Dallas-Mavs.com Forums - View Single Post

Marv Albert · 05-06-2003, 06:47 PM

I think its funny how they cite these guys predicting the Pistons (#1 seed) would beat Orlando (#8 seed) as evidence of how smart they are.

And those lesser used lineups being better in the ratings doesn't surprise me. The Bulls are a bad team, whichever lineup they use the most is going to be the one they lose the most points (and games) with. They don't have any players who can put up 35+ minutes of great play and they lose almost twice as many games as they win, that basically guarantees a bad rating for whoever plays the most minutes for them.

As mentioned by someone else, context is everything. If their highest rated lineup got most of their action in against the opposition's 2nd team during blowouts, then that data is worthless because thats not anywhere close to being as relevant as what happens in a close game where you keep a certain lineup out there because they give you the best chance to win. The system is greatly flawed because it doesn't appear to factor in context, 5 minutes of crunch time appears to be worth the same as 5 minutes of garbage time. If the Bulls are down 30 with 5 minutes to go and Jay Williams hits 4 meaningless three pointers in that period, he could be rated higher than a game where Jalen scores 8 hard earned points in the last 5 mins to bring them to a win.

05-06-2003, 06:47 PM	#5
Marv Albert Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 40	I think its funny how they cite these guys predicting the Pistons (#1 seed) would beat Orlando (#8 seed) as evidence of how smart they are. And those lesser used lineups being better in the ratings doesn't surprise me. The Bulls are a bad team, whichever lineup they use the most is going to be the one they lose the most points (and games) with. They don't have any players who can put up 35+ minutes of great play and they lose almost twice as many games as they win, that basically guarantees a bad rating for whoever plays the most minutes for them. As mentioned by someone else, context is everything. If their highest rated lineup got most of their action in against the opposition's 2nd team during blowouts, then that data is worthless because thats not anywhere close to being as relevant as what happens in a close game where you keep a certain lineup out there because they give you the best chance to win. The system is greatly flawed because it doesn't appear to factor in context, 5 minutes of crunch time appears to be worth the same as 5 minutes of garbage time. If the Bulls are down 30 with 5 minutes to go and Jay Williams hits 4 meaningless three pointers in that period, he could be rated higher than a game where Jalen scores 8 hard earned points in the last 5 mins to bring them to a win. __________________ YES!!