Originally Posted by KillerLeft
I am ready to make my prediction. Some of you won't like this, but I feel like it's going to happen, and I want the credit if it does (lol).
I think that Chris Paul trade happens, and I think the Mavs' role in that deal will be to take on Ricky Rubio. They might also be angling for a pick swap (#10 for #18), in which case I believe the target would be either Vassell or SBey, but I'm pretty skeptical that OKC makes the deal without getting #10.
So, DFS/Wright outgoing, with Rubio coming in. OUTSIDE chance of #10 coming in with #18 (and probably #31) going out.
Before anyone freaks out about "how do Luka and Rubio play together" let me just say:
Rubio is still an EXCELLENT on-ball defender. His lineups with Booker last year were very positive in +/-, and actually, Rubio, himself was #7 in the league in on/off net rating. He was a plus in both offensive and defensive on/off. He's one of the most underrated players in the league, actually. His catch and shoot numbers from distance are much better than you think. He's improving as an off-ball shooter as he ages, much like Jason Kidd did.
I think the Mavs want a player to not only be a secondary playmaker (which he is MORE than qualified to be) but also play a little PG. If you can remember how Kidd would bring the ball up, survey the defense, get the team into the right set and then let JET actually run the play, you'll know what I mean. Even just bringing the ball up 20 times a game and allowing Luka to catch the ball with a live dribble at the right spot for the action to start would take A LOT of pressure off of Luka. During most possessions, Rubio will be a ball mover, secondary playmaker and corner catch and shoot guy. And, I believe he'll be damn good at it.
DFS would be a huge loss, but imo, once you get over the shock and wrap your head around it, you'll come to the conclusion that Rubio is a much, much better player. Worth it, I think.
I also think they follow this up by signing Paul Milsap for 2 years at the MLE. There has been a rumor out there about him, but it didn't make sense to sigh him for more than one year, and it doesn't make sense that he'd sign here on a one year deal. He'll get better offers. But, if you imagine Rubio here, the two year deal makes more sense because they'd both expire in '22. Or, they could both be used as 1-year, expiring trade chips next summer if/when the Mavs find a sign-and-trade option they like with one of those free agents. Milsap was #4 in the NBA last year in net on/off rating, btw. He's still a difference maker, and would fit next to KP pretty damn well.
Boom. That's two edgy, veteran winners. That's a hell of an off-season and a chance to get out of the first round. The team would have a chance to be much better on both sides of the court.
The only downside to all of this, imo, is that it leaves them with Jackson being the only true SF option on the team. That's obviously not ideal. If you're an optimist and you think they'll get #10, there will definitely be a plug and play guy there. Hopefully Vassell, but SBey, at least. If not, maybe they draft Josh Green (who I'm not super high on) or Nesmith at #18? Or, maybe SBey even falls that far (probably not).
Hell, they might even be able to swap THJ in a separate deal for a forward. Not sure they'd want to, but it's a possibility.
Flame away, but I promise you I have an answer for everything. I've been fixated on this option for like 48 straight hours. Of all the (realistic) things that have been leaked, this is the scenario that makes the most sense to me, and I think it's telling that they have NOT allowed themselves to be linked publicly to Rubio. That seems very Mavs-esque.
|