The reason (IMO) that Obama has seen his lead in the polls increase is simple. When the economy is in trouble, the party in the White House gets blamed. I don't think it's really any more complex than that.
Although I am vocally opposed to the bailout, if something doesn't happen relatively soon, I think Obama is going to sail to an easy victory.
As for the debate tonight, I agree with your analysis. Biden has to win handily, or it potentially has a negative impact on their campaign. And I don't think he'll win handily. Of course, does it really matter? The media will tell us he did.
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