My issue with celebrating the new deficit numbers is that one, or even two data points do not give us enough information to declare a positive trend has emerged. That does not mean one will not emerge somewhere down the line, but rather such celebration is premature. Here is why I think premature celebration is potentially costly to Bush and the Republican party politically. First the benchmark deficit number (521 billion) stated by Bush in 2004 was overly pessimistic (by about 100 billion according to the article posted by Dude ... "The pledge to cut the deficit in half was based on the administration's forecast that the 2004 deficit would hit $521 billion, a figure that proved to be too pessimistic by more than $100 billion. However, the administration has continued to use the forecast number as its benchmark for deficit reduction."). So cutting the deficit in half has not really happened like Bush has suggested. This gives the appearance of this administration being a little sloppy with their economic assessments. Second, IF, as Mavdog suggests, the numbers start going in the opposite direction next year (an increase in the deficit), then you (Bush administration) again lose credibility as an economic forecaster. The last thing the Republican party needs is another tidbit for the media to grab a hold of and use to bash them over their heads in the '06 and '08 election cycles. Why not be a bit more cautious with your language and give a more accurate representation of what these numbers might mean at this point in time. There is some positive news here, just not as dramatic as the President seems to be suggesting.
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