Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson
I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion here but honestly... I think Jokic is the MVP. Luka is a very, very, very close second. But team success weighs very heavily for the award, and the Nuggets have been considerably better than the Mavs. If we had made the trades for Gafford and PJ at the beginning of the season instead of the trade deadline and had been this good all year, Luka would not only be MVP, he'd probably be the unanimous MVP. But the Mavs were mediocre almost all year, and while that isn't Luka's fault, that's just how it works. Winning MVP, just like winning a championship, requires a bit of good luck, on top of just being good. Just look at Embiid. He was the overwhelming favorite to win his 2nd straight, but then he got hurt. Bad luck.
On top of the team success factor, advanced stats favor Jokic over Luka too, albeit not by much. PER, win shares, value over replacement, box +/-, Jokic leads the league in all of them. Jokic is the best player in the world right now. Luka is a very close 2nd.
All that being said, if I was gambling man, I'd bet good money that Luka will be MVP next year. A: because the Mavs are way better, barring injury disaster, will win a lot more games next year. B: because Luka technically isn't even in his prime yet and is just now entering it, which is absolutely insane to think about, and C: because for lack of a better word, it's Luka's "turn." Last year was Embiid's turn, even though Jokic probably deserved to win it yet again, but I think there was voter fatigue for Jokic, and they really, really wanted to give it to Embiid. They want to give it to Luka too, but the Mavs just haven't been good enough yet. If the Mavs win 55 or so games next year, which I think is a very safe bet, Luka is a lock for MVP.
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