[FINtastic]

Originally Posted by DLord

I didn't write it, but I'll take that bet (provided Miami doesn't sign him to an extension first and he doesn't get a major injury).




I'll take your bet too (provided Miami doesn't sign him to an extension first and he doesn't get a major injury).




And I'll take yours as well.



If I missed anyone, my apologies. But step right up, I'll take your money too!!



GENTLEMAN, I'll wager all of you very intelligent observers that, provided Marion doesn't get signed to an extension first and doesn't get a major injury, he'll opt out to be a free agent in July 2008. And he'll get a rich payday for doing so.

In fact, in MY opinion (as insane as kg_vet thinks I must be!), I think it's pretty much a certainty.

And now I'll tell you all the reasons why I am so certain.

First of all, star players always get paid. Borderline talents may languish on the market, but stars always get their money, and under almost any criteria you can name, Marion plays at a star level. If he's on the market, we can rest assured he'll get paid.

Saying "no one has that much cap room" is both naive and irrelevant. Teams are angling for cap room as we speak, and by the time it's all said and done and we get to July, a team or teams will have found a way to have cap room to be able to get one of the premium talents available. Marion qualifies, and he has the star's assurance that if Miami doesn't get him a payday by either a new contract with them or by sign-and-trade, someone else will.

Second, Marion is at the prime opt out age. He'll be 30 this year, and every year he waits to hit free agency is one year closer to that looming date when he encounters that "I've fallen and I can't get up" moment in his career and it's too late to get a payday. If you're a 30ish player and have a choice between locking in a long-term deal this summer, or waiting another year to do it with the chance something may go wrong in the interim, you do it now.

Third, players don't look at contracts like we do. We focus on the annual pay. "He's getting $17M. Who will pay more?" we ask. But players look at it much differently. Instead of the annual averages, they look at the Total Guaranteed Money they'll get, since they'll get it all no matter what. To Marion, if he knows he can swap a guarantee of $17M for a guarantee of $50-60M, or maybe even more, it's a RAISE, and there will be absolutely no hesitation to opt out - even if in the 2008-09 season he might be getting $13-14M in a new 4-6 year deal instead of the $17M he would have gotten in the remaining year of his prior deal. The annual payout is just minor details - it's the total that matters.

Further, while we think players must be stupid to entertain the idea of forfeiting $17M this year for (for example) only $13M this year and $65M over 5 years, when you consider how many contracts these days get bought out early, and how many players retire early with pay (like Bradley), then aren't they maybe more insightful than we are in focusing on the Total Guarantee over the annual average?

Fourth, NBA history shows us guys at this point opt out, even when we think they are paid more than they can possibly get by opting out. In the summer of 2005 Shaq opted out of a final year at $30M. That's dumb, no one could pay that much in free agency, we said. And we were right. He had to settle for 5 yrs at only $20M per year, a "sacrifice" we were told. But how correct does that decision look NOW for him, as he is getting more at that "reduced' rate for his current play than he could ever still hope to garner on the open market now. Right now it looks like he's been worth 30 (the original contract), 20, 15 (this season), and 2 more questionable years ahead. If he was a free agent now, would he command another $35M for those remaining 2 years? Of course not.

Last summer Vince Carter was in a similar boat. One more season at max money, or opt out into a free agent market where "no one can pay him." He opted out. And he got paid royally.

GENTLEMAN, stars get paid. Marion wants his big payday. He will opt out (unless Miami gives him a major extension or unless he gets hurt in the interim.) And if I have to be labeled insane to say that, so be it.

Put your money on the table. I'll take it. My baby needs new shoes.

DL

I can take your point Mr. Lord. Maybe Marion would have opted out. I probably should have put all of what I was thinking though. Even if he does opt out, he's not going to another team for comparable money. Most teams don't have 13-14 mil a year to spend, and if they do, they aren't looking to spend it on a SF like Marion, especially one who everyone seems to think is great because he plays with Steve Nash. Teams don't spend their money on a small forward at Marion's age who isn't considered a top 15 player and does not put up sexy scoring numbers. They might spend on a point guard or center, but not a small forward. Teams might be angling for cap room, but it's not for the Shawn Marion's of the world. Most of the teams with the max-money cap room are looking to rebuild, and for all he brings to the table, you don't really rebuild around Shawn Marion.

The only case I can think of in recent memory where a player near Marions level got signed away by another team for near-max money was Rashard Lewis. So unless Phoenix was going to completely lowball him, they would still have a pretty good shot at retaining his services. But maybe Phoenix was going to lowball him (they do have a reputation of doing that) so that's why they made the move.