Quote:
Originally Posted by tap2390
INot only do we have a good chance of retaining our pick if we actually *try* to win... we will almost certainly retain it if we tank. We should 100% be tanking. We need the asset more than we need a play-in loss or first round exit.
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I don't think you have that right. Good chance? In modern English, that usually means more than 50%
1st round exit -
0% chance of keeping our pick
14th (and lose play-in) -
2.4% chance of keeping pick
13th (and lose play-in) -
4.7% chance of keeping pick
12th -
7.2% chance of keeping pick
11th -
9.4% chance of. keeping pick
10th -
13.9% chance of keeping pick
It's unlikely we can even get to 10th worst record in the league, but even then we have an 86.1% chance of giving the pick to New York. I don't think I'd call that a "good chance"