idea wouldn't hold any water...too many teams to pass up, and 4 of the 5 bottom positions were pretty locked up, and teams that were a lot worse than the Mavs to start with, BUT..

We just lost to 3 of those teams, 2 in total blowouts.

So now I'm not sure...

are the Mavs really that bad now?
even if they are, can they really drop down into that 5th position...with other teams also tanking hard to get there as well?

Official tankathon tracker

Mavs are currently in 7th position, needing to pass up Memphis and ATL. They are SIX games ahead of ATL. That's going to be hard to do, especially since ATL has zero interest in trying to win themselves. They also need to pass Memphis, and Memphis is a mess (but did just drub the Mavs).

The problem with tanking these days is everybody is doing it.

Did y'all ever play Spades? If so, ever play a game where EVERYONE bids 'null'? It's crazy...and that's what tanking is like these days. You win games you were sure you were going to lose, simply because the other side wanted to lose more than you did. The Mavs really aren't equipped with that mindset.
i'm not too worried about them getting into the bottom 5
over the past couple weeks we've dropped about 3 spots which has doubled our odds of the top 4 and the #1 pick. i'd be happy if memphis overtakes us and we get to #6
that'd bring our top 4 odds up to 37% and Zion odds to 9% which isn't that far off the 14% odds you'd get for being the worst team.

i figure we're good either way - play the young guys - don't wear out Luka - put Powell on display for others to want - and if we tank we get a better shot at a good player. getting a top 4 would help accelerate our rise to the top by getting a good young player or someone we could package for another good player. if we don't get a top 4 pick then our pick conveys and we can move on and worry about the upcoming years.
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:01 AM   #87
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Did y'all ever play Spades? If so, ever play a game where EVERYONE bids 'null'? It's crazy...and that's what tanking is like these days. You win games you were sure you were going to lose, simply because the other side wanted to lose more than you did. The Mavs really aren't equipped with that mindset.
bidding null in solo spades is freakin' hard
much better to do so in cooperation with a partner
good times playing spades...
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:25 AM   #88
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Mavs are currently in 7th position, needing to pass up Memphis and ATL. They are SIX games ahead of ATL. That's going to be hard to do, especially since ATL has zero interest in trying to win themselves. They also need to pass Memphis, and Memphis is a mess (but did just drub the Mavs).

The problem with tanking these days is everybody is doing it.
Actually Memphis isnt tanking, they are trying hard.

Why? Because they own a pick to Boston: Top-8 protected this year, Top-6 next year and unprotected (!) in 2021. And that 2021 unprotected pick situation is just a horrible for a team that is beginning the rebuild. They will be bad for at least two years and they dont wanna pick like #6 this year, then again top-6 next year, still suck and then send an unprotected pick to Boston.

Memphis is 3-9 in the last games, all six losses with six points or less (Thunder, Clippers, Spurs....). We play them twice at the end of the season, so i think even with no tanking (aka resting Luka) we have a nice shot at the 6th place. Memphis is probably gunning for the #8 or #9 record so they send the pick to Boston and then they can trade Conley and tear it all down

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Old 03-08-2019, 03:00 PM   #89
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I saw this and thought it was interesting

Since 1980, the top five draft positions have produced All-Stars at least 30% of the time, while just 19% of No. 6 picks have achieved that honor.
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Old 03-08-2019, 10:46 PM   #90
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@Rrlewis2: #Mavs are now just 1 game back from Memphis for the 6th best lottery odds.

If they nabbed the 6th spot they would have a 9.0% chance at landing the #1 pick & a 37.2% chance at getting into the top 4.
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Old 03-09-2019, 12:30 AM   #91
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@Rrlewis2: #Mavs are now just 1 game back from Memphis for the 6th best lottery odds.

If they nabbed the 6th spot they would have a 9.0% chance at landing the #1 pick & a 37.2% chance at getting into the top 4.
Probably their best hope as of right now......just hope they get into that lottery with the 6th best odds.
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Old 03-09-2019, 04:37 AM   #92
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I saw this and thought it was interesting

Since 1980, the top five draft positions have produced All-Stars at least 30% of the time, while just 19% of No. 6 picks have achieved that honor.
The number 5 pick traded for the number 3 pick has produced Luka 100% every time.
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Old 03-09-2019, 10:55 AM   #93
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So say we get pick 3, 4 or 5...what do we do? Who fits with us? If we’re able to pick Ja Morant, what can we trade the pick for, etc?
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:36 AM   #94
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I think they would shop the pick and see what they could get. Wouldnt be surprised if they try to get Jrue in a trade
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Old 03-09-2019, 08:14 PM   #95
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So say we get pick 3, 4 or 5...what do we do? Who fits with us? If we’re able to pick Ja Morant, what can we trade the pick for, etc?
We can't get the 5th pick unless we have the 5th worst record and no outside team jumps into the top 4
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Old 03-11-2019, 07:37 AM   #96
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All Things Mavs@All_Things_Mavs
After last night, here are the Mavs percentage chances at each pick in the 2019 Draft:
1: 8.3
2: 8.6
3: 8.8
4: 9.1
5: -
6: 8.6
7: 30.7
8: 21.7
9: 4.0
10: 0.2
They have a 34.8% chance of landing in the top four, which they must do to keep their pick.
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Old 03-11-2019, 09:19 AM   #97
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All Things Mavs@All_Things_Mavs
After last night, here are the Mavs percentage chances at each pick in the 2019 Draft:
1: 8.3
2: 8.6
3: 8.8
4: 9.1
5: -
6: 8.6
7: 30.7
8: 21.7
9: 4.0
10: 0.2
They have a 34.8% chance of landing in the top four, which they must do to keep their pick.
Thanks for the info..that's exactly what I came here to find out..the Mavs odds of finishing in the top 4..
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Old 03-11-2019, 12:48 PM   #98
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I'm humbled. I didn't think it was even possible to catch the Wizards. I put the odds of passing Memphis as 50/50 and the odds of passing the Wizards at 5% or so.

Now we are tied with the Wizards and the Wizards have the easier schedule remaining.

No real way to get to #5, but sole possession of #6 is about the best we can do and I'm happy with that. About 1 in 3 chance of a pick.
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:15 PM   #99
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I'm humbled. I didn't think it was even possible to catch the Wizards. I put the odds of passing Memphis as 50/50 and the odds of passing the Wizards at 5% or so.

Now we are tied with the Wizards and the Wizards have the easier schedule remaining.

No real way to get to #5, but sole possession of #6 is about the best we can do and I'm happy with that. About 1 in 3 chance of a pick.
Finishing in the 6-7 spot gives us decent enough odds at keeping the pick... It also affects how high we pick in the second round, so even if we don't get lucky in the lottery, we'll still gain some value later in the draft.


EDIT: The Tankathon simulator is a huge tease -- Mavs moved up to top-4 in 7/10 tries for me, always picking one of them Duke boys (can't go wrong with Bo or Luke).
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Old 03-11-2019, 02:27 PM   #100
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Finishing in the 6-7 spot gives us decent enough odds at keeping the pick... It also affects how high we pick in the second round, so even if we don't get lucky in the lottery, we'll still gain some value later in the draft.


EDIT: The Tankathon simulator is a huge tease -- Mavs moved up to top-4 in 7/10 tries for me, always picking one of them Duke boys (can't go wrong with Bo or Luke).
Out of 10 tries mine wasn't as good:

8.3.1.7.1.7.9.2.9.2
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:30 PM   #101
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Out of 10 tries mine wasn't as good:

8.3.1.7.1.7.9.2.9.2
50% isn't bad when the odds are only 36%... And if we don't move into the top 4, then I'd love to see the pick get bumped down so the Hawks' return is less.
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:54 PM   #102
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2 7 7 7 7 3 7 4 8 4

at least 40% but no Zion
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Old 03-11-2019, 07:39 PM   #103
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I was out last night, and I gotta say, the couple of checks I did on the game were exquisite. First check: Mavs down big, Luka clearly struggling. Second check, Luka starting to play better, Mavs down around 10. Third check, game over, Luka barely misses triple double, Mavs come all the way back and lose by single digits and then the Grizzlies have won as well. Beautiful tanking.
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Old 03-11-2019, 08:25 PM   #104
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Wizards win again!
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Old 03-11-2019, 08:34 PM   #105
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Wizards win again!
Woot! All alone in 6th place
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Old 03-12-2019, 06:29 PM   #106
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If Dirk doesn't miss a game the rest of the season he just needs 3 games with 3 points and the rest with 2 points to pass Wilt. I'd laugh if he played this poorly.
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Old 03-13-2019, 11:50 AM   #107
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We are now in exclusive ownership of the 6th worst record.

37.2% of keeping our pick this year (top 4 pick)
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Old 03-13-2019, 02:40 PM   #108
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If Dirk doesn't miss a game the rest of the season he just needs 3 games with 3 points and the rest with 2 points to pass Wilt. I'd laugh if he played this poorly.
He needs to get the points as early as possible. He could strain a hammy and miss games.
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Old 03-13-2019, 07:12 PM   #109
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Hawks may be on a late season run....can we go below them?

Update: officially watching Washington vs. Orlando and Memphis vs. Atlanta on League Pass. I need help

Last edited by endtroducing MASKED; 03-13-2019 at 07:36 PM.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:07 PM   #110
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Wizards win again!
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:20 PM   #111
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If we lose out....I wonder can we catch the Hawks?
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:41 PM   #112
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Hawks win (they have 24 wins now), Grizzlies lose (28 wins).
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:08 AM   #113
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Probably their best hope as of right now......just hope they get into that lottery with the 6th best odds.
Looking at recent results...overtaking ATL for 5th not out of the question. Which would be ironic as f*$k. :-)
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:10 AM   #114
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I think they would shop the pick and see what they could get. Wouldnt be surprised if they try to get Jrue in a trade
I'm sure they'd listen to offers, but I think they'd be all in on youth. Take the pick, THEN work on filling in around that core--which the Mavs have always been great at doing. it's this drafting thing they're new at.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:58 AM   #115
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Hawks have 5 more losses.

Mavs only have 14 games left
Hawks only have 13 games left

If Hawks go 6-7 and Mavs go 1-13, we'd surpass them or something like that. Gonna be near impossible, but miracles happen.
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:41 AM   #116
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I'm sure they'd listen to offers, but I think they'd be all in on youth. Take the pick, THEN work on filling in around that core--which the Mavs have always been great at doing. it's this drafting thing they're new at.
Yeah but looks like this draft is outside Zion meh...no comparison to the 2018 ridiculous top depth of the 2018 draft.
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:57 PM   #117
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Yeah but looks like this draft is outside Zion meh...no comparison to the 2018 ridiculous top depth of the 2018 draft.
True (although you never know how players are going to turn out). So, if someone like Jrue is their best option...go for it!
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:58 PM   #118
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Yeah but looks like this draft is outside Zion meh...no comparison to the 2018 ridiculous top depth of the 2018 draft.
The problem with that is we're not LA or NY, so the league isn't going to arrange for us to have that first pick.
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Old 03-14-2019, 04:33 PM   #119
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The problem with that is we're not LA or NY, so the league isn't going to arrange for us to have that first pick.
Cleveland is one of the worst cities in the country and they got the #1 pick 3 out of 4 years
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:31 PM   #120
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Hawks have 5 more losses.

Mavs only have 14 games left
Hawks only have 13 games left

If Hawks go 6-7 and Mavs go 1-13, we'd surpass them or something like that. Gonna be near impossible, but miracles happen.
Yeah, just like them getting the 3rd pick last year and us dropping to 5th.
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