Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
Because ESPN worked their mock backwards and thought about which players they'd like to see on certain teams, rather than considering where teams will actually finish and then determining who they'd most likely pick.
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Yeah I looked at several mocks last night, 5-6 most posted within the last 3-4 weeks, sites like Sporting News, SI, Bleacher Report, etc. Their draft order was ridiculous. One mock had Chicago drafting first, another had Boston drafting 2nd with the Lakers pick, one had the Kings drafting 5th. Let me tell you something, the biggest lock of this entire draft order is the Kings drafting in the top 3 picks.
But that's just bad research on their part. I saw one mock that had Boston picking 8th with the Lakers pick, but if the Lakers finish 8th that pick goes to Philadelphia. If whoever is putting the mock together doesn't even know that much, what does that say about the quality of their mock in general?
If the Mavs finish with the 6th worst record in the leauge, which I'm confident based on my research last night they will finish no worse than the 6th worst record, then the worst they could do is pick 9th. There would be a 1 in 100,000 chance they pick 9th, a 1 in 2,500 chance they pick 8th, and basically a 96% chance they pick 6th or 7th. I'm not certain I have the math exactly right on that, but the basic idea is right. Very long odds they would pick 8th or 9th, very likely they would pick 6th or 7th, with an outside shot at a top 3 pick.
Edit: Actually I think the math on picking 9th is 1 in 1,000, and the math on picking 8th is 1 in 400. Even this might be wrong, it's been a long time since I took a math class. Lol. Kinda same difference tho.