Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerLeft
I skimmed the last page, so hopefully I’m not misunderstanding the conversation, but:
Go check the attempts...THJ was the primary shooter last year, tbh. He shot 40% on over 500 attempts (7.2 per game, 8.8 per 36). The only shooters who made a bigger impact at such a high volume were Robinson, Reddick and Hield. That’s ELITE company.
If you think it might have been an outlier, and that he won’t be as good this season, that’s fair. But, it is inaccurate to say that Curry was more important to the Mavs last season than THJ. Curry is a better shooter, but he’s even more one dimensional than THJ. And, for whatever reason, Curry doesn’t seem to be able to get enough shots off to make his one dimension work for his team in as meaningful of a way. Maybe it’s just his size, maybe his release is too slow (it’s definitely not as quick as THJ’s) or maybe he’s just selfishly concerned about his percentages.
I love Curry, and I was sorry to see him go, but the team’s only real trade assets were three value players on value contracts: Curry, DFS and Kleber. Of those three, Curry is unquestionably the one I feel was least crucial moving forward. To get Richardson AND a pick (Tyler Bey!!) for him was a master stroke, imo.
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This/Must spread rep.
THJ was tied for 20th in 3pt FGA and shot 40% from three so only 19 other guys in the entire league shot more (Doncic was one). It's not like he was averaging 2 attempts and now we're going to ask him to do 7. He had 7.2 attempts and I fully expect him to average 6-8 again this year. He also averaged 40% on those 7.2 attempts. Thats a huge number of attempts and a great percentage.
So let's look at the gains/losses.
Guys we lost
Wright 0.6 made, 1.7 attempted 37.0%
Jackson 0.7 made, 2.5 attempted, 29.4%
Curry 2.3 made 5.0 attempted 45.2%
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Total loss of 3.6 made threes, 9.2 attempted threes 39.1%
Guys we gained
Burke 2.0 made 4.6 attempted 43.2%
Johnson 1.2 made 3.3 attempted 37.0%
Richardson 1.5 made, 4.5 attempted 34.1%
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Total added 4.7 made threes, 12.4 attempted threes 38%
Guys we still don't know about, but who may be able to shoot
Green - rookie 3/D guy. Was 36% in college (67% in last month of the season. Incredibly efficient in catch and shoot)
Terry - rookie sharpshooter. Was 41% in college (top three in efficiency with catch and shoot shots)
WCS - barely attempted a shot, but worked on it and it may have "clicked"
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Total added: too early to tell. Rookies may not play. WCS may not perform outside of the gym.
Net change: +1.1 made threes, +3.4 attempts -1.1% efficiency
I'd wager $100 that Richardson shoots better this year than last and the combination of Richardson/Johnson/Burke in 2020-2021 outshoot Jackson/Curry/Wright in 2019-2020, but even if they don't, I see zero reason why THJ would have to dramatically take on a higher three-point load than last year. We actually got more guys comfortable shooting the three and they're almost as efficient as a whole. Plus we'll have Brunson back (36%) and eventually KP will return who shot 6 threes a game and made over 50% of them in the playoffs (38% in the bubble on 7 attempts a game). There are actually only a couple of guys on the whole roster who can't shoot a three (Boban and Powell are the only two guys on the roster who can't hit 30%)
Returning guys. 40%=specialist (eFG%=60%) 35%= good (eFG% 52.5%) 30%=baseline efficiency to keep defenders honest (eFG% 45%)
THJ - 2.9makes 7.2attempts 39.8%
DFS - 1.6makes 4.3 attempts 37.6%
Kleber - 1.6makes 4.3attempts 37.3%
Brunson - 0.8makes 2.1attempts 35.8%