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Originally Posted by Knickfan
You stole my thunder prodigy, that's exactly what I was going to say. Ginobli is the same thing. He gets contact so much his body is even breaking down already and he will NOT be as active as he is now in a few years.
I know one of the advantages to Dirk's game is that he has the ABILITY to go by you but realistically how often does Dirk do that? He can and the fact that he CAN will always be a threat but the reality is Dirk is just a DEADLY shooter and being 7'0 tall you can't put someone as big on him because regardless of how old Dirk gets, he has the ability to put it on the floor. There is NO big man in the game who has the quickness to keep up with that and there won't be for a while. The ONLY one that might be quick enough is Oden and if Oden is who I have to worry about stopping Dirk, I'll take my chances with Dirk.
Yes the Mavs do have large salaries but really there are only two salaries they have to worry about and that's Damp and Terry and after next year (neither of which I personally care for) but they're salaries won't be so terrible that they will be untradeable.
My point is Dallas is NOT in such a terrible situation. Like I said, the Spurs still have a run in them but I think they have ONE more at the most with this nucleus. Now if they rebuild, that's a different story but they're NOT going to overhaul that team and be in contentions the very next year. As great as TD is, I just can't see that happening.
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You're right about Ginobili. He is not the type of player who will be able to age gracefully. His contract ends after the 09-10 season and when that time comes I think he'll pretty much be at the point where he's fixing to hit a really steep decline. He might be able to squeeze out a couple more years after that in a greatly dimished capacity, but for all practical purposes the Spurs will need to replace what he gives them within the next 5 years.
As for Dirk, yeah he's got that quickness now, but once that quickness starts to go more and more bigs will be able to keep up with him. That diminishes that threat of him driving by them and allows bigs to crowd his shot. Suddenly Dirk is taking more contested shots and that shooting percentage drops. We're still several years away from that occuring though, but that's exactly how age is going to catch up to Dirk.