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Mavdog · 02-19-2007, 05:42 PM

Obama reshaping Texas politics

In fast-moving race, black leaders must decide on choice early

06:54 AM CST on Monday, February 19, 2007
By GROMER JEFFERS JR. / The Dallas Morning News
gjeffers@dallasnews.com

Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk is usually deliberate, even cautious, about his endorsements.

But that was before Sen. Barack Obama emerged as a contender for the Democratic nomination for president. Mr. Kirk concedes that even he, as a seasoned politician, is caught up in Obamamania.

In Texas and elsewhere, the phenomenon is causing an early and unexpected split among the party's most loyal supporters: black voters.

"My decision is probably not about any political analysis or reason," Mr. Kirk said. "I am just an unashamed and unabashed believer in Barack Obama. It has everything to do with my personal exposure to him and belief in his intellect and his extraordinary political instincts."

Mr. Kirk's endorsement of Mr. Obama, so early in the fight for the presidency, signals a growing campaign within the campaign. Before Mr. Obama of Illinois entered the presidential contest, black voters were expected to favor the candidacy of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose husband, former President Bill Clinton, remains popular with the Democratic Party's most loyal base.

In Texas, leaders also were pondering whether to support John Edwards, the 2004 vice presidential nominee who has the most entrenched Lone Star campaign.

But now that Mr. Obama is seeking to become the country's first black president, he could take black voters away from Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and other candidates.

With the race for president already raging, black business and political leaders in Texas and across the country must decide soon whether to join Mr. Obama's historic effort or support Mrs. Clinton's bid to become the first woman elected president.

Early support could be vital – and thus rewarded by the winning candidate. If Texas moves its primary up next year to be a bigger player in the nominating process, as the Legislature is considering, movers and shakers in both parties could play an important role in ultimately choosing the Republican and Democratic hopefuls.

Mr. Kirk, the city's first black mayor and the 2002 Democratic nominee for Senate, understands the dynamic, adding that Mr. Obama has a Tiger Woods quality that makes him appealing to all ethnic groups.

"My support of Barack is not an indictment at all of Senator Clinton or Senator Edwards, both of whom I have supported and have the highest regards for," Mr. Kirk said. "But timing in politics can be everything, and there is something magical about Barack Obama that will stand beyond the excitement of the moment."

Other black leaders are not as enthusiastic – indeed, their experience leads them to be more pessimistic about Mr. Obama's chances.

"Those of us who understand politics realized that he can't win the nomination," said Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price, who hasn't decided whom to support yet. "It's early now, and people are excited. But he just won't have the resources and the money to compete with Hillary Clinton and the rest of the field. And don't forget: This is a nomination process with delegates. It's not an election, it's a nomination."

David Bositis, who studies the black electorate as a senior analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, agrees that Mr. Obama will have a challenge getting past Mrs. Clinton. After all, her husband was so popular with black America that some comedians dubbed him the country's first black president.

Voting bloc

"There's no guarantee Obama is going to get the African-American vote," Mr. Bositis said. "She's a Clinton, and last time I checked, the name Clinton was a big deal for African-Americans."

Black voters have become the Democratic Party's most reliable voting bloc and have powered the candidacy of various presidential contenders.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson and key members of his campaign influenced Democratic politics for years based on the civil-rights activist's two presidential runs. Much of his support came from blacks.

And while few thought Mr. Jackson could ever win the nomination, "it's a different dynamic with Obama than with Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton," said state Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston. "Obama would be the first candidate that is African-American that would be considered a mainstream candidate for president. He's supported by as many Anglos than African-Americans, maybe more."

Mr. Coleman, who is routinely a delegate to the convention that formally nominates the party's standard-bearer, said that the early jockeying is somewhat overheated because few voters have tuned in.

"The average black voter isn't paying attention," Mr. Coleman said. "Most voters aren't paying attention. Call me in the fall."

Texas sessions

Still, the candidates are lining up big-name supporters in important cities and states. Mr. Obama campaigned last weekend in South Carolina, which over the years has been the first state with a sizable black population to have a presidential primary. Mr. Obama's supporters will gather in a Dallas hotel tonight. The senator is scheduled to appear at the University of Texas in Austin on Friday.

Texas Democrats are still trying to figure out the state's place in the budding race, but Matt Angle, head of the Democratic Lone Star Project, said Mr. Obama's candidacy reshapes the political landscape.

"Clearly Barack Obama entering the race has a more dramatic effect on Hillary Clinton than John Edwards, not just with black supporters, but also with progressive Anglos," Mr. Angle said. "There are those who have questions about Clinton's viability to win the election. Barack Obama gives them another place to go."

But the battle-hardened organization that will push Mrs. Clinton gives her the edge, some analysts say.

"Hillary's got the advantage, the money and the resources," said Kelly Fero, an Austin-based consultant. "The expectations around Obama are so high. I don't see Jesus Christ meeting those expectations."

Dallas developer David Willis, a frequent donor to political candidates and causes, is supporting Mrs. Clinton.

"Hillary Clinton is the better of the two candidates," said Mr. Willis, who is black. "It takes more than a one-termer in the Senate to run the United States of America. I want to put my money behind the candidate who is best for the people."

Other factors could determine how much black support Mr. Obama takes from Mrs. Clinton.

Throughout his career, Mr. Obama – whose mother was white and father was black – has battled complaints from black peers that his message is too vanilla and his persona too white. Others have said his problem is less race and more ideology; they say he's too liberal to be elected president.

In 2000, he lost a congressional race to Rep. Bobby Rush, a former Black Panther.

Whatever his past, his candidacy is inspiring many to volunteer and support him. His election to the Senate and his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention made him a star. After his convention speech, Mrs. Clinton introduced him at various political caucuses as the man of the hour.

Mr. Kirk said even his teenage daughters and their friends are fans. "I bring up Barack Obama, I might as well say I'm bringing Justin Timberlake over," Mr. Kirk said. "It's incredible how excited they are about him."

FACTORS AFFECTING VOTER SUPPORT

The Gallup/USA TODAY poll recently asked whether respondents would vote for their party's nominee if he or she were of a certain race, religion or age. The results:

94% would vote for a black candidate (5% would not)

87% would vote for a Hispanic hopeful (12% would not)

88% would vote for a woman (11% would not)

92% would vote for a Jewish candidate (7% would not)

95% would vote for a Catholic candidate (4% would not)

72% would vote for a Mormon (24% would not)

45% would vote for an atheist (53% would not)

57% would vote for a 72-year-old (42% would not)

55% would vote for a gay candidate (43% would not)

02-19-2007, 05:42 PM	#219
Mavdog Diamond Member Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Texas Posts: 6,014	Obama reshaping Texas politics In fast-moving race, black leaders must decide on choice early 06:54 AM CST on Monday, February 19, 2007 By GROMER JEFFERS JR. / The Dallas Morning News gjeffers@dallasnews.com Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk is usually deliberate, even cautious, about his endorsements. But that was before Sen. Barack Obama emerged as a contender for the Democratic nomination for president. Mr. Kirk concedes that even he, as a seasoned politician, is caught up in Obamamania. In Texas and elsewhere, the phenomenon is causing an early and unexpected split among the party's most loyal supporters: black voters. "My decision is probably not about any political analysis or reason," Mr. Kirk said. "I am just an unashamed and unabashed believer in Barack Obama. It has everything to do with my personal exposure to him and belief in his intellect and his extraordinary political instincts." Mr. Kirk's endorsement of Mr. Obama, so early in the fight for the presidency, signals a growing campaign within the campaign. Before Mr. Obama of Illinois entered the presidential contest, black voters were expected to favor the candidacy of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose husband, former President Bill Clinton, remains popular with the Democratic Party's most loyal base. In Texas, leaders also were pondering whether to support John Edwards, the 2004 vice presidential nominee who has the most entrenched Lone Star campaign. But now that Mr. Obama is seeking to become the country's first black president, he could take black voters away from Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and other candidates. With the race for president already raging, black business and political leaders in Texas and across the country must decide soon whether to join Mr. Obama's historic effort or support Mrs. Clinton's bid to become the first woman elected president. Early support could be vital – and thus rewarded by the winning candidate. If Texas moves its primary up next year to be a bigger player in the nominating process, as the Legislature is considering, movers and shakers in both parties could play an important role in ultimately choosing the Republican and Democratic hopefuls. Mr. Kirk, the city's first black mayor and the 2002 Democratic nominee for Senate, understands the dynamic, adding that Mr. Obama has a Tiger Woods quality that makes him appealing to all ethnic groups. "My support of Barack is not an indictment at all of Senator Clinton or Senator Edwards, both of whom I have supported and have the highest regards for," Mr. Kirk said. "But timing in politics can be everything, and there is something magical about Barack Obama that will stand beyond the excitement of the moment." Other black leaders are not as enthusiastic – indeed, their experience leads them to be more pessimistic about Mr. Obama's chances. "Those of us who understand politics realized that he can't win the nomination," said Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price, who hasn't decided whom to support yet. "It's early now, and people are excited. But he just won't have the resources and the money to compete with Hillary Clinton and the rest of the field. And don't forget: This is a nomination process with delegates. It's not an election, it's a nomination." David Bositis, who studies the black electorate as a senior analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, agrees that Mr. Obama will have a challenge getting past Mrs. Clinton. After all, her husband was so popular with black America that some comedians dubbed him the country's first black president. Voting bloc "There's no guarantee Obama is going to get the African-American vote," Mr. Bositis said. "She's a Clinton, and last time I checked, the name Clinton was a big deal for African-Americans." Black voters have become the Democratic Party's most reliable voting bloc and have powered the candidacy of various presidential contenders. The Rev. Jesse Jackson and key members of his campaign influenced Democratic politics for years based on the civil-rights activist's two presidential runs. Much of his support came from blacks. And while few thought Mr. Jackson could ever win the nomination, "it's a different dynamic with Obama than with Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton," said state Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston. "Obama would be the first candidate that is African-American that would be considered a mainstream candidate for president. He's supported by as many Anglos than African-Americans, maybe more." Mr. Coleman, who is routinely a delegate to the convention that formally nominates the party's standard-bearer, said that the early jockeying is somewhat overheated because few voters have tuned in. "The average black voter isn't paying attention," Mr. Coleman said. "Most voters aren't paying attention. Call me in the fall." Texas sessions Still, the candidates are lining up big-name supporters in important cities and states. Mr. Obama campaigned last weekend in South Carolina, which over the years has been the first state with a sizable black population to have a presidential primary. Mr. Obama's supporters will gather in a Dallas hotel tonight. The senator is scheduled to appear at the University of Texas in Austin on Friday. Texas Democrats are still trying to figure out the state's place in the budding race, but Matt Angle, head of the Democratic Lone Star Project, said Mr. Obama's candidacy reshapes the political landscape. "Clearly Barack Obama entering the race has a more dramatic effect on Hillary Clinton than John Edwards, not just with black supporters, but also with progressive Anglos," Mr. Angle said. "There are those who have questions about Clinton's viability to win the election. Barack Obama gives them another place to go." But the battle-hardened organization that will push Mrs. Clinton gives her the edge, some analysts say. "Hillary's got the advantage, the money and the resources," said Kelly Fero, an Austin-based consultant. "The expectations around Obama are so high. I don't see Jesus Christ meeting those expectations." Dallas developer David Willis, a frequent donor to political candidates and causes, is supporting Mrs. Clinton. "Hillary Clinton is the better of the two candidates," said Mr. Willis, who is black. "It takes more than a one-termer in the Senate to run the United States of America. I want to put my money behind the candidate who is best for the people." Other factors could determine how much black support Mr. Obama takes from Mrs. Clinton. Throughout his career, Mr. Obama – whose mother was white and father was black – has battled complaints from black peers that his message is too vanilla and his persona too white. Others have said his problem is less race and more ideology; they say he's too liberal to be elected president. In 2000, he lost a congressional race to Rep. Bobby Rush, a former Black Panther. Whatever his past, his candidacy is inspiring many to volunteer and support him. His election to the Senate and his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention made him a star. After his convention speech, Mrs. Clinton introduced him at various political caucuses as the man of the hour. Mr. Kirk said even his teenage daughters and their friends are fans. "I bring up Barack Obama, I might as well say I'm bringing Justin Timberlake over," Mr. Kirk said. "It's incredible how excited they are about him." FACTORS AFFECTING VOTER SUPPORT The Gallup/USA TODAY poll recently asked whether respondents would vote for their party's nominee if he or she were of a certain race, religion or age. The results: 94% would vote for a black candidate (5% would not) 87% would vote for a Hispanic hopeful (12% would not) 88% would vote for a woman (11% would not) 92% would vote for a Jewish candidate (7% would not) 95% would vote for a Catholic candidate (4% would not) 72% would vote for a Mormon (24% would not) 45% would vote for an atheist (53% would not) 57% would vote for a 72-year-old (42% would not) 55% would vote for a gay candidate (43% would not)