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j0Shi · 05-26-2011, 11:24 AM

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...-would-have-it

Can somebody help me on the conclusion of that article?

The author claims the Mavericks success in the WCF on luck and one point is that Dirk's performance in Game 1 was highly improbable. They are saying that there's a 1.8% chance that Dirk hits 12 of 15 or better. But in 1111 career games (yes, he reached the NBA Finals in his 1111th career NBA game!) he has done it only twice (2009 in Utah when he went 16 for 20 and in this years playoffs in Game 1 against the Thunder). According to their projection, he should have done is 19-20 times.

So I think it wasn't lucky but rather overdue.

05-26-2011, 11:24 AM	#1862
j0Shi Diamond Member Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 4,511	http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...-would-have-it Can somebody help me on the conclusion of that article? The author claims the Mavericks success in the WCF on luck and one point is that Dirk's performance in Game 1 was highly improbable. They are saying that there's a 1.8% chance that Dirk hits 12 of 15 or better. But in 1111 career games (yes, he reached the NBA Finals in his 1111th career NBA game!) he has done it only twice (2009 in Utah when he went 16 for 20 and in this years playoffs in Game 1 against the Thunder). According to their projection, he should have done is 19-20 times. So I think it wasn't lucky but rather overdue.