[Kirobaito]

OK, here are scenarios, as best as I can calculate them. Cowboys can play on the road at Minnesota, host Philly, play at Arizona, or host Green Bay. Or, in one, have a bye.

37.5% @ Minnesota
25% vs. Philadelphia
12.5% vs. Green Bay
12.5% @ Arizona
12.5% Bye

Strictly treating these games as 50/50 chances (which they're not), we'd most likely be going to Minnesota.

Minnesota wins, Philly wins, Arizona wins

1 NO
2 Phi 12-4
3 Min 12-4
4 Ari 11-5
5 GB 10-6
6 Dal 10-6

Minnesota wins, Philly wins, Arizona loses

1 NO
2 Phil 12-4
3 Minn 12-4
4 Ari 10-6
5 GB 11-5
6 Dal 10-6

Minnesota wins, Philly loses, Ari wins

1 NO
2 Minn 12-4
3 Ari 11-5
4 Dal 11-5
5 Phi 11-5
6 GB 10-6


Minnesota wins, Philly loses, Ari loses

1 NO
2 Minn 12-4
3 Dal 11-5
4 Ari 10-6
5 GB 11-5
6 Phi 11-5


Minnesota loses, Philly wins, Ari wins

1 NO
2 Phil 12-4
3 Ari 11-5
4 Minn 11-5
5 GB 10-6
6 Dal 10-6

Minnesota loses, Philly wins, Ari loses

1 NO
2 Philly 12-4
3 Minnesota 11-5
4 Arizona 10-6
5 GB 10-5
6 Dal 10-6

Minnesota loses, Philly loses, Ari wins

1 NO
2 Ari 11-5
3 Dal 11-5
4 Minn 11-5
5 Phi 11-5
6 GB 10-6

Minnesota loses, Philly loses, Ari loses

1 NO
2 Dal 11-5
3 Minn 11-5
4 Ari 10-6
5 GB 11-5
6 Phi 11-5

Wouldn't that be crazy.