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Chiwas · 10-01-2004, 12:05 AM

Scoring the Debate
More Viewers Say Kerry Won Debate, But Voter Preferences Remain the Same
ABC News

Sept. 30, 2004 — John Kerry won the first debate and with it a shot at reinvigorating his campaign for the presidency. But in the first blush, vote preferences among viewers were unmoved.

Among a random sample of 531 registered voters who watched the debate, 45 percent called Kerry the winner, 36 percent said it was Bush, and 17 percent called it a tie. It was a clean win for Kerry: Independents by a 20-point margin said he prevailed.

Moreover, while 70 percent of Bush's supporters said Bush was the winner, considerably more Kerry supporters — 89 percent — said their man won.

Who Won? (Among Debate Viewers)
Kerry 45%
Bush 36
Tie 17

As is customary, the debate did not immediately change many minds. Bush's support was 50 percent among viewers before the debate, and 51 percent after it; Kerry's, 46 percent before, 47 percent after. Ralph Nader had 1 percent before and a tad less than that after.

Vote Preference Among Debate Viewers
Before the debate After the debate
Bush 50% 51
Kerry 46 47
Nader 1 <0.5

This kind of outcome is typical in presidential debates, which tend to reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. But the debates — an essential window on the candidates' styles as well as their substance — can affect the race more subtly as voters move toward their final judgments.

The results of this survey are not among all registered or likely voters; instead they are among registered voters who watched the debate Thursday night. They are, however, similar to the race overall, 51-45 percent among likely voters in an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this week.

Party ID

Political party allegiance of debate viewers also was quite similar to its division among all likely voters nationally in the last ABC/Post poll. Among debate viewers, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans and 24 percent as independents. That compares with a 36-35-23 percent division among all likely voters in the ABC/Post survey.

Party ID of Debate Viewers
Democrats 35%
Republicans 35
Independents 24

Partisanship drove views of who won, but again the advantage was to Kerry. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said Bush won, but 81 percent of Democrats said Kerry won. And among independents, as noted, 48 percent said Kerry won, while 28 percent picked Bush.

Who Won?
Kerry Bush Tie
Democrats 81% 6 11
Republicans 6 69 22
Independents 48

10-01-2004, 12:05 AM	#28
Chiwas Guru Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 13,363	RE: Debate Pregame and Postgame Thread Scoring the Debate More Viewers Say Kerry Won Debate, But Voter Preferences Remain the Same ABC News Sept. 30, 2004 — John Kerry won the first debate and with it a shot at reinvigorating his campaign for the presidency. But in the first blush, vote preferences among viewers were unmoved. Among a random sample of 531 registered voters who watched the debate, 45 percent called Kerry the winner, 36 percent said it was Bush, and 17 percent called it a tie. It was a clean win for Kerry: Independents by a 20-point margin said he prevailed. Moreover, while 70 percent of Bush's supporters said Bush was the winner, considerably more Kerry supporters — 89 percent — said their man won. Who Won? (Among Debate Viewers) Kerry 45% Bush 36 Tie 17 As is customary, the debate did not immediately change many minds. Bush's support was 50 percent among viewers before the debate, and 51 percent after it; Kerry's, 46 percent before, 47 percent after. Ralph Nader had 1 percent before and a tad less than that after. Vote Preference Among Debate Viewers Before the debate After the debate Bush 50% 51 Kerry 46 47 Nader 1 <0.5 This kind of outcome is typical in presidential debates, which tend to reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. But the debates — an essential window on the candidates' styles as well as their substance — can affect the race more subtly as voters move toward their final judgments. The results of this survey are not among all registered or likely voters; instead they are among registered voters who watched the debate Thursday night. They are, however, similar to the race overall, 51-45 percent among likely voters in an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this week. Party ID Political party allegiance of debate viewers also was quite similar to its division among all likely voters nationally in the last ABC/Post poll. Among debate viewers, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans and 24 percent as independents. That compares with a 36-35-23 percent division among all likely voters in the ABC/Post survey. Party ID of Debate Viewers Democrats 35% Republicans 35 Independents 24 Partisanship drove views of who won, but again the advantage was to Kerry. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said Bush won, but 81 percent of Democrats said Kerry won. And among independents, as noted, 48 percent said Kerry won, while 28 percent picked Bush. Who Won? Kerry Bush Tie Democrats 81% 6 11 Republicans 6 69 22 Independents 48 __________________