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Campaign Journal
By: Al Hunt

Polls Offer Conflicting Signals
About Crucial Voter Blocs

Kerry Has Slight Edge Among Catholics
But Bush Leads With Married Women
October 21, 2004
The two presidential candidates' standing among closely watched swing groups is just as confusing and conflicting as the electorate at large.

Five groups -- Catholics, the Midwest, independents, older voters and married women -- should provide a good indicator of how this tight presidential race is leaning. But judging from the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which shows a tie overall among likely voters, there are wide swings in a few of these blocs from a month ago, cutting both ways.

One caveat: The margin of error in this poll, which is 3% overall, is greater among the smaller subgroups. With that in mind, here is the breakdown two weeks out:

CATHOLICS: John Kerry is the first Catholic presidential candidate in 44 years. He also is the subject of intense criticism from conservative Catholics for his pro-choice stance on abortion and espousal of embryonic stem-cell research. In the latest survey, Sen. Kerry has a one-point edge among Catholic voters, about matching Al Gore's showing four years ago, but a slight slip from his standing in September.

Catholics, who comprise about a quarter of the electorate, are strikingly similar to other voters on the economy and Iraq, and a little more negative about the job President Bush is doing. But on social-cultural issues, they differ from the church's leadership. A clear majority oppose a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, a decidedly more tolerant view than non-Catholics. And they support embryonic stem-cell research by an overwhelming margin.

INDEPENDENTS: With voters of both parties prepared to vote overwhelmingly this year for their nominee, this 20% slice of the electorate should be crucial. Currently, Mr. Bush enjoys a 46% to 41% advantage, with Ralph Nader at 4%, although other polls have shown the Democratic nominee doing better with these voters. Predictably, there are more undecideds among independents than among party-affiliated voters. Mr. Bush has widened his lead a little bit from a month ago and from the margin he enjoyed over Al Gore in 2000.

"If Bush continues to do this well with independents, he wins," suggests Bill McInturff, a Republican, who with Peter Hart, a Democrat, conducts the WSJ/NBC News poll. Mr. Kerry has actually shown some improvement with this group's view of him -- as commander-in-chief, for example -- but Mr. Bush still does a little better on these types of questions.

MIDWEST: If independents are an important barometer politically, then regionally, close presidential elections usually are decided in America's heartland. And here is where it gets confusing in this poll. In the Midwest, Sen. Kerry now is leading 51% to 43%. In both last month's survey and four years ago, this region went for George Bush.

Bill McInturff explains that the current survey shows a larger-than-expected Democratic sample in the Midwest: "If that's real, it'd be a real concern for Republicans," he added, though he questions whether that will be the case on Election Day.

MARRIED WOMEN: This group has been Sen. Kerry's Achilles' heel. Normally, a Democratic candidate would hope to break even with these voters. But last month, apparently reflecting concerns about security and terrorism, married women gave the president a 15-point advantage. Sen. Kerry has reduced that to 10 points in the latest WSJ/NBC poll but probably has to do better to win on Nov. 2.

The poll shows an interesting dichotomy between the views of married and single women. When asked which matters more to them in this election, terrorism and values or health care and the economy, single women, by a sizeable margin, answer health care and the economy. But among married women, terrorism and values run 12 points ahead of jobs and health care.

SENIORS: This, too, is a problem for the Democratic nominee, according to the latest poll. Last time, Al Gore narrowly carried voters 65 years and older. But in this month's poll, George Bush is running ahead with these seniors 51% to 45%, although the elderly subgroup in this poll is more Republican than usually is the case.

John Kerry is hammering away at Social Security and Medicare in the hopes of turning this around. But Mr. McInturff notes Mr. Bush has several plusses with these seniors. They agree with him more than his opponent on cultural issues like gay marriage, and have become decidedly more optimistic about the situation in Iraq. Still, he adds, "In swing states, seniors are very much up for grabs."

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PURPLE STATES: Are we headed for a redux of Florida 2000?

As of today, incredibly, it isn't implausible. Two Florida polls came out Wednesday, one showing President Bush ahead, the other showing Sen. Kerry up slightly. Each campaign maintains that its internal polling shows their candidate with a small advantage.

Both Republicans and Democrats are pouring unprecedented resources into the Sunshine State. Both did a better-than-usual job registering new voters, and both presidential and vice-presidential candidates are spending so much time in Florida they almost qualify as residents.

In short, all signs point to something like the 2000 Florida race, which, amid great controversy, George Bush officially won by 537 votes. Moreover, even before the election this time, there already are charges about voting irregularities and ballot problems.

Geoff Garin, a Democratic polltaker, sees the race in Florida basically "dead even." He suspects it will be decided by which side does a better job of getting out its base on Election Day. It is important, he says, for the Democrats to turn out the African-American vote in even bigger numbers than last time, when black voters made up an estimated 10% to 15% of the total. He also notes the importance of the senior vote in Florida, and says reports of Bush administration plans to partially privatize Social Security in a second term, and the controversial new Medicare prescription-drug plan, are plusses for the Democratic ticket.

Mr. McInturff agrees that the African-American turnout will be crucial -- "the difference between 9% and 12% could be enormous." He thinks that the Republicans have done as good a job in Florida as anywhere in reaching their base and likely will turn out their voters in suburban and rural strongholds.

Both parties agree that the Latino vote also is hugely important in Florida, where it is unique. Unlike many Hispanics, Cuban-Americans usually vote heavily Republican, something the Bush campaign is certainly counting on this time.

Sergio Bendixen, Miami-based pollster for the New Democrat Network, pegs the Hispanic vote in the state at 13%, with a little more than half of that Cuban-Americans. He suspects President Bush will do as well, perhaps a tad better, than last time, winning the Cuban-American vote by at least 3-to-1 and getting a third or more of other Hispanics. "[Florida Gov.] Jeb Bush has made tremendous gains for the Republicans in the Hispanic community," Mr. Bendixen, a Democrat, notes.

Of course, this comes against the backdrop of the historic controversy following the 2000 election in Florida. A Mason-Dixon poll of Floridians this week showed that almost one-third of voters in the state didn't think the balloting would proceed fairly, and only a little more than 40% were confident that their vote would be counted properly.

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SHORT TAKES: Some factoids from this week's Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll: More than half of African-Americans think eligible voters will be prevented from casting their ballots, while only about a third of whites hold this view. ...Young voters 18 to 34 years old oppose a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage by 48% to 44%, while seniors decisively favor it; it's strongly supported in the South and opposed in the Northeast, with the rest of the country split.