[G-Man]

In many of these "play down to the level" games, it seems the Mavs surge to a huge lead, then relax and lose it and have to come back strong to win. While I'd rather see them put teams away, even the mediocre teams have great players who can fill it up if the defense relaxes even a little. Guys like Arena and Paul Pierce and Starbury are a threat to erase a 12 point lead with just 4 shots. And when they play the Mavs, they rarely throw in the towel until there is not enough time left for a comeback.

The good thing about this is its put the Mavs into more 4th quarter situations where they need to execute. The Suns players are yucking it up on the bench with their big blowouts, while the Mavs are still working at the end of games. Sometimes I wonder if Avery doesn't prefer it this way, so his team gets more experience executing in close game situations. To my mind, thats more valuable than a few minutes extra rest.

The bottom line here is that in many of these situations, the Suns and Spurs lost games, while almost every time, the Mavs found a way to win. And when the playoffs start, there will not be many blowouts. It will all come down to 4th quarter execution. The ability to hold leads, lose leads and come back, stick around and surge ahead at the end are all skills that will come in handy in May and June. The Mavs have a lot of practice at all these. And think about it, even in Atlanta, when that team and its fans think they have a chance to beat the Mavs, its instant playoff atmosphere. Avery can't simulate that in practice. So in 4th quarters, he's drawing up in bounds plays, and teammates are learning to trust each other.

I'll bet that turns out to be far better preparation for the playoffs than smiling on the bench with a 20 point lead.

Of course, it doesn't fit Hollinger's belief that margin of victory is the best predictor of future wins. Well, we've been through an entire season with his power rankings. If his theory was sound, by now, the Spurs should have won more games than the Mavs. His system has utterly failed to predict future wins this season. The Mavs just went 9-1, while the Spurs did 7-3, yet their lead in his system is bigger than ever. . The system may be good for something. but as far as predicting future wins, it just ain't working.