Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
If you buy the last 10 possessions as a reasonable alternative to the last 5 minutes as a definition of crunch time, that at least suggests that a quality closing unit (like Kidd/JET/Marion/Dirk/Chandler) can have a significant positive impact on a team's overall winning percentage in games that are close to tied over the home stretch.
Hollinger has completely missed the boat on that last point if you ask me.
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Yes! This is the part of our discussion that I am finding most stimulating. I think there are several rich areas to mine. For example, let's say that we are tied with two minutes left, or one minute even. Or to put it in our terms, for two or four or some number of "possessions." What are the thresholds in the respective scenarios where we can say with significant certainty that a team must have been a 55/45 or 60/40 favorite rather than a coin flip, for example.
Since you are crunching numbers, let me make sure I am thinking of "possessions" in the same way that you are. Are you calling a sequence where each team gets the ball one possession or two?