Quote:
Originally Posted by MavzMan
Is 15-12-2-2 really playing "out of his mind"? I still think those numbers are about a $15-17 mill player. They are on the nice side but definitely not eye-catching. As far as points, this is a guy that does not create on his own but rather rely on pick-n-roll dunks and putbacks. Those are great and all, but they don't make the team better ... they actually rely on teammates.
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Yeah 15-12-2-2 isn't amazing but i also predict it will be done in 28-34 mpg, because he still plays the same position as 39-year-old Dirk and will still have minute restrictions. Maybe him being in a contract year will make him demand more minutes? That's also what makes me think he'll miss at least 25 games this season. The 2-2 is also important because his rebounding and scoring are unremarkable. Even if you look at his overall PER or EWA, you get a merely average center (roughly 30th in the league). If you look at how many statistical categories he gets something in and his defensive distuptiveness, you may be able to paint a picture of a top 10-15 center. The only two things that even imply that he should earn 10+ mill are his steals/blocks and defensive impact.
And yes, his stats will be inflated by two things
1) the Mavs are the worst rebounding team in the league so rebound opportunities will be everywhere.
2) lobs and dump-downs. You're right that they should not just be attributable to him- they're a result of a good pass, but they absolutely help the team by getting us two free points and preventing the team from playing a zone on our shooters. Once he gets some lobs teams have to adjust and shooters become open.