Dallas-Mavs.com Forums - View Single Post

Usually Lurkin · 02-24-2003, 10:40 AM

I was mostly joking earlier, but the question could be looked at more seriously.

You're describing the case of calculating win/loss probabilities based on situational probabilities that are averaged for the year.

Players on the floor, shot type, and a million other variables can go into the win/loss calculation, and minute adjustments in the win/loss probabilities can be calculated.

Can a professional basketball player be expected to calculate the finer adjustments during play?

Nelson seems to think so, at least when constraints are in place, reducing the number of variables. He goes with the more offensive line up, so that anyone might have a good chance of hitting the shot. He doesn't call a lot of timeouts, and encourages players to 'play their game', so that they know the decision is up to them. He's basically banking on the fact that Dallas has a great offense, and in any given situation, will have a high probability of scoring. Or maybe he figures a 2%-5% swing in probability is just not worth a timeout.

Others might think that the finer calculations are well worth the time out. Then the team has some time to make certain that everyone knows what the highest win/loss probability will be, and can figure out the best way to get it done. Of course, this might not work so well with a bunch of guys who play better in the flow of things than in a half-court, set-play kind of situation.

02-24-2003, 10:40 AM	#301
Usually Lurkin Diamond Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 8,195	I was mostly joking earlier, but the question could be looked at more seriously. You're describing the case of calculating win/loss probabilities based on situational probabilities that are averaged for the year. Players on the floor, shot type, and a million other variables can go into the win/loss calculation, and minute adjustments in the win/loss probabilities can be calculated. Can a professional basketball player be expected to calculate the finer adjustments during play? Nelson seems to think so, at least when constraints are in place, reducing the number of variables. He goes with the more offensive line up, so that anyone might have a good chance of hitting the shot. He doesn't call a lot of timeouts, and encourages players to 'play their game', so that they know the decision is up to them. He's basically banking on the fact that Dallas has a great offense, and in any given situation, will have a high probability of scoring. Or maybe he figures a 2%-5% swing in probability is just not worth a timeout. Others might think that the finer calculations are well worth the time out. Then the team has some time to make certain that everyone knows what the highest win/loss probability will be, and can figure out the best way to get it done. Of course, this might not work so well with a bunch of guys who play better in the flow of things than in a half-court, set-play kind of situation.