The metrics, even the ones that give a stronger weight to recent performance, are all worthless for evaluating the Mavs' playoff chances because they're built on assumptions that simply are not met in the case of a team whose far and away best player was missing for most of the season to date, and who hasn't yet been able to consistently perform close to his usual standard since he got back. Doesn't mean the odds are better than 50%, but seriously, just toss out the point estimates given by those models. The Mavs this season are an outlier case, and the models aren't going to be capable of producing accurate predictions.
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"He's coming off the bench aggressive right away, looking for his shot. If he has any daylight, we need him to shoot the ball. We know it's going in."
-Dirk Nowitzki on Jason Terry, after JET's 16 point 4th quarter against the Pacers.
Last edited by grndmstr_c; 01-19-2013 at 03:24 PM.
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