Originally Posted by G-Man
Actually, Hollinger's problem is that he believes in his stats so strongly, he can't process any other information. I contend that the changes the Mavs made in their lineup with the trade renders all the stats from before the trade irrellevant. JH's stats have told him the trade was insignificant. He concluded that during the all-star break, before theyy ever played a game.
Anyone who has actually watched the games knows that, while Haywood is statistically similar to Damp, he took on some of the toughest centers in the NBA... Amare, Howard, J O'neal, Bynum and did not need double team help. He played smart, gave up points early to stay out of foul trouble, then defended them aggressively in the 2nd half. Anyone can see that Haywood has quicker feet, so he can run with guys who run off and leave Damp. Better center play makes the perimeter defense better, which is why teams stopped hitting 3's. THERE IS NO STAT FOR HOW HAYWOOD CHANGED THE MAVS, so to JH, it doesn't matter. The reality is his model fails to measure many things that do matter. If your stats ignore the obvious, its time to change your model.
His stats don't measure how much harder the team is playing now, or how much more effort Terry is putting in on Defense, or that Kidd is playing like he's 26 instead of 36. Butler may be statistically similar to Howard, but he plays harder,scores in the 4th quarter, goes to the hole more, draws more fouls and puts the best free throw shooting team in the NBA into the bonus sooner.
There is a stat that measures this. Its called an 8 game winning streak, against top playoff contenders. JH is so in love with his stats, he can't see when they are obviously wrong.
The smart thing for him to do is toss out the pre-trade stats, which he could do. At the very least, when he writes an article like this he could compare pre-trade to post trade. But that would expose the folly of his original conclusion that the trade was good for 1 more win. Instead he insists on only using full season stats. If the Mavs go back to sucking like they did before the trade, he'll be right. If they keep this up, he'll look stupid. He's just writtien that, even if they win 15 straight, they aren't any better. That's already stupid. However, if they blow out the weak teams coming up, their margin of victory will improve, and they will move up in his rankings.
Any system that gives high value to a blowout of the Clips and treats a close win over the Lakers as a fluke is bogus. The real fluke is whenJH's predictions are correct. (as for 2007, the Mavs only lost to GS because Nellie is the only coach who knew Dirk's game well enough to shut him down. Now That's a fluke)
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