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Old 06-20-2005, 02:21 PM   #3
grndmstr_c
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Default RE: Predict next season's starting line and minutes per game

Harris - 18 mpg. I'm a bit less optimistic about his play next year than Nellie, but a consistent 18 sounds to me like it would strike the right balance between developmental concerns centered on Harris, and the requirement that the Mavs get solid minutes from their other, most likely somewhat more effective, backcourt players.

Josh - 32 mpg. I expect him to take the next step to being clearly the second best player on the team next year. He'll be indispensable enough that coach will want to keep him on the court more than this, but you don't want to wear your top guys out, either. Here again, 32 feels like a good compromise (actually, 34 seemed a bit better, but then I started thinking about the other 4 guys at the 1/2/3 and realized I needed to find some minutes somewhere).

Stack - 20 mpg. Getting tricky now. If Fin's ankle heals up and the old dog can rediscover some of his old form (I think he will) then Stack will again deservedly be behind Mike in the rotation. Don't think you can drop his minutes below 20, but with the depth the Mavs have it'll be hard to get them any higher than that.

Terry - 28 mpg. Terry will be better next year, and will deserve somewhere in the 34-36 mpg range, but with Harris needing (and getting) consistent minutes, and with the depth at the 2/3 undercutting the primary incentive to play the two of them together much, he'll be well rested when the playoffs roll around.

Fin - 26 mpg. I've hinted at it above: I expect a subtle sort of bounce-back year from Fin. The addition of some shooting in the frontcourt with KVH means Fin's jumper won't be quite as essential as it was most of last year, but I won't at all be suprised if he (again) sports the best +/- of the Mavs' SG's, and the minute distribution will reflect that.

Quis - 18 mpg. To get above this level I expect he'll have to not only get his jumper out to 18 feet more consistent, but will have to prove that he's an upgrade defensively over Fin/Stack as well, something he's yet to do. 05/06 will be kinder to him than last year, but I'm not sure he's quite ready to break out in a deep backcourt.

Dirk - 34 mpg. On the low side for Dirk, but with a backup like Keith the Mavs would be foolish not to take advantage of the situation to keep Dirk as fresh as possible.

Damp - 28 mpg.

KVH - 24 mpg. He'll see time behind and alongside Dirk. A few minutes here and there at SF.

??? - there's 12 minutes left if I count right (excluding injuries and the occasional OT game, of course). Some of the frontcourt distribution could depend on how well the Mavs manage to address the backup center spot - ie., if they manage to get a good player you could see KVH's minutes take a hit to make a little room for him. If the guy they get is a question mark then Dirk, Damp, and KVH all might see subtle increases in their pt.
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"He's coming off the bench aggressive right away, looking for his shot. If he has any daylight, we need him to shoot the ball. We know it's going in."
-Dirk Nowitzki on Jason Terry, after JET's 16 point 4th quarter against the Pacers.
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