Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerLeft
I agree that an amnesty of Marion or Haywood is possible, but not likely. There would have to be a specific "home run" type of move waiting in the wings to motivate a Cuban money flush of that magnitude.
For Williams AND Howard? Sure, of course he'd do it to get that done, but that doesn't mean the Cubes is itching to pay that kind of money for a guy to play on another team - especially once you realize he'd have to DOUBLE his losses in order to replace either of those guys on THIS roster.
This is one of those myths that came about in an off the cuff, fly-by-night article attempting to illustrate the possibility of doing something really, really big (I think they called it 3D, lolz). The really, really big possibility has since dissipated, but for some reason people still think it makes sense to take the same drastic measures...for what - Chris Kaman? Nope.
As for the two players I mentioned, Beaubois and Jones, I agree there isn't much incentive to amnesty them right now. They're both relatively cheap when examined individually.
However, if somehow this payroll nears the tax level again next season (there are ways that could happen) and one of those guys figures to be outside of the regular rotation...yeah, using the amnesty tool on him would be highly plausible. It COULD get them under the tax threshold, which saves them the dollar for dollar tax - that's REAL LIVE MONEY, not salary cap "monopoly money."
Further, as we all know, the Mavs have just wasted a tax year by absorbing Lamar Odom's contract with their trade exception, so using the amnesty on Jones or Beaubois (again, if certain factors dictate that it's advantageous to do so) could reset the "repeater" tax countdown, and thereby save Cuban MILLIONS of dollars.
So yeah...I can't say I agree with your "no chance whatsoever" assessment, sorry. I will concede that a lot can change between now and the end of July, so anything is possible. If I had to guess today, I'd guess that neither Haywood nor Marion gets the amnesty axe.
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I'm in agreement that Haywood being amnestied isn't nearly as likely as many are making it. And I think there's about a 1% chance that Marion gets amnestied.
The problem with your scenario, though, is that it would probably be fairly easy to move either of those guys rather than amnesty them. In the case of Roddy, especially, I just don't see any scenario where he's amnestied. There are plenty of teams that would take on Roddy's contract.
Jones would be marginally harder to move, but I find it hard to believe that some team wouldn't take him on, maybe even taking a second round pick as incentive.
I'd say the ONLY way they use the amnesty on Jones or Roddy is if Haywood and Marion are traded this off season. If they're not maybe you don't amnesty one of them this season, but you sure as hell want to keep that amnesty provision in your back pocket,
One thing you seem to be overlooking: The amnesty provision has to be used by July 18th. The Mavs aren't really going to have the clear picture you're describing by then.
I also think it's very, very, very unlikely that the Mavs are in the luxury tax next season, or even close to it, really.