[Janett_Reno]

The polls and race begin tonight. The first debate and i do feel the debates will be important and especially in a close race like this. Something else important that McCain and Obama hasn't been involved in at all but it looks as if they are going to bring them in on, is this wall street bail out. Both men know they have to be on the right side or they both will vote and support or oppose the same final bill.

This is a huge mess and 700 billon is not chump change. It's a mess and it matters.

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This is part of the "unlikely" i have been talking about with also minority and young people votting like never before. When i mention the word minority, this doesn't mean just african american. It means others. You can look at the numbers in some of these states.

1. Nevada: Dems Take Registration Lead From GOP.

In this state, Registered Dems lead registered Republicans, 565,855 to 489,802. -- a lead of 76,053.

That's a turnaround from 2004, where Republicans narrowly led Dems, 434,239 to 429,808. Since then, Dems increased by 136,047, while Republicans only increased by 55,563.

Does this matter? Yes but the reps didn't have a big lead and the dems do not have a big lead but in a close race it can matter. Casino building and construction has came to a halt. People have stopped in the midde of building and just sitting there. Nv has been hit hard and it will hurt having Cheney and W on your side but also McCain is not far from Nv and this could possibly help and Palin in the west could be a boost. This state matters.

2. Florida: Dem Lead Edges Up.

Registered Dems lead registered Republicans, 4,453,008 to 3,954,884 -- a lead of 498,124. In 2004, Dems led by a slightly smaller amount, 4,322,376 to 3,954,492. Since then, Dems increased their registration by 130,632, while the GOP only increased by 392.

This state matters. It's a must for McCain. The Clintons must be a big part of FL to help Obama win. I won't go into the details but this state is close. Voter turn out will be important in this state, seniors and the young people are both important for both sides.

3. Pennsylvania: Dem Lead Jumps Significantly.

Registered Dems lead registered Republicans, 4,336,224 to 3,199,837 -- a large lead of 1,136,387. That's a significant jump from 2004, when Dems led Republicans by less than half as much, 3,985,486 to 3,405,278, Since then Dem registration has jumped a surprising 350,738, while GOP registration has plummeted by 205,441.


This is a state where reps are trying to take over and move more reps into. If you go look at w/Gore, W/Kerry this state is always close even though it is more dems. This state would be very important for reps to break thru now and later. It is alot of Clinton backers in this state, just like Fl. I feel Obama wins Pa and he must but again Biden and Clintons help him here.

4. North Carolina: Dem Lead Increases.

In this reliably red state, Dems lead the GOP by 2,714,656 to 1,952,013 -- a lead of 762,643. That's an increase in the Dem lead from 2004, when Dems led 2,582,462 to 1,903,119. Since then, Dem registration has jumped 132,194 while GOP registration has only risen 48,894.

This isn't good for the reps and they actually need this state as this starts to come into the south. This state can and probably will be close. Where reps want pa forever and dems need to hold, this state is also for reps to hold now and in the future because then the dems inch down a lil more getting towards the south. This state is huge if Obama breaks thru and i am not saying he will but he very well could. I also say if he wins NC and it's 15ev's then McCain will lose. Polls i think show Mac up 2 points or so now.

5. Colorado: Dems Wipe Away Most Of GOP's Advantage.

In this state, which may prove pivotal, Dems have wiped away a once-lopsided GOP advantage, with GOP registration now leading the Dems, 1,029,062 to 955,428 -- a lead of 73,634. That lead is a significant drop from 2004, when the GOP led Dems by 1,118,597 to 942,025, a lead of 176,572. The shift was fueled by the fact that since then the number of registered GOPers has dropped by 89,535, while Dem registration has gone up 13,403.

Reps still have a lead but much closer. This state is important and Obama is up now.

6. New Mexico: The Dems' Sizable Advantage Edges Up.

In this state, registered Dems lead GOPers by 563,103 to 360,513 -- a lead of 202,590.
That's a very slight improvement since 2004, when Dems led the GOP by 534,794 to 339,926. Dem registration went up 28,309, while the GOP increased slightly less, 20,587.

Obama should win here and this is a pick up from Kerry. Ia is also.

7. New Hampshire: GOP Lead Shrinks To Almost Nothing.

In this independent-heavy state, the GOP has a very slight edge over the Dems, 268,108 to 263,217 -- a lead of 4,891. That lead is down from 38,004 in 2004, when the GOP led Dems by 266,770 to 228,766. Since then Dem registration has jumped 34,451, while GOP registration has gone up only 1,338.

This state has 4 ev's and no that isn't much but it can mean the difference if Obama paints all the north east blue or Mac slips in a red state. Mac might have an outside shot at me also. Obama is only up 1 in nh. You never know in a race this close when you might need 4ev's. This state should be very close. It's worth saying also independents new that has registered has gone up in the above states for independents as well. Other key states is Va and i predict if Obama breaks thru Va he wins and Va is 13ev's. Oh, MN and i feel this state is important for the dems to hold. Nm and Or and i predict Obama has won both of these.

One state that is never mentioned and they take it for granted, McCain has won it and it is Mo. Mac's lead was 5 and now down to 2 and this isn't considered a battleground state. Mac can't lose this state because it is over if he does and Party affiliation is not required for voters to register in Missouri. You could be in for a shock right here on what i am hearing. 11 ev's. Someone going door to door in Mo mentions and this is people they are registering, 60% are voting Obama, 20% undecided and the rest for McCain. Keep in mind this is only one persons account. Also keep in mind, maybe alot of people that do not vote and registered are registering to vote against Bush. So this is not talking about voters already registered but only what one person is seeing as they keep tabs on what they are doing personally.

There is no official party affiliation in VA but i am hearing 250 thousand new voters in Va and 80% looks to be votting Obama. Remember these are unlikely voters the polls do not see. The states i feel that are going to be huge on who wins are Va, Nc, Nv, Co, In, and mo. Yes Fl, Oh and Pa is huge but McCain is "suppose" and must win Fl and Oh and Obama is "suppose" and must win Pa. The real race starts tonight with this debate. Each and every day is one day closer to someone new in the white house. Let's just hope that someone is Obama and brings change to someone that totally tried to bankrupt this country.