[purplefrog]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Here are some stats to consider (Rank in NBA):

FG% Season (SSN): 46.9% (#12)
FG% Last 10 games (L10): 46.65% (#14)

3Pt% SSN: 36.1% (#18)
3PT% L10: 36.63% (#12)

Rebounds per game SSN: 43.5 (#21)
Rebounds per game L10: 47.0 (#4)

Opponent Points per game SSN: 109.6 (#8)
Opponent Points per game L10: 101.3 (#2)

Over the last 10 games, the Mavs are 7-3. In the losses:

FG% 41.2%
3Pt% 26.9%
Rebounds 45
Opponent Points 108

What stands out to me are the rebounding stats. The Mavs have become a much better rebounding team. Second, opponent points are also much better over the last 10 games (Mavs giving up fewer points per game) and even when they lose those numbers are competitive vs. the rest of the league. Finally, over the last 10 games 3Pt% is a predictor of a loss. The three losses were in fact their poorest shooting from the 3Pt line during this stretch of games (not really surprising). If the Mavs can rebound and hold opponents to 100-105 points, then you could argue they will be competitive in a playoff series (I realize that the competition will be tougher than those teams played in the last 10 games). They held the Jazz to 103 points and the Blazers to 92 during that stretch and held every team (except the Thunder) to under their season average (Thunder scored their season average). Room for optimism?

Last five games Mavs allowed 116.6 points per game. The competition during this period averages 111.6 ppg for the season. Nothing more needs to be said. Defense requires effort. Mavs have shown they can play good defense but are just not doing that right now.