[Drbio]

With all due credit to Newberg....here is his daily report....


THE NEWBERG REPORT

On the day Texas traded for Alfonso Soriano, it snowed in Dallas. On the
day nearly two years later that Texas traded Soriano, it sleeted in Dallas.
The moment I heard the news last night, after a couple weeks of multiple
Ranger trades that had apparently dissolved at the doorstep, it felt like
one colossal thaw.

On Monday, buried in the middle of a long Newberg Report was the following
paragraph:

"ESPN's Jayson Stark writes that the Mets 'aren't in on' Soriano, and that
Minnesota and the Cubs are no longer interested. Washington, according to
Stark, is the team with the most interest in Soriano but lacks the pitching
that Texas wants. (If the Nationals offered outfielder Brad Wilkerson and
righthander Armando Galarraga, I'm interested.)"

So you might imagine how I felt when word spilled late Wednesday night that
Washington had agreed to trade exactly those two players, plus outfielder
Terrmel Sledge, to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal is contingent on the
players passing physicals.

This trade was possible only because Wilkerson had an off-year in 2005 due
to forearm and shoulder injuries -- he was virtually untouchable a year
earlier -- and because Jim Bowden was determined to make a splashy trade.
I'm still surprised that Texas was able to get the three players it got.

The Nationals are surely going to get only one season out of Soriano, who
won't be happy playing in the outfield as he's apparently slated to do (or
in the club's cavernous ballpark), and so one year from now we'll see
Washington offer him arbitration, see him decline it, and see the club
recover two picks in the first two rounds as a result. It's not hard to
imagine that what the Nationals will get will be the Yankees' first-round
pick in 2007 plus a supplemental pick between rounds one and two.

Wilkerson was a supplemental first-round pick himself in 1998, taken 33rd
overall by Montreal as compensation for the loss of catcher Darrin Fletcher
to Toronto. A two-way player at the University of Florida, he'd gone 26-11,
4.38 over his three Gator seasons, leading the club in starts as a junior,
and he hit .381 in his college career, with an OPS of at least 1.182 each
year. In 699 college at-bats, Wilkerson hit 55 home runs and drove in 214
runs, drawing 224 walks and striking out only 98 times. His on-base
percentage each year exceeded .500.

Has Wilkerson lived up to the potential he showed in college? Briefly. He
began his pro career in AA and reached the big leagues to stay in his third
season, and in 2004, his fourth major league season, he hit just .255 but
went deep 32 times and drew 106 walks. Dogged by the two injuries in 2005,
however, he saw his numbers dip from .255/.374/.498 to .248/.351/.405, and
his homers plummet from 32 to 11.

There are a great many things that Soriano does very well. There are a
couple he doesn't -- things that Wilkerson excels at. Wilkerson is an
excellent defender, capable of playing any of the three outfield spots and
first base. He's also a remarkably patient hitter, drawing at least 80
walks in each in of his four full big league seasons. Soriano has never
drawn half that many.

Consider this: Soriano hit 43 doubles and 36 home runs and drove in a
career-best 104 runs last season, and yet his on-base percentage was .309.
In an off-year (in a terrible hitters' park), Wilkerson reached base at a
.351 clip.

It's not hard to imagine Wilkerson's power reemerging in Ameriquest Field.
He definitely adds a dimension to the lineup as a hitter who will work
pitchers. He led off for the Nationals and might very well be asked to do
the same here. Oddly, he hit lefthanders (.296/.390/.414) far better in
2005 than he fared against righties (.228/.335/.402), which was a more
severe split than his career mark but in keeping with the left-handed
hitter's unusual tendency to hit better against southpaws -- which is
something that the Ranger lineup can use.

Bet this surprises you: Soriano's career OPS is .820. Wilkerson's is .817.


Wilkerson is a good baserunner, has a good arm, plays hard, plays smart.
While there are obvious differences, there's a little Rusty Greer in him.

Does Wilkerson figure in center field? (He's solid there but isn't a
sprinter.) Left? Right? Does he free Texas up to trade Kevin Mench for
pitching?

Is his physical going to be an issue?

Hope not.

Wilkerson earned $3.05 million in 2005 and has two more arbitration years
left, which puts him a year ahead of Mench in service time (and gives Texas
one more year of control than it had with Soriano). Wilkerson will probably
earn between $4 million and $5 million in 2006 -- half of what Soriano is
likely to earn.

Thinking ahead two years: Wilkerson is represented by Scott Boras.

Sledge missed most of the 2005 season due to hamstring surgery. A late
bloomer, he didn't reach the big leagues until 2004, when at age 27 he hit
15 homers and drove in 62 runs in just 398 at-bats (.269/.336/.462).

It could be that Sledge facilitates another trade as well. Rumors have
persisted since the summer that the Yankees covet Gary Matthews Jr., and
Sledge, who is three years younger than the arbitration-eligible Matthews,
could fit as a fourth outfielder (though his experience in center field is
limited) and free the Rangers up to move Matthews to New York. A
left-handed hitter like Wilkerson, Sledge historically hits righthanders
with more success than southpaws.

Sledge tested positive for steroids in October 2002, more than a year before
he reached the major leagues.

Galarraga is very intriguing. The 23-year-old entered the 2005 season
missing from Baseball America's ranking of Washington's top 30 prospects.
He finished it as the publication's number five Nationals prospect.

Signed as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela, the 6'4" righthander pitched for
two seasons with Montreal's Venezuelan Summer League entry before spending
the next three years (2001-03) toiling in the anonymity of the Gulf Coast
League, logging a total of just 53.1 innings due to 2002 Tommy John surgery.
His numbers were fairly ordinary in 2004, as he went 5-5, 4.65 for Low A
Savannah with no particularly eye-popping stats.

But in 2005, assigned to High A Potomac, Galarraga went 3-4, 2.48 in 14
starts, fanning 79 and walking 23 in 80 frames, and he earned a mid-season
berth in the Futures Game and a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he went
3-4, 5.19 in 13 starts, striking out 58 and issuing 21 walks in 76.1
innings. He works in the low-to-mid-90s with sink, complements his heat
with a power slider that Baseball America called the best in the Washington
system, and has a change-up that remains a work in progress. The
development of that third pitch, as with so many pitching prospects, could
determine whether he will eventually start or relieve. It's a safe bet that
he'll begin the season in Frisco's rotation.

Like Wilkerson and Sledge, Galarraga was on Washington's 40-man roster and
thus goes onto the Rangers' roster, which sits at 39 members.

What can I say about Soriano? He's a remarkably gifted offensive player
with every defensive tool but was erratic with the glove. He rarely worked
walks and occasionally gave bases away by admiring his laser shots for a
second or two before hitting full gear out of the box. I'm not convinced he
was ever going to sign with Texas long-term after the 2006 season, and I'm
also not convinced his numbers are going to look nearly as gaudy now that
he's not going to play half his games in Arlington.

Does Ian Kinsler step in as the Rangers' starting second baseman? At the
moment he does. But Texas isn't through making trades, as the addition of
Wilkerson and Sledge to the outfield picture sets up further movement -- as
does the reduction of payroll by virtue of moving Soriano. Could a
Mench-for-Orlando Hudson deal be in the works with Toronto (which,
incidentally, will attempt to get Texas to part with Wilkerson, according to
multiple stories this morning)? Could the dollars saved in the Soriano deal
be used to increase an offer to a free agent pitcher?

Could Roger Clemens, not offered arbitration by Houston by yesterday's
deadline, be that pitcher? Maybe he and Tom Hicks can find somewhere to
hang out together on, say, January 4.

It might be Matt Morris. Rumored earlier in the week to have offered three
years and $25 million to the righthander, Daniels told Kathleen O'Brien of
the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that the organization is preparing to make its
"last best offer" to Morris. Sounds like there might be a bump up
facilitated by the moving of Soriano.

Tony Jackson of the Los Angeles Daily News reports that the Dodgers want
Mench, and that in return Texas wants Jonathan Broxton (who was rumored
yesterday to be coming to the Rangers for Soriano).

The Rangers rejected the Cubs' offer of outfielder Corey Patterson for
Mench, according to Bruce Miles of the Chicago Daily Herald.

Texas didn't offer arbitration to Kenny Rogers or any of its other remaining
unsigned free agents (Sandy Alomar Jr., Doug Brocail, Richard Hidalgo, Steve
Karsay, Greg Colbrunn), meaning the club can't sign any of them to a big
league deal before May. The seventh potential free agent, righthander John
Wasdin, signed a $600,000 major league deal with the Rangers on Wednesday.

Interestingly, Boras told the Star-Telegram that Rogers's contract
prohibited the Rangers from offering him arbitration even if they wanted to.
As a result, the Rangers will not receive two compensatory picks in next
summer's draft from the team that signs Rogers. Boras has indicated that
Rogers, age 41, will get a three-year deal from some team, possibly Detroit,
San Diego, Cleveland, or St. Louis.

The Angels didn't offer arbitration to lefthander Jarrod Washburn. Wonder
if Boras secured the same no-arbitration clause in his contract.

Minnesota continues to show interest in Hank Blalock, write O'Brien and T.R.
Sullivan (who add that righthander Brett Tomko turned down a two-year offer
from Texas). La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggests
the Twins might offer lefthander J.C. Romero and righthander Scott Baker for
Blalock, and that a deal could be expanded to include Mench.

David Lennon of Newsday writes that the Mets and Rangers are discussing a
deal that would send righthander Kris Benson and his wife to Texas for
righthander Juan Dominguez and outfielder Laynce Nix. Not crazy about that
idea at all.

O'Brien and Sullivan suggest that the Rangers could make at least one
selection in the big league phase of this morning's Rule 5 Draft. Since the
40-man roster will be at 39 members once the Soriano trade is made official,
the club can only make one choice. (If the trade isn't announced before the
draft, I suppose Texas could make up to three choices, but multiple picks
are highly unlikely.)

Although it occurred too late to get into the Star-Telegram, Sullivan came
on the Newberg Report message board this morning and reported that Texas has
agreed to a trade with Kansas City, which owns the first pick in the draft.
Evidently, the Royals will make the first selection -- likely a pitcher --
and then immediately trade him to the Rangers for infielder Esteban German.
That would give Texas Rule 5 rights over the pitcher, giving the club spring
training to decide if he can make their big league staff. If he doesn't
stick, Texas has to put him through waivers and, if he clears, offer him
back to his 2005 club.

The pitcher could be White Sox lefthander Fabio Castro, projected by MLB.com
to be the top Rule 5 pick. The 20-year-old, who is listed at just 5'8", 155
and has never pitched above Class A, had a phenomenal finish to the 2005
season, his fourth as a pro. Pitching strictly in relief for High A
Winston-Salem, Castro posted an ERA of 1.35 over the final two months,
including 11 straight appearances without allowing an earned run to finish
the season. Overall, he went 5-5, 2.28 in 53 games, saving six of them,
scattering 58 hits (.209 opponents' average) and 37 walks in 79 innings
while fanning 75.

For his career, Castro has an ERA of 2.28, an opponents' batting average of
.190, and 10 strikeouts and under four walks per nine innings. He's allowed
only 13 home runs in 260.1 innings.

According to O'Brien and Sullivan, Texas could lose Drew Meyer in the draft
to San Diego, whose braintrust includes Grady Fuson.

I'm headed out to the Rule 5 Draft. More later today.