Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
I don't understand how treading water until a gem shows up is any worse than completely dismantling a team and tanking for a first rounder. Obviously Cuban believes more in known talent in the form of free agents than he does in draft picks. Let's not pretend that shooting for a big FA and failing is a risky venture and tanking for draft picks isn't. Dirk's got 2-4 years left in him if he ever comes back the same player. By the time our first rounder from 2013 wears a Dallas uniform that is down to 1-3 years left for Dirk. Then add 2-3 years of development and you're basically rebuilding around the first rounder instead of Dirk.
That also assumes that the draft pick actually works out and I'd put our odds slightly below the average in the lottery. Of the first-overall draft picks between 1998-2008 (who should have the best odds of becoming stars and who have had time to develop that 2-3years), only 4 of 11 (36%) have been allstars (Rose, LeBron, Howard, Ming) and 20% have retired from injury. (Ming/Oden)
And that trend is even more dramatic when you look at the entire lottery. Roughly 18% of picks 1-15 ever make an all-star game and only 50% stay in the league much after their rookie contract. Those odds aren't particularly good, particularly because tanking for worst record would completely decimate our fan base and drive away any of the free agents that might have considered coming here. Also consider that the worst team only got the first pick 4 out of 28 times (14%) in the last 28 years, and 2/19 (10.5%) since 1994 (when the odds were improved), it's not even a sure thing that a team that tanks will even get a first-overall, despite having a 25% statistical chance.
All that bad mojo only gets us a 25% chance of first overall (11% historically) and a first-overall pick only pans out roughly 36% of the time. Is that a good gamble compared to trying to keep Mayo and securing a bigger FA this summer or pulling a big trade at the deadline?
number of all-stars in the lottery by year
2008- 3/15 (20%) Rose 1st, Westbrook 4th, Love 5th,
2007- 1/15 (7%) Durant 2nd
2006- 2/15 (13%) Aldridge 2nd, Roy 6th
2005- 2/15 (13%) Paul 4th, Deron 3rd, Bynum 10th
2004- 2/15 Howard 1st, Deng 7th
2003- 5/15 (33%) Lebron 1st, Carmelo 3rd, Bosh 4th, Wade 5th, Kaman 6th
2002- 3/15 (20%) Ming 1st, Stoudamire 9th, Butler 10th
2001- 2/15 (13%) Gasol 3rd, Johnson 10th
2000- 0/15 (0%)
1999- 5/15 (33%) Brand 1st, Francis 2nd, Davis 3rd, Hamilton 7th, Marion 9th
1998- 4/15 (27%) Jamison 4th, Carter 5th, Dirk 9th, Pierce 10th
Only 18% (29/165) of players from the last 11 lottery drafts have gone on to appear in even one allstar game.Even in the two best years in recent memory ('99 and '03) lottery teams only had a 1/3 c hance of securing an all-star.So even if we were to secure the worst record, we'd only have a 25% chance (11% historically) to secure a first-overall pick and first overall picks have only panned out 40% of the time. Of course with the worst record, we'd be guaranteed a lottery pick but those only pan out at about a rate of 18% historically (1998-2008) and EVEN IF we did secure a future all-star, the likelihood that they'd reach that level before Dirk retires is minuscule.
1) Tanking basically gives up on Dirk because it depends on draft picks that will take time, while playing the free-agent lottery is just as risky but may give us a chance during Dirk's career
2) Tanking for worst record only gives us a 25% chance (10.5% historically with current odds) of drafting the first-overall guy who has a 36% chance of being an allstar and/or a lottery pick who have only panned out 18% of the time.
3) Tanking destroys the brand, alienates fans and leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouths-- including FAs that have finally warmed to Dallas.
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