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Originally Posted by DubOverdose
I said I was serious because I saw other predictions and I disagree with them. I haven't seen anything from Kidd to expect him to have a good season.
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You do at least realize you're predicting a rather precipitous and, for Kidd at least, unprecedented decline in his productivity. In fact, if we restrict ourselves to looking at assist and rebound per minute numbers, the last two seasons have been the best of his career (his career high for rpm came two years ago and last year was his second best by that measure; his career best for apm was last year as well).
With the scoring numbers there is some reason to expect a drop-off, but even then a pessimistic interpretation of his career trajectory predicts just over 10 points per 34 minutes. Likewise for his true shooting percentage which figures to at least hover around the 50% mark. Not that that's good, or anything, but relative to his career standard its certainly not what you'd call a major drop-off (for reference he's been above the 50% mark in ts% in only 7 out of his 14 years in the league).
*I'm basing these lower ppm and ts% estimates on a quadratic regression, for those who care; in my own predictions I used a more optimistic linear model.