[chumdawg]

You are right that we will know a great deal at the first polls' closing. I figure that FL is going to go deep into the night just like it has in the last couple. Probably OH, too. But if Obama looks clearly ahead in MI and PA, and if VA is trending that way, it's probably safe to go ahead and hit the sack. NH would make the outcome a bit more likely--and NH is also a state that should be called fairly early--but in itself it won't say much of anything either way.

If FL and VA are both too close to call, then stay up, if you want, to watch CO and NV come in, but you should already know what the result will be.

Of course, this all assumes that Mac doesn't pull a rabbit out of his hat. It also assumes that a Dem runaway doesn't happen between now and then. If the first polls closing show Obama winning OH and VA, turn out the lights.