If Nerlens plays great the last 20 games, he'd be back. Almost no one is going to have cap space this summer, so we'd be one of the only teams that would be able to pay him over the non-taxpayer MLE of about $8.5M.
I think it's much more likely that he plays little or maybe has a stretch where he sees 15-20MPG and then falls back out of the rotation, and then he leaves this summer and probably has to play another season either on that MLE or maybe a similarly-sized one-year "prove it" kind of contract.
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