[rabbitproof]

You're right - I don't know what probability the Mavericks assigned to this beforehand so perhaps they calculated the Nets making a flurry of moves and their prospective impacts to Deron's decision accurately. Or at the least, and more likely, the MBT calculated the Nets could only impact Deron's decision by a not game ending amount with a few days in free agency through non-Deron personnel moves.

However, judging from JKidd's comments, the odds shifted quite a bit with the Nets' moves, thus, I am assuming things changed more than they anticipated. You're right I could be wrong but I think everybody was surprised by what the Nets did. Did anybody foresee the Nets' forgoing their Dwight chance to get JJ without giving up a real asset (MarShon or Lopez) to get Deron? It was a twist - people thought the Nets' would play their chance to get Dwight card as a selling point (while assuming that move would devoid the Nets of all their remaining assets). Dwight demanding to go to Brooklyn was actually a potential trump card but when Deron didn't commit with that, that's when the JJ stuff popped up and the Nets did a pretty decent pivot job by keeping all their primary assets while capturing JJ with just expirings.

I don't think (I could be wrong) the Mavs assumed the Nets would land a "big fish" (JJ qualifies) before Deron was going to make his decision. I think the Mavs thought the Nets were all in on Dwight and all the risks that were involved with that (might not happen, Dwight is kinda coocoo, it would cost them Lopez/Brooks/1sts).

For all we know, Deron wants to be the man. Dwight might've impeded on that and JJ doesn't.

I'm getting myself mixed up with all this game/trade theory.