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Old 07-01-2005, 01:00 PM   #54
grndmstr_c
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Default RE: Mavs in a no-lose situation with free agency this time

A few thoughts:

Mutombo - I'd just sort of assumed he'd want to return to Houston, but he'd be a great pickup. A frontcourt that already boasts Dirk, KVH, and Damp doesn't really need more than 15 mpg tops out of their backup center. Deke sure looked last year like he was more than capable of playing at a high level in that amount of on-court time.

Gad - Miles, I was surprised to not see his name mentioned in that article, as well. Then again, I think that was Sefko's list of potential additions rather than the Mavs' personal list. He's still my #1. I'd absolutely love to have him.

Andersen - Just some stats to consider on the guy. In Denver in 02/03, great rebound and block numbers, but horrible efg% (owing in large part to having no range whatsoever and taking too many jumpers), and a weak net +/- on a very bad team. In Denver in 03/04 the rebounding and block numbers were again excellent, the efg% was somewhat improved (thought still not close to where it should be for a big guy who plays that kind of game), and the net +/- was moderately improved on a team that was significantly better than it had been the year before. Last year, with NO, rebounds and blocks again look good, offensive efficiency climbed by almost 10 percentage points up to 53% (and this resulted from improvements in his scoring from range as well as in close), and the net +/- was tops on the team at +8.1, with all but two players on the Hornets' roster boasting a better on-court +/- when they shared the floor with him as compared to their average (compare he and PJ to PJ and Magloire, for example. The Hornets were -3.9 when PJ and Magloire shared time on the court; they were +3.3 when PJ and Andersen shared time on the court). The Hornets' offense worked better with him on the court, and the defense was vastly improved, as they allowed 6 fewer points with him on the court as compared to off, and cut their efg% allowed from over 50% down to 46.8%.

The point, basically, is that there's a very clear trend in the guy's numbers that show him progressing from an athletic energy guy who had absolutely no idea how to play winning basketball, to an energy guy who I think could be a nice contributor in 15+ mpg on a good team. All of that depends on what he's going to cost, though. I agree he's not worth the MLE. But if you can land him for somewhere around the LLE, thus leaving 3+ million of the MLE to perhaps throw at a waivee or a UFA or someone like Raja, or even to hold on to in case somebody worth bringing in gets cut midseason, I think the investment would be well worth it.

PJ Brown - I'd give up very little to get him. I'm just concerned he doesn't have much left in his tank, as his +/- over the last few years has been going in the wrong direction. Three years ago he would have been the a terrific 3rd guy in the frontcourt rotation, though.

SAR - I like him as a backup at both forward spots, but that's not what we need, and I'd think he's going to want to start somewhere.

Edit: Since Cliff Robinson's name came up while I was typing. I don't think he's all that good a player, anymore. Not really interested.
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