Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
Okay, I won't ignore nonexistent games anymore. How were games 6 and 7 of the world series last year? Did we win?
There's a better chance of there NOT being a game 7 in a 7 game series than the odds of having a game 7 (31% chance of a game 7 occuring). So the odds are that 69% of the time, it won't come to the point that the "advantage" team actually gets to game 7 to cash in their one opportunity to finally have an advantage in a 2-3-2 series. 87.5% of best of 7 series go at least 5 games, which in a 2-2-1-1-1 format gives the "advantage" team a chance to clinch the series in 5 games OR 7 games while at the same time having played more home games than the opposition in games 5 and 7. At no point would it be possible for the "advantage" team to lose a 2-2-1-1-1 series having played less home games than the opponent. It's pretty clear to me which format provides the biggest advantage to the team with a better record.
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With your logic, actually playing Game Seven at home is the only time home field advantage is capitalized upon. According to you, holding a 3-2 edge with two home games on the schedule doesn't constitute home field advantage until the first home game is lost.
There's a reason I get paid to analyze risk and you don't. Let's just leave it at that.