[Dr.Zoidberg]

Suns Set?
We Play Contrarian On Phx' 'Spending Spree'
By David Lord -- DB.com

I'm hearing animated discussions by fans about how the Suns are aggressively spending money right and left, adding Shaq and considering adding Artest, and so on, and I just don't buy any of it. As an NBA Matchup of the Week looms with the Mavs’ Valentine’s Day visit on Thursday to Phoenix, it’s a good time to detail what I see evolving in the Arizona desert. Let’s start with some general truths and history and work from there to get to the bottom of what the Phoenix Suns are all about – and to prove my thesis that while "anything is possible," I don't believe the Artest-to-Phoenix concept has any substance behind it. It looks to me like nothing more than “sexy’’ speculation gone wild at this point.


THE HISTORY: THE SUNS, THE TAX, AND THIS SEASON'S MOVES

1. We all know that the Suns have historically fled from the tax, even though their profits are tops in the NBA.

2. What some may not realize is that nothing has changed on that front. They are only paying tax reluctantly this season, because they were so far over the tax line heading into this season that it was impossible to get their payroll below the tax line. They had commitments for about $10M too much, with no expectation they could erase it.

3. In the summer they came to the realization they would have to pay tax, and tried to spin it into a positive by telling their fans, "It's a new day. Now we are willing to pay tax to win a title."

4. But soon thereafter they found a way to get Kurt Thomas's contract off the payroll instantly. That mythical "willingness to pay tax for a title" was exposed as whoosh their best defensive big man was gone in a flash - and they even tossed in two No. 1s to grease the deal.

5. All evidence still points in the same direction: they are only willing to pay tax if they have no choice. And that's important to remember because using their Trade Exception is a choice, and it adds both payroll and tax.

6. Many fail to recognize that the Shaq deal LOWERS their payroll (and potential tax) both this season and next. Keep your eye on the ball: while it has the appearance of being a talent move, it might be the money that drove this deal just as much.

7. League rules REQUIRE them to add one more player. That's why they are still looking.

THE CURRENT SITUATION: WHAT MIGHT THEY TRY TO DO?

When the Suns say they are looking for a "defender" I suspect that is code-speak that admits that in any deal, the cheapest and most readily available type players possible are likely to be defensive types with limited scoring aptitude.

Right now, after the KThomas and Shaq moves, they are getting within sniffing distance of "tax-free" and the $2-3M welfare check that the league gives to teams who avoid tax. (I can see Sarver-the-money-chasing-pig smelling it, sniffing sniffing "I smell free money!" and desperately rooting around looking for a way to get to it.) They're now only about $1.6M over, and the cheapest player to fill that final roster slot would cost them an added ~$150K, making them a $1.75M reduction away from that pile of luscious green moolah.

In that context, simply using the TE to add a player in trade takes them in the wrong direction financially. While you can't rule that out for certain, their behavior pattern tells us the most likely way that TE will be used (from most likely to least) is (a) not at all, (b) for a very inexpensive player, (c) for a decent player who costs them payroll on an expiring contract, (d) for a player on a continuing contract who is fairly expensive. Artest is in category C which I find not likely at all, for all the reasons stated above.

So what might they do instead? Could they be headed that direction instead? Maybe so.

One way I can see for them to get under the tax line would be to swap Diaw's $9M contract for one or two players that add up to less, using the 25% cushion in trades. Another team could take him and only send them $7.12M in return. If they trade Diaw for 2 players totaling between $7.12 and $7.4M, or one player totaling between $7.12 and $7.25M (leaving them a $150K cushion to pick up a rookie free agent for that final slot), they'll avoid tax.

So what about Artest? Unfortunately for them, Artest's $7.4M salary doesn't quite fit in that window, though he's close. But from the Kings' side, it is problematic in other ways besides the fact it doesn't quite solve Phx's tax problem. Unless the Kings are offered something pretty desirable (and I don't put Diaw at $9M per year in that group, but others may), then they are more likely to keep their group together and see if they can't somehow sneak into a playoff slot. In addition, if they want to give away Artest to someone with a TE, the Warriors also have a sizable one, meaning the Kings would have multiple options to drive up the bidding if they wanted to go that direction.

How about other teams then? In general, a hangup in the Diaw-for-cheaper angle is that while Phx would be reducing taxable payroll that way, the other team is adding it, and that can be more of a deal-killer than we fans realize. That wouldn't be a major problem with Sac who still has a bit or cushion under this year's tax line, but it does with other alternatives. For example, I'd could envision the idea of Diaw's offense going to the offensively challenged Cavs, where Phx got back the much cheaper (and "defensive oriented") Eric Snow in some sort of 2-for-2, but with Cleveland already in taxpaying territory, that would take a big gulp for the Cavs to add even more tax. So, I can't see it happening.

We also have to note that while Diaw at $9M would probably be considered "overpaid" to most teams, he would come closest to being worth that contract in Phoenix. His jack-of-all-trades game allows them to use him in a variety of ways. The one problem they have with him, however, is that his best production for the Suns came when Stoudemire was hurt and he was used as a finesse post player befuddling the giants guarding him. With Shaq being added, there will be even less opportunity for him to play in the post.

From a feasibility-of-use standpoint elsewhere, Diaw might fit best with teams wanting to use that open-post style that Phoenix has run, such as Toronto, Golden State, Washington, Memphis, and so on. Of those teams, it's noteworthy that Golden State also has a big TE, and an ongoing need for big men/post players who can score and pass, making for all kinds of possibilities if Diaw was dangled and the Warriors saw him as being a fit for them. Diaw for Pietrus and Barnes, perhaps?

Or how about one other team, one where he doesn't seem to fit but still might work as a trade possibility. Doesn't this sound like a NY Knicks kinda opportunity? It would take some mix-and-match contracts, and maybe it ends up some kind of 2-for-2 with Piatkowski added on Phx's end, but I can see the Knicks trying to cooperate with their main offer being one of the following: Malik Rose, Jerome James, J Jeffries. What use would the Knicks have for Diaw? I have no earthly idea, but since when did that stop them from adding an overpriced player in the past????

If the Suns don't use Diaw in trade to shed some payroll, then perhaps they could find a team to take Piatkowski's contract off their hands. Replacing his 1.2M cap charge with the cheapest costing 0.15M doesn't fully get them there, but it gets them close. The Suns could find a team with enough cap room (or a TE big enough and some tax-free room), then send him (and $400K to pay the rest of his salary) along with a draft pick from the Suns for their help. For the other team, they'd get a pick for free, essentially. Memphis or Charlotte have enough cap room to do something like that for some team, and it's probably available to the highest bidder.

Is there another angle that yields enough space to matter? Raja Bell would probably bring them offers, but his contract isn't big enough where the potential 25% cushion he could offer could alone save them all the payroll to get below the tax line. And you have to think they need him even more now than before, with Marion out of the picture.

We can all play around with the numbers, but I have to think those kinds of ideas, rather than adding Artest in a huge tax-increasing move using a TE, are what the Suns are really trying to do. And when all is said and done, we may see nothing splashier than some D-leaguer or cheap vet added to fill that last slot, and nothing more.

We’ll have a look at how Shaq’s Suns play come Thursday. We'll have the final answer to the Puzzle in the Desert as it regards what Phoenix ownership really thinks and really wants by Feb. 21.

145pm feb 10 2008

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