Hollinger during his chat today:
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David (NYC)
John I thought the trade by the mavs for Butler and Haywood gives them toughness they never had and will make them a tough out in the playoffs, Dirk is as good as he ever was, how do you like their chances to beat the nuggets? How about the Lakers?
John Hollinger (12:12 PM)
I'm still highly skeptical. Scoring margin is a better predictor of future success than win-loss record; Dallas is 8th of the 8 likely West playoff teams in that metric. The trade makes them better, but those numbers haven't improved significantly since the deal, and of course they're not the only team that got players at or near the deadline.
Sam (alabama)
No way Dallas is the 14th best team in the league, as according to your power rankings. No Way!
John Hollinger (12:13 PM)
A lot of Dallas fans up in arms about this -- they fell two more spots after a rather unimpressive home escape against Minnesota last night. Again, scoring margin generally tells us a lot more about a team than win-loss record; what it's telling us about Dallas isn't what Mavs fans want to hear.
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More of the same Hollinger hate'n on the Mavs.
Quote:
Mark (Dallas)
I know you are a numbers guy and more often than not I agree with you. I think Dallas will be a prime example for years to come about the ability of your power ranking system to predict the future. Why? Because Dallas is 13-2 in games decided by 5 points or less, the have what is called veteran savy and probably the best assembly of clutch performers in the league and a "tough" team in general. The Mavs are what the Spurs were a couple years ago. Am I right with that assesment and can you understand why Mavs fans see their team in a more positive light than you do because of this?
John Hollinger (12:45 PM)
Actually they're 16-5 in those games, but let's proceed -- I have this debate every year with fans from a different team that happens to be fortunate in close games. They all think their players have magical clutch powers, but they don't. There is NO correlation -- none -- in that stat from year to year, even with teams that keep their personnel remarkably stable. I know Mavs fans are convinced Kidd is the greatest clutch player in history, for instance, but his Nets team in 2002-03 actually had the worst differential between their actual record and that expected by their scoring margin -- 49 wins with a 5.3 margin -- of any team in the last decade.
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Wait, what? When did Kidd become the "greatest clutch player in history" and who told him this is what Mavs fans believe? Pretty sure Mark was talking about Dirk, Terry, and Butler.
Quote:
Taj (Dallas)
Mavs post-trade point differential is +5.1, quite a bit better than their season average 2.3. If the Mavs continue this increased point differential advantage will you believe?
John Hollinger (12:31 PM)
You're right it's better since the trade ... and it needs to be. Even at +5.1, they're short of the Lakers/Magic/Cavs and basically even with the Hawks/Nuggets/Jazz/Celtics ... and that's looking at them in the best light we possibly can.
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By "basically even" I believe he means the Mavs would be 4th.