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Old 04-07-2007, 08:08 AM   #22
Dr.Zoidberg
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Gray may be right about Al Gore and the movie, but as I haven´t seen the movie yet, I don´t want to comment about.

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Rather than global warming, Gray believes a recent uptick in strong hurricanes is part of a multi-decade trend of alternating busy and slow periods related to ocean circulation patterns. Contrary to mainstream thinking, Gray believes ocean temperatures are going to drop in the next five to 10 years.
This doesn´t go against the mainstream as you can see in my former post about hurricanes:
Quote:
Atlantic cold phases/warm phases

The so-called cold and warm phases in the North Atlantic are part of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The mechanism behind it is a large-scale water flow conveyer belt in the ocean with periodically enhanced or reduced activity resulting in unusually warm or unusually cool surface waters in parts of the ocean. This overturning circulation, which is driven by water temperatures and water salinities, is called the thermohaline circulation.

Natural climate oscillation

Natural climate oscillations can be differentiated by the respective time scales. They are not driven by external influences on the earth's climate system, such as changes in solar irradiance or anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Examples of natural climate oscillations are the El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation events (interdecadal time scale), the North Atlantic Oscillation (quasi-decadal Oscillation) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (multidecadal time scale).
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A general increase in frequency is observed in the North Atlantic since 1970, that means from a comparatively cool period to the current "warm phase" in terms of sea surface temperatures (Fig. 3). Accordingly, the hurricane season of 2005 has set an absolute record in terms of the number of named tropical storms (27, old record 21) and hurricanes (15, old record 12).
As we are in a "warm phase" now, it wouldn´t surprise any scientist, if the oceans will get colder in the next years, but:
Quote:
If further research findings of recent years are taken into account (Goldenberg (2001), Science; Trenberth (2005), Science), the result for the North Atlantic is such that cyclone activity is determined there both by a natural climate oscillation and by a superimposed linear warming process — most probably not explainable without anthropogenic global warming.
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Besides increasing the intensity of storms in the North Atlantic, warm phases like the one we are currently experiencing also generate more frequent hurricanes, whereas cold phases have the opposite effect. This alternation between warm and cold phases has now been supplemented by a new effect: the overall rise in temperature.

Intensity and frequency of hurricanes increases

The cold phases are not as cold as they used to be and the warm phases are getting hotter. 2005 made history with the highest value since 1880. Between July and September 2005, positive sea surface temperature anomalies of up to 2°C were registered in some parts of the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean, with average readings for.

January to November 2005 reaching record levels at several points on the map. Since the intensity and frequency of hurricanes increases with sea surface temperatures, the average number per year has also risen: from 2.6 to 4.1 hurricanes (Categories 3–5) between the last warm period and this one — an increase of around 60%.

A study by the Scripps Institute in 2005 reveals that the cause of this general warming is probably climate change, which, in turn, is due to human factors.
So I can´t find a statement by Gray, which speaks against a trend of increasing hurricanes, caused by global warming.

With his opinion to be "against the theorie that heat-trapping gases generated by human activity are causing the world to warm", he is in clearly minority. And as we often discussed before, this neither is a reason that his opinion isn´t right nor it is, although there are definitely more scientific data at the moment which affirm the man made global warming. So same old strory and nothing new in this article.
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