[dude1394]

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<< To get the last shot you may have to pass up what seems a very good shot. Many times a prayer so what is better:

- Take a very good shot with a greater than 50% chance of making it.
- Take a desperation shot with less than 30% chance of making it but do no better than overtime.

I'm not sure I have a learned opinion on it. >>



The game situation is what is the most important consideration in taking a open shot early or waiting for the last shot.

Let's assume for simplicity sake's that there is time for a 50% and a 30%. We have the ball and can hold from a 30% shot or take a 50% shot and give the other team a chance to get a 30% shot. According to ESPN.com the Mavs get about 25% of all missed shots on our offensive end.

If we hold for the final shot we have a 30% of winning, 70% chance of going into overtime, and 0% chance of losing in regulation.

If we shoot early we have around a 38% chance of winning, 51% chance of going into overtime, and 11% chance of losing in regulation.

So by taking the early shot we increase our chance of winning in regulation by 8% which is good. But we increase our chance of losing even more by 11%. To me the risks outweigh the rewards. Hold the ball for one shot. >>



So if the 50% shot goes up to 80%(layup) is it still a good deal?