Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
As long as there's another game to be played, there's always a nonzero chance the series can be won. That being said, the odds to be overcome are still astronomical, even if we ignore historical data on 3-0 situations since the Mavs aren't in that position anymore.
Only eight teams have come back from being down 3-1 to win, and six of those had the luxury of playing two of the remaining games at home.
Remember, we're still in a 2-7 matchup, a series that has only been won by the #7 seed five times, four of which were in the best-of-five format (try not to dwell on the other one too much).
Moreover, road teams don't often fare well in Game 5 in general, regardless of round or series tally. I don't have that statistic in front of me, but I recall their record is quite poor.
Then again, the Bucks won last night. So who am I kidding, we've obviously got this.
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NBA game 5 when down 3-1:
.280 (road teams win game 5 28% of the time
NBA first round game 5 when down 3-1:
.105 (road teams win game 5 10.5% of the time
Still, most of the time one team goes up 3-1, because they are far superior, and not because of a massive chemistry problem that gets resolved. I'd put our odds way higher than 10.5%, A) because basketball isn't played in stats. and B) because we are way better right now than our 3-1 would say, despite losing two starters. Maybe not even odds, but higher than 10.5%