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http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=1588

Capology And Captain Kidd
D-Lord On The Dollars And Sense Of J-Kidd's Future As A Mav
By David Lord -- DB.com

Among Jason Kidd’s strongest attributes? Timing.

The Mavs needed somebody to lead them past a favorite, to blend a team in a way that would outshine a shinier, newer point guard, and to overcome a stomach flu to make clutch 3-pointers, recover tons of loose balls and to commit just three turnovers(!) over the course of five games against the vaunted Spurs defense?
Timing. Which brings us to Kidd’s coming payday – and what we predict will happen.

It’s easy to get all overheated about this, one way or the other. The excitement of what Dallas just achieved. … Kidd’s age. … the way he’s bonded with Dirk. … and did we mention Kidd’s age?

And it’s natural for talk of J-Kidd’s present performance to morph into talk about J-Kidd’s future contract.

We think we know what the Mavs think of him. It is summarized in coach Rick Carlisle’s end-of-Round 1 quote:

“I can’t say enough about what he’s done for the team,’’ Carlisle said of Kidd. “His knowledge of the game, his knowledge of the team, him having the pulse of the team, all so critical. He’s really led our team.’’

What Fish has been saying the last few weeks about Kidd’s alerting of the Mavs’ BBIQ is stunningly true. Carlisle acknowledges it there. Owner Mark Cuban Tweeted the same sort of message, essentially congratulating the organization for pulling the trigger on the veteran basketball savant:

“How many starting point guards in the West under the age of 30 will be playing after Saturday?’’ Cuban said.

There’s a lot of emotion there. Understandably so, by the way.

Want more emotional thought? After G5, Jason Terry said: “Our goal is to win a championship. Obviously there is some urgency, with Jason Kidd probably not going to be with us next year. The time is now.’’ Whoa, little fella! One more quote before we get to the business of business. Note how Kidd approaches it as exactly that, a business, telling our friend Art Garcia that while he “loves Dallas,’’ he also “ want(s) to prove to the suitors I can still play at a high level and still help a team," he said, "especially a team that's close to winning a championship." Our job here: To try to approach Kidd’s contract future dispassionately and rationally and within the boundaries of what we believe to be reality. It’s Capology as it applies to Captain Kidd.

Reality 1 - First and foremost, this summer Kidd will be looking for a payday - not a team's coattails to ride to a chance at a title. The root of his departure from NJ had nothing to do with his play or age. Instead, it stemmed from NJ's refusal to give him an extension, in the context of them giving huge long-term deals to the other members of the NJ big 3 (Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson). That continued refusal incited Kidd's push for a trade and eventually the acrimony became so great they moved their leader to Dallas. Despite all the talk here and there, his goal has never changed; his highest priority is to get a new legitimate payday when this deal runs out, not a token paycheck from a theoretically better team.

Do we see any cause for concern in Jason Terry's statements yesterday that Kidd is "probably not going to be with us next year"? Not at all. Kidd is looking for money and doesn’t want to be a rent-a-player.’’ We think JET’s comments are mostly about creating a sense-of-urgency mindset. (In fact, JET cleared up his comments today in the DMNews).

Reality 2 - Who can offer him the biggest payday? The Mavs, by far. They are in control all the way, when it comes to money. As we've been stressing all along, Dallas has Bird rights on Kidd. In the aftermath of the JET comments, Cuban noted that fact. "In this market,'' that's everything,'' Cuban said.

What does it mean? It means they can offer him a new deal starting at any amount up to about $22.44M. Other teams will be limited to deals starting with their MLE (which is expected to be around $5.5M) if they are over the cap, or their cap room if they are far enough under the cap. That first category will include all the teams with the top records this year like the Lakers, Celts, Cavs, Magic, and so on. The only teams with cap room in excess of the MLE this summer are expected to be Detroit, Atlanta, Memphis, and Oklahoma City, none of whom appear to be as close as Dallas to a title run over the next few seasons.

Reality 3 - Who will want to offer him big money? Of the 4 teams noted above as having cap room to spend, it wouldn't appear likely that any of those 4 would make Kidd a priority and try to spend their cap room on him anyway. The rest of the teams can't offer him more than the MLE without the cooperation of the Mavs in a sign-and-trade scenario of some sort. Since Kidd is looking for a payday, the Mavs look to be the ones in control from this angle as well.

Reality 4 - Kidd's offers will all be for 3 years or less due to the over-36 rule. According to that rule, because Kidd is 36, the full value of any contract of 4 years or longer gets allotted into the first 3 years' cap accounting (and that increased cap number in years 1-3 must fit within the team's cap or MLE room). For practical purposes, that rules out the possibility of any team offering 4 years or longer.

Reality 5 - Could the Mavs sign him to an extension? In theory, yes, they could circumvent the free agency competition by working out an extension prior to July 1. An extension would be limited to one less year (five) than the longest possible new deal they could offer after July 1 (six), but because of the over-36 rule a deal longer than 3 years won't be discussed anyhow.

Reality 6 - Because of their significant advantage in the size of the contracts they could offer, the Mavs also have the opportunity to design creative contractual solutions that blow everyone else out of the water yet still make sense for the Mavs' future. For example, a deal with declining salaries in year 2-3 (the limit on a decrease would be 10.5% of the 1st year salary) could leave extra spending room to snag a prize from the big free agent class in the summer of 2010, while still totaling way more than Kidd can get elsewhere. And a deal with a year 3 that is only partially guaranteed (ala the current Stackhouse contract) could provide an option for big trade opportunities in the summer of 2011 if Kidd's play goes downhill in the interim. So for example the Mavs could offer him a 3-year deal with annual salaries of $10M, $9M, $8M (with only half or less of the money guaranteed in year 3), a deal that leaves them plenty of options while still almost certainly guaranteeing Kidd way more than anyone else can/will spend. There are a lot of ways to work the numbers if Kidd and the Mavs want to make things happen, in a way that makes everyone happy.

Reality 7 - The most advantageous path to the Mavs future likely revolves around decisions made this summer, not in 2010. Yes, in theory the team can angle for cap room in 2010, but to do so, they'd have to do the following: forego spending their 2009 MLE, let the Stackhouse contract reduce their payroll rather than someone else's, and choose between a new deal for Kidd or new deals for the youngsters they've been developing (Bass, Singleton, Hollins, and perhaps Green). However, if they instead make their splash in 2009, they can do all of the following: pluck a prize with their MLE (given how teams are angling for 2010 cap space, will an MLE or less get you a player like Ariza, Rasheed, McDyess, Artest, M Barnes, G Hill, Marion, Iverson, and so on?), use the Stackhouse contract to trade for another prize, and pay the money to bring back both Kidd plus all the developing talent.

The difference between the talent gained in those two scenarios is huge, with the only benefit to waiting to 2010 being if the Mavs truly believe they can snag a young superstar in 2010 free agency to take over carrying the team for the next 10 years, in the same fashion SA added Duncan to David Robinson in the summer of 1997. However, taking the 2009 plunge actually could be just as opportunistic in getting that 2010 free agent, in that it fills the talent cupboard full of sign-and-trade pieces, which would be useful in dealing with another team who is seeing they will lose their star in 2010 but is willing to do a trade to accept back talent rather than lose him for nothing.

Reality 8 - The bottom line is this: Kidd will be a Mav next year if Mark Cuban wants him back. His return will hinge on money - and the Mavs have the ability to offer far more than anyone else, combined with the ability to creatively structure things to their benefit as well as his. Will Cuban step up to the plate? No one can say for sure, but recent history tells us that when he likes a player and thinks he will make the team better, he's not shy in spending what it takes to keep them (if you don't believe that, ask Stackhouse, George, JET, and many others). And for all the talk you hear from Kidd about other destinations, accept those as attempts on his part to persuade Cuban to up the ante to a price that will keep him happily in Dallas.

Said GM Donnie Nelson: "We have every intention of having him back with the Mavericks."

There's your sense. There's your decision on dollars to come. And there's your essential end to the "controversy'' about Jason Kidd's future as a Mav.