Assuming no ties:
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4) - current position
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
=====================================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick
Of course, if we somehow end up keeping our pick (1-10), we still owe the Knicks 2024.
The worst possible scenario in my opinion is that we lose this pick to the Knicks, have no 1st/2nd round picks at all, lose talent this offseason, and still owe 2029 to the Nets unprotected so even if we tank, we can't keep that pick.
Best solution: tank hard to keep the pick, draft a big or defensive wing, SnT Kyrie or Luka for some role players and maybe a star-ish player, and get Luka some counseling to take care of his personal issues.
Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 03-25-2023 at 11:25 AM.
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