Quote:
Originally Posted by mac222b
I don't see anyway for them to finish top-3. I think we're looking at most likely 4-8. Probably 6 or 7
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Yeah this is a big enigma really. Like, I just heard on the radio that last time the Mavs played the Rockets there was no CP3. So when you look at the upcoming schedule & see a team like HOU you put it down as a loss, but if say both CP3 & Harden are out, then what.
I got to my 28 by basically saying the Mavs lose the next 3, and then gave them wins every time they faced a team like SAC, ORL, PHX & gave them a 2 or 3 surprise wins vs teams like IND or LAC. I never had them beating a top team, which likely they'll pull off 1 or 2 wins like that too, but also they'll likely give up more than a few games to teams like SAC & PHX; at least let's hope so.
SAC seems like they're clearly in tank mode. ORL might actually improve once they get Vucevic back & a guy like Payton is playing for his NBA future, so I have hopes they can post a better record than the Mavs. ATL is a real threat to finish worse than the Mavs; they just don't have the talent to put up very many wins. A team like Charlotte could be trouble if they deal Walker and/or more pieces.
On the brightside, LAL & BKN have no reason to try & tank, so the Mavs should be able to finish with a worse record than those two.
PHX & CHI are concerns, but I would have to say they're both more talented than the Mavs are and the Mavs currently have a 1.5 and 2.5 game lead on them both for worst record. Memphis is a concern too, but they'll get Conley Jr back at some point, probably post ASG, and they've had a tough schedule so far, so more winnable games are coming for them.
Honestly, outside of SAC and ATL, there's no team that I think the Mavs don't have at least as good a chance of finishing with a worst record than. Maybe ORL is in that mix too.
We've also said this draft looks to be 8 players deep. Just can't see the Mavs finishing with a record good enough to put them out of that top 8 category. They're just not very good. I really think they're in line for a top 3 pick, if they're smart & start tanking some of these games when they play a SAC or PHX etc. The good news is those times when SAC & PHX play each other, somebody has to take the W. Even better news would be like if Harrison Barnes pulls a hamstring or Wes Matthews is traded etc. Would love to see something like that happen. Because this draft might be 8 players deep, but we really want that top 3 pick.