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Old 07-22-2020, 09:14 AM   #1
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Default Dallas Mavericks among the worst offenses in clutch time

NBA.com has the Mavericks with an offensive rating of 115.8 (different calculation than Basketball Reference) over all, but that number utterly collapses to 93.9 in clutch minutes, which are defined as the in the last five minutes of the game if the point differential is within five.

That partially has to do with their three point shooting. Over 50% of their clutch time shot attempt are threes, which is the most in the league, and they’ve hit just 22% of those attempts, which is the worst in the league.

This is concerning to say the least. But it’s also a small sample of minutes (128) spread out over 35 games, which is just under three minutes per game.
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Old 07-22-2020, 09:15 AM   #2
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Moderators please replace "one" in title with "among"
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Old 07-22-2020, 11:33 AM   #3
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Dirk's first years
1998-1999 - 26th in league at 93.0 (Dirk's rookie season)
1999-2000 - 12th in league at 105.8 (Dirk's sophomore season)
2000-2001 - 8th in league at 104.3 (Dirk's third year)

Luka's first years
2018-2019 - 23rd in league at 102.5 (Luka's rookie season)
2019-2020* - 29th in league at 93.9 (Luka's sophomore season)
2020-2021 - no data

I mean, Dirk also had Nash/Finley (as well as Rodman/Bradley) in 1999-2000. Sophomore Luka has a KP coming off injury and what? AS skilled as Luka is at distributing and creating, teams have figured out how to bother him in the clutch and he doesn't have the teammates to really punish them for double teaming him or giving him a step.
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Old 07-22-2020, 03:55 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Dirk's first years
1998-1999 - 26th in league at 93.0 (Dirk's rookie season)
1999-2000 - 12th in league at 105.8 (Dirk's sophomore season)
2000-2001 - 8th in league at 104.3 (Dirk's third year)

Luka's first years
2018-2019 - 23rd in league at 102.5 (Luka's rookie season)
2019-2020* - 29th in league at 93.9 (Luka's sophomore season)
2020-2021 - no data

I mean, Dirk also had Nash/Finley (as well as Rodman/Bradley) in 1999-2000. Sophomore Luka has a KP coming off injury and what? AS skilled as Luka is at distributing and creating, teams have figured out how to bother him in the clutch and he doesn't have the teammates to really punish them for double teaming him or giving him a step.
Part of it for me is that we are very predictable down the stretch in close games as its pretty much all Luka hero ball at the top of the key. He was pretty good in those situations last year...not so much this year.
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Old 07-22-2020, 05:15 PM   #5
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Rookie year Clutch stats
OFFRTG - Luka 103.8 - Dirk 97.0
TS% - Luka 55.0% - Dirk 39.4%

Sophomore year Clutch stats
OFFRTG Luka 95.2 - Dirk 100.4
TS% - Luka 41.9% - Dirk 65.2%

Looks like Luka had a better rookie year, but he's in a major downturn. Teams have just figured him out and we need more talent to go around him. Dirk was so successful, because he had Nash and Fin.
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Old 07-22-2020, 05:28 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Rookie year Clutch stats
OFFRTG - Luka 103.8 - Dirk 97.0
TS% - Luka 55.0% - Dirk 39.4%

Sophomore year Clutch stats
OFFRTG Luka 95.2 - Dirk 100.4
TS% - Luka 41.9% - Dirk 65.2%

Looks like Luka had a better rookie year, but he's in a major downturn. Teams have just figured him out and we need more talent to go around him. Dirk was so successful, because he had Nash and Fin.
I don't know if I'd go that far and say they've figured him out as he's destroying teams in the first three quarters in a way that he couldn't as a rookie but when it comes down to the clutch we become extremely predictable and part of that is Luka and his decision-making. He's a guy that wants the ball in his hands and wants to take the last shot so teams know that's what's coming. In quarters 1-3 where his game is mixed up more with not just the stepback but also his driving and passing ability, he's a nightmare to defend. In the last 2 minutes of a tight game Luka is damn near looking for the stepback three 90% of the time and the opposition knows it.
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Old 07-22-2020, 11:38 PM   #7
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Because everyone can whack Luka in crunchtime with no calls.

resulting in missed baskets, TOs or Luka settling for stepbacks
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Old 07-23-2020, 06:42 AM   #8
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It just goes to show that the Mavs' biggest weakness by far is the lack of a secondary ball-handler/playmaker. If our offense has to rely on Luka to do create every single shot opportunity for himself and for others, then opponents know that they don't have to worry about guarding anyone else. That is simply not a recipe for success. It's the same reason Luka's 3pt% is so low. He has to create every shot himself off the dribble. Almost none of his baskets are assisted.

All that being said, I do also think he simply takes too many step-backs. That is one of the few areas of his game that I think needs real improvement.
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:37 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GQ2003 View Post
Part of it for me is that we are very predictable down the stretch in close games as its pretty much all Luka hero ball at the top of the key. He was pretty good in those situations last year...not so much this year.
I agree

Luka takes too many poor step backs

Hardaway and curry are both very good catch and shoot players but luka goes into hero ball way too often late in games.

I think the efficiency would go up and improve once Luka tones down some of the ill advised attempts
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Old 07-23-2020, 10:22 AM   #10
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A lot of these issues were getting better right before the season shut down. The most important aspect is the chemistry between Luka and KP which was definitely improving to the point of Mavsgasms.
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:42 PM   #11
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A lot of these issues were getting better right before the season shut down. The most important aspect is the chemistry between Luka and KP which was definitely improving to the point of Mavsgasms.
I hate to say it, but I honestly think the injury to Powell did wonders for KP. It forced Carlisle to finally play KP at 5 and use him in pick and rolls instead of camping out behind the 3pt line and occasionally awkwardly posting up.
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:13 PM   #12
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Luka needs to learn to trust KP, THJ, and Curry.
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:45 PM   #13
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Luka needs to learn to trust KP, THJ, and Curry.
Huh? I don't think trust or lack thereof is the problem. The Mavs need another ball handler.
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:15 PM   #14
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I thought we were getting beyond this

Everyone stands around and watches Luka "hero ball" and his stats are miserable in crunch time. Luka at this point is the anti-Dirk, he doesn't have a clutch gear
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:41 PM   #15
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They do desperately need another crunch time ball handler. None of our guys can get to the rim of the bounce except Luka!
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:48 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by MFFL View Post
I thought we were getting beyond this

Everyone stands around and watches Luka "hero ball" and his stats are miserable in crunch time. Luka at this point is the anti-Dirk, he doesn't have a clutch gear
I mean in his defense at his age Dirk was anti-Dirk too. But at least Dirk had Finley and Nash to lean on. Luka hasn't hard that same type of leadership here.
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:49 PM   #17
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Entering Friday, teams were 2-711 when trailing by 7+ points with less than a minute to go in regulation.




Congrats on creating history Carlisle.....smh.
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:49 PM   #18
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Huh? I don't think trust or lack thereof is the problem. The Mavs need another ball handler.
I don't think that's the issue. In clutch situations Luka is the primary ball handler.
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Old 08-01-2020, 12:00 AM   #19
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I don't think that's the issue. In clutch situations Luka is the primary ball handler.
But defenders can close out hard knowing Fin/Maxi can barely dribble, Seth is a midget, KP not quick enough, Brunson no hops, etc. THJ or maybe JJb only other effective secondary ball handlers in that regard and THJ not a great finisher.

We desperately need another playmaker. None of the guys mentioned above are even above average passers!

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Old 08-01-2020, 12:18 AM   #20
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Not having a 2nd ball handler shouldn't be an excuse for all these late game meltdowns.

Some of these blown leads like tonight up 7 points with 45 seconds left has little to do with a secondary ball handler

Luka trying to make a highlight real pass to curry on the fast break that goes out of bounds or not boxing out knowing dam well they can only beat you with a rebound putback is just flat out low b-ball IQ

These are repetitive things that a secondary ball handler has nothing to do with

I'd like to see RC post Luka ass up in some of these situations where you know he's big and strong enough to score inside as opposed to standing around and mindlessly dribbling for 14-16 seconds only to settle for a darn step back 3 point brick or air ball

Those things consistently happen

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Old 08-01-2020, 09:33 AM   #21
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The poor shooting is a big reason why the Mavericks offense goes into the toilet during clutch situations. Dallas is scoring just 93.9 points per 100 possessions in the clutch this season, the second worst mark in the league and a far cry from their historic pacing offense overall. Doncic is shooting a remarkable 17 percent from three in those clutch minutes, just 6-of-35.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2020/7...ks-nba-restart
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Old 08-01-2020, 01:08 PM   #22
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The poor shooting is a big reason why the Mavericks offense goes into the toilet during clutch situations. Dallas is scoring just 93.9 points per 100 possessions in the clutch this season, the second worst mark in the league and a far cry from their historic pacing offense overall. Doncic is shooting a remarkable 17 percent from three in those clutch minutes, just 6-of-35.

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2020/7...ks-nba-restart
That is God awful

I wonder how many of those 35 attempts are step back 3"s by Luka

I sure hope this dude isn't just a 3 qtr stat padder and goes away every 4th qtr

If so we are in trouble as a franchise unless KP develops that close out Dirk like ability
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Old 08-02-2020, 01:11 PM   #23
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Luka has shot 29.0 percent of his 62 attempts in clutch time according to NBA Stats. Kristaps Porzingis is also below 30 percent on 34 tries. Tim Hardaway Jr. is only slightly better at 32.3 percent.
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Old 08-02-2020, 01:33 PM   #24
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Luka has shot 29.0 percent of his 62 attempts in clutch time according to NBA Stats. Kristaps Porzingis is also below 30 percent on 34 tries. Tim Hardaway Jr. is only slightly better at 32.3 percent.
shot or made?
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Old 08-02-2020, 01:40 PM   #25
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best and worst scorers in the clutch as measured by eFG%
1) Powell 100.0% (very low FGA, but when he gets open for a dunk, he puts up points)
2) DFS 67.6%
3) Kleber 56.3%
4) Brunson 53.0% - anyone remember him? prior to his injury we were winning at a .600 pace. We've been barely .500 since.
5) Boban 50.0%
6) Delon 50.0%
7) Curry 47.4%
8) THJ 37.9%
9) Luka 35.7%
10) KP 34.9%
Burke, Jackson, Lee, and Barea are all 0.0%

Who is getting clutch shots Clutch FGA)
1) Doncic 2.6 (shooting 35.7% eFG)
2) Burke 2.0 (shooting 0.0% eFG)
3) KP 1.7 (shooting 34.9% eFG)
4) THJ 1.1 (shooting 37.9% eFG)
5) Brunson 1.1 (shooting 54% eFG)

Basically other than Brunson, the top five guys getting shots in the clutch are the top five worst shooters in the clutch.
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Old 08-02-2020, 04:36 PM   #26
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shot or made?
I assume made

I took it from an article today about the recent Mavs woes in crunch time
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:42 PM   #27
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On the bright side, the Mavs are still the only team in the NBA to NOT have a 3 or more game losing streak
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Old 08-06-2020, 02:31 AM   #28
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This year they are learning how to play together, next year the real basketball will start
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