[grndmstr_c]

foglemann, I tend to agree that teams that rely on threes as much as the Suns did this year don't do themselves a ton of favors. The reason falls right out of the fundamental laws of variability in samples from binomial distributions (binomial distributions describe the probability functions for either/or events such as flipping a coin or shooting a basket). Basically, it's pretty much unavoidable that you're going to go through more and longer cold-spells when you rely on low percentage shots like three pointers, which isn't a very good thing in a format like the playoffs. I'm not saying a team needs to take a ton of three point shots, though. I'm saying that teams need to be able to make a good percentage of the long jumpers they take.

Now, on the surface it may look like the Mavs are in good shape with their three point shooting. Dirk, JT, and Keith can all shoot it well, and Devin looks to have some potential in that regard. My problem, though, is that with the exception of Keith, who can only make it onto the floor for about 10 mpg in the playoffs in a traditional lineup, none of those guys are the one's who figure to be waiting in the corners for an open look. Dirk's going to be in the post or facing up from 15 feet much of the time, and Jason and Devin are going to have the ball in their hands a lot. It's really tremendously helpful to have a guy who can play off the ball who's ability to hit a good percentage from outside demands attention from the defense. Even if he's not shooting a ton of threes he's opening up the floor for the rest of the offense to run efficiently, and that's precisely what the Mavs are going to be missing if they waive Fin.

There are ways to get around it, of course. If Terry and/or Devin can learn to run a better pick-and-roll with Dirk that will put all of them in a better position to put pressure on the defense with their ability to hit the long ball. Likewise, if Marquis can show that the end of his rookie season was more than a tease and can handle more of the ball-handling duties, that could allow Terry and Harris to occasionally play more like SG's on the offensive end. The problem, of course, is that if those are our only two contingency plans we're basically relying on two things that didn't at all work out as hoped last year to all of a sudden start to work for us next year. It might happen, but those kinds of bets will break you more often than they'll make you.